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INDEPENDENT, INFORMED & INTERNATIONAL GFMS Limited – Precious Metals - Paul Walker CEO

Precious Metals & Jewellery Who needs Who? Dr Paul Walker 3 rd Dubai City of Gold Conference Dubai, 21-22 February 2005. THE GFMS GROUP. INDEPENDENT, INFORMED & INTERNATIONAL GFMS Limited – Precious Metals - Paul Walker CEO GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd – Base Metals – Neil Buxton Director

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INDEPENDENT, INFORMED & INTERNATIONAL GFMS Limited – Precious Metals - Paul Walker CEO

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  1. Precious Metals & JewelleryWho needs Who?Dr Paul Walker3rd Dubai City of Gold Conference Dubai, 21-22 February 2005

  2. THE GFMS GROUP • INDEPENDENT, INFORMED & INTERNATIONAL • GFMS Limited – Precious Metals - Paul Walker CEO • GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd – Base Metals – Neil Buxton Director • GFMS Mining and Exploration Limited – Richard Napier Director • GFMS Analytics Limited – regular analysis of all the metals markets but focus on precious - Rhona O’ Connell Director • Coming soon, GFMS Consumer Research Limited – focus on consumer research covering the jewellery and investment markets.

  3. 17 Analysts + Consultants; full-time representation in UK, India, China, Australia & Russia.Not just desk-based: Over 40 countries visited in the last 12 months. More than 7,000 meetings since 1996.Annual Gold, Silver and now also Platinum & Palladium Surveys GFMS’ Unique Research Capabilities & Programme

  4. Presentation Outline • Historical relationship between jewellery demand and metal supply • Who are making the money? – a look at the value chain • Important macro trends for jewellery • Conclusions

  5. Jewellery demand as a proportion of total supply in 2004* *Based on GFMS preliminary 2004 data

  6. The value of metal used in jewellery in 2004* *Based on GFMS preliminary 2004 data

  7. Jewellery – global market size?

  8. Jewellery Demand 24,500 tonnes Mine Output 13,000 tonnes Gold: jewellery & mine output - An historical perspective

  9. Gold jewellery & mine supply *Based on GFMS preliminary 2004 data

  10. Mine Output 93,000 tonnes Jewellery Demand 98,700 tonnes And for silver? – demand covers supply…

  11. Mine Output 430 tonnes Jewellery Demand 330 tonnes What about Platinum?Well, nearly the same story…

  12. Average prices over the same 20 year period * US Dollar Major Currency Index – base year 1973 = 100

  13. China- Jewellery Margins(Fabricator)(Basis US$860/oz and US$411/oz metals prices)

  14. China- Jewellery Margins(Retailing)(Basis US$860/oz and US$411/oz metals prices)

  15. But does the jewellery industry need support? Competition for Jewellery • technology goods • travel • luxury consumer goods • other new products Mega trends • women’s earning power • men’s jewellery • age at marriage • leisure hours • investment background • Demographic changes

  16. Precious metals & JewelleryWho needs Who? • All metals have relied upon jewellery demand to soak up increased mine supply. • Jewellery as a ‘spend’ category is under threat. • Marketing expenditure does not appear to be coordinated nor monitored. • More strategic, independent research on the jewellery sector is needed. Some Conclusions

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