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SWG Resource Team: Supply-side Resources for the 2022 Common Case

SWG Resource Team: Supply-side Resources for the 2022 Common Case. Thomas Carr Western Interstate Energy Board July 21, 2011. Outline. Task: Identify the 2022 generation portfolio Load Assumptions BA load forecasts Loads applicable to states/provinces RPS renewable energy requirements

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SWG Resource Team: Supply-side Resources for the 2022 Common Case

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  1. SWG Resource Team:Supply-side Resources for the 2022 Common Case Thomas Carr Western Interstate Energy Board July 21, 2011

  2. Outline Task: Identify the 2022 generation portfolio • Load Assumptions • BA load forecasts • Loads applicable to states/provinces • RPS renewable energy requirements • RPS statutes/regulations • Deriving total RPS energy • Specifying the renewable portfolio • IRP/Resource planner survey by LBNL • CA CPUC modeling • Loads and resource balance • Subregional spreadsheet model • Meeting peak loads • Planning margins

  3. SWG Resource Team: Identify the 2022 generation portfolio • TEPPC develops assumptions to run a production cost model (Promod) of the western power grid for the year 2022 (Generation, Loads, Transmission) • Generation • New generation – Resource Team of SWG • Existing generation – TEPPC database • Retirements – • Standard retirements – LRS, Data WG, LBNL • OTC policy (Data WG, CA stakeholders)

  4. 1. Load Assumptions • Start with Balancing Authority (BA) loads supplied to WECC’s Loads and Resources Subcommittee (LRS) • BAs submit new 10-year forecasts to WECC in March • TEPPC load assumptions based on BA load forecasts • 36 BAs with loads • SPSC’s DSM Work Group & WECC effort to refine BA loads to identify DSM state/federal policies that may or may not be in the BA load forecasts

  5. BA Loads reported to LRS

  6. 1. Load Assumptions cont. • Convert to state load forecast 2022 • Most BAs fully within a state or province • But 8 BAs cover 2 or more states • Data on BA split among states • Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) – FERC Form 1 • BPA and Western Area Power Administration – provided information on splits • Adjust for line losses to estimate retail sales

  7. 2. RPS Requirements to Renewable Energy • RPS statutes / regulations • 10 states in the Western Interconnection with RPS • AZ, CA, CO, MT, NV, NM, OR, TX, UT, WA • BC and AB have policies but not the RPS-type • Many similarities but all different • DSIRE website summarizes RPS provisions by each state • http://www.dsireusa.org/ • Develop a summary table for reference

  8. SWG precedents on RPS • RPS% with discrete jump (e.g. 15% to 20%); • Pro rate with linear path • For 2022, applies to NV, OR and UT • UT RPS sets 2025 target without interim requirements • Prorate with linear path • NV RPS allows ¼ to be met through energy efficiency • Assume ¼ of gross RPS met by energy efficiency • CO grants 125% credit to instate generation • Assume all instate with 125% credit to RPS

  9. Methodology to Derive RPS Energy • Derived state load forecast 2020 from BA loads • State RPS rules may differ by sectors • IOUs, Coops, Publics/Municipals, Others • Adjust state load by % shares using EIA data • Multiply each share by appropriate RPS%

  10. 3. Specifying the Renewable Portfolio for the Common Case • Specify TEPPC base case resources to meet RPS requirements in applicable states • Strategy to specify renewables for the TEPPC base case • IRP/Plans • Utility IRP information, resource planners • LRS data on renewable projects • California • CA PUC modeling

  11. LBNL IRP/Resource Planner Review • LBNL reviewing IRPs of LSEs • Resource Planners’ Forum presentation and contacts developed • Studies WG to use LBNL data/results into specification of resources by state

  12. Example of Incremental Generation Worksheet: 2011-2022

  13. Example of Retirements Worksheet: 2011-2022

  14. 4. Load & Resources Balance • General peak load methodology • Gap = [Peak load + planning margin] – Generation at peak • 2007/2008 relied on WECC-wide peak load-resource balance without transmission constraints • 2009 shifted to Subregional analysis of loads & resources

  15. Subregional Loads & Resource Analysis • Subregional Load-Resource Methodology • WECC staff developed spreadsheet model with 7 subregions • Summer and winter subregional coincident peaks • planning margins for each subregion • discounted capacity factors for each subregion. • Model derives an initial gap for each subregion • Adjustment for trade flows between subregions • Flows identified on major transmission paths at peak period • Estimated net imports to derive an adjusted gap • Lack of data on firm trade flows between regions • Did not rely on subregional model to set generation limits

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