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Subsidies for a better Labour Market

Subsidies for a better Labour Market. António Murta. Agenda. 1- Introduction 2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model 3- The impact of technology 4- Demographics and longevity 5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? 6- My own perspective 7- A look into the future.

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Subsidies for a better Labour Market

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  1. Subsidies for a better Labour Market António Murta

  2. Agenda 1- Introduction 2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model 3- The impact of technology 4- Demographics and longevity 5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? 6- My own perspective 7- A look into the future

  3. Introduction Regulatory pressures TO-BE Labour Market AS-IS Labour Market The forces that shape it Individual awareness Challenge: what can we do to make the labour market a better one?

  4. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 Technology 5 Social change 2 Labour Market Globalization 4 3 Demographics and longevity Energy resources

  5. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 • Cloud services/ PAAS • Convergence (Digital) • High added-value automation • Internet of Things: quantum digital leap Technology 5 Social change 2 Labour Market Globalization 4 3 Demographics and longevity Energy resources

  6. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 Technology 5 Social change 2 Labour Market Globalization • 24x7 • $: old-rich → new-rich • Education powerhouses: • China + India • Urbanization ↑ 4 3 Demographics and longevity Energy resources

  7. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 Technology 5 Social change 2 Labour Market Globalization 4 3 Demographics and longevity Energy resources • Words population growth ↑↑ (!) • Demographic paterns of the old-rich ↓ • Longevity ↑ • Wellfare state = non-sustainable in the present form

  8. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 Technology 5 Social change 2 Labour Market Globalization 4 3 Demographics and longevity Energy resources • Energy prices ↑ • Sustainability emerging as a key trend • Need for a massive transformation of the energy value chain

  9. The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model 1 Technology 5 Social change • Role of women as leaders • Lack of trust on institutions (including democracy) • Family (reinvented) • Growing social awareness 2 Labour Market Globalization 3 4 Demographics and longevity Energy resources

  10. The impact of technology Man – machine divide line and the effect of innovation (over time) on it - Man – machine divide line MachineTerritory Cost of $ The effect of innovation over time Man Territory + • Cost of human labour • Kurtzweil: singularity = 2045? - +

  11. The impact of technology Cloud services: creation of a truly global labour market P1 P1 P2 input output input output • Location does not matter (customer, worker) • Virtual value chains • Quality = Y (costs, levels of service)

  12. The impact of technology Unified Umbrella brand and digital interface VOICE DATA INTERNET TV MOVIES MUSIC MAGAZINES BOOKS TICKETS HOME CONTROL ENERGY SECURITY WELL BEING HEALTH CARE EXPENSES Digital convergence: 3-Play 20-Play (from Telco to Digital Distribution)

  13. Demographics and longevity 9 Billion people 7 Billion people !!! Earth Earth 2010 2050 Simply the biggest threat that we all face

  14. Demographics and longevity • The European wellfare state is not sustainable anymore…. • No growth or limited growth • Demographics working against it • Implications on immigration policy • Danger of generational clashes • (David Willets =2030?)

  15. What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? SHIFT 1 From generalist to expert (IP Focus) SHIFT 2 From isolated competition to active networker SHIFT 3 From unbalanced consumer to passionate producer

  16. My own perspective Flexibility (to gain time) 1 2 4 Politics Change Management on the Labour Market Expanded entrepreneurship Personal awareness 3 How can we diminuish the risks of isolation/ Social exlusion? Global regulation

  17. My own perspective • Gerhard Schroder • Protection of employment • Attitude change: entrepreneurs + workers • You can only do it if you can fund it (previous savings)! Flexibility (to gain time) 1 4 2 Politics Change Managment on the Labour Market Expanded entrepreneurship Personal awareness 3 Global regulation

  18. My own perspective Flexibility (to gain time) 1 4 2 Politics Change Managment on the Labour Market Expanded entrepreneurship Personal awareness 3 • Continuous education • To save for the end of the life (back to history) • Work for a longer total time • Opportunities for the seniors Global regulation

  19. My own perspective Flexibility (to gain time) 1 4 2 Politics Change Managment on the Labour Market Expanded entrepreneurship Personal awareness 3 • Global adoption of a level of wellfare state (OMT/OMC) • Upper limits (Max) on salary bandwidth • If we do not regulate it .… we will get proteccionism (by zones) Global regulation

  20. My own perspective Flexibility (to gain time) 1 4 2 Politics Change Managment on the Labour Market Expanded entrepreneurship Personal awareness • Entrepreneur ≠ worker • Levels of entrepreneurship • SMES, lots of them • Eco-systems with large numbers of affiliated SMES 3 Global regulation

  21. A look into the future Alibaba Public etendering Medical Media- Center? Robotics Neurosurgeon Product Metadata Repositories …

  22. Bibliography “The Shift”, Lynda Gratton, 2011, Hapercollins “The new division of labour”, F. Levy and R. Murnane, 2004, Princeton Press “The singularity is near”, R. Kurtzweil, 2009 “The future of work”, T. Malone, 2004, Harvard Press “Employment: a fix that functions”, R. Atkin, M. Steinglass, 04/08/2011, Financial Times “The age of specialization”, T. Malone, R. Laubacher, T. Johns, July-August 2011, Harvard Business Review “Special Report: The future of jobs”, The Economist, September 10th 2011

  23. THANK YOU!

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