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A  A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; liakhov@hydromet.ru

COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES.

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A  A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; liakhov@hydromet.ru

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  1. COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES. A  A. Liakhov,Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; liakhov@hydromet.ru V. V. Oganesyan, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, oganesian@mecom.ru K. G. Rubinstein, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, rubin@mecom.ru

  2. TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Moscow - -0.01 St-Petersburg – 0.02 Yekaterinburg – 0.03 Rostov – 0.03 Tomsk – 0.00

  3. TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Moscow – 0.07 St-Petersburg – 0.00 Yekaterinburg – 0.05 Rostov – 0.04 Tomsk – 0.04

  4. TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Moscow – 0.07 St-Petersburg – 0.00 Yekaterinburg – 0.08 Rostov - -0.010 Tomsk – 0.00

  5. TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL AMPLITUDES OF THE TEMPERATURE EXTREMES Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Moscow - -0.09 St-Petersburg – 0.00 Yekaterinburg – 0.00 Rostov – 0.00 Tomsk - -0.07

  6. EMPIRICALAND MODEL SIMULATED DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND VALUES OF THE TEMPERATURE FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD SIMULATED PRECIPITATIONS EMPIRICAL PRECIPITATIONS SIMULATED TEMPERATURE EMPIRICAL TEMPERATURE

  7. EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Emp Mod Moscow 0.05 0.00 St-Petersburg 0.11 0.09 Yekaterinburg 0.10 0.09 Rostov -0.12 -0.09 Tomsk 0.03 0.07

  8. EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Emp Mod Moscow 0.02 -0.10 St-Petersburg 0.25 0.03 Yekaterinburg 0.20 0.15 Rostov -0.10 -0.05 Tomsk 0.05 0.01

  9. EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m Emp Mod Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173 Moscow -0.65 0.20 St-Petersburg 0.75 -0.52 Yekaterinburg 0.61 0.60 Rostov 0.44 0.00 Tomsk 0.25 -0.12

  10. ANGLE COEFFICIENTS FOR DISCOVERED TRENDS FOR EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DATA OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ANNUAL EXTREMES

  11. Summary and conclusions Climate changes are more significant for extremes of the minimum of the daily temperature (increase 0.04-0.07°C per year) than for extremes of the maximum of the daily temperature (increase 0.02-0.03°C per year). Variability (dispersion) of the values of the minimum of the daily temperature approximately twice as many as variability (dispersion) of the values of the maximum of the daily temperature for the all cities. Frequency of the extremes of the minimum and maximum of the daily temperature for the all seasons as whole for the XX-th-XXI centuries has decreased, but intensity of the extremes of daily precipitation totals has increased. The comparison of the statistical characteristics of the observed extreme values with model data allowed to determine the differences, first of all in characteristics of the model precipitation. The analyses of the received temporal trends showed, that in the whole, the climate of big cities of Russia for the period under consideration becomes more moderate and damp. This conclusion as a whole confirms the results of modeling.

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