Four levels of uncertainty

1. Statistical uncertainty Scenario Uncertainty Recognised Ignorance Total Ignorance Four levels of uncertainty

2. It is complex!

3. Prudence Rationality Sensitivity “Giving meaning to ‘things’ you cannot describe”

4. Self-organised Criticality (SOC) Return period T in years

5. Effect Climate Change Standard Return period T in years

6. Three points approach Spatial planning and urban planning (thinking beyond the norms) Technical (sewer) facilities Day to day values Return period T in years

7. Three points approach • Innovative ideas for robust cities • Interaction with town planners, architects, designers, etc. • Integration on meso level • Interaction between water and sewer specialists • Collecting data (micro level) • Using models (macro level) • Taking tacit knowledge into account • Collecting stories on micro level • Bringing stories in into the meso level integration • Giving new stories (narratives) back to the people (residents, politicians, etc.) Return period T in years