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An introduction to the OECD Development Centre

An introduction to the OECD Development Centre. Javier Santiso, Deputy Director and Chief Economist, OECD Development Centre. European Commission Brussels  12 September 2006. A bridge between OECD Members and Partners …. … to engage in dialogue on development issues

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An introduction to the OECD Development Centre

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  1. An introduction to theOECD Development Centre Javier Santiso, Deputy Director and Chief Economist, OECD Development Centre European Commission Brussels 12 September 2006

  2. A bridge between OECD Members and Partners … … to engage in dialogue on development issues of mutual strategic interest … … and foster capacity building in policy development

  3. The OECD’s Knowledge Centre on Development A bridge between … • … OECD members and partners Governing Board open to non-OECD: South Africa, Brazil, Chile, India, Romania, Thailand are members • … research and policy Intellectual autonomy, no obligation of consensus • … policy communities All development policies, not just aid • … different actors (private, public, etc.) Informal dialogue

  4. Part of the OECD’s Development Cluster OECD Development Cluster • Club of bilateral donors • Best practice • Peer reviews • Bridge OECD members and partners • Research / policy • Intellectual autonomy • Informal dialogue Development Centre (DEV - 1962) Development Assistance Committee (DAC - 1961) Africa Partnership Forum (APF - 2006) Sahel & West Africa Club (SAH - 1975) Informal discussion Forum OECD / ECOWAS + Mauritania & Cameroon Monitoring commitments G8/OECD – AU/NEPAD

  5. Programme of Work 2005-2006 Monitoring economic Performance (AEO …) Strengthening productive capacity building Development Finance Horizontal, e.g.: Impact of China & India on Africa, Agricultural policy, Impact of migrations … Governance, institutions Policy coherence Monitoring public opinion

  6. African Economic Outlook:monitoring the performance of African economies • A resource for policy makers, researchers, students, investors, … • A tool for policy dialogue amongst African partners (APRM, …) and with their partners (EC, G8, OECD) • An innovative product (new indicators …) • An innovative process (tri-partnership OECD-ADB-EC, network of African experts, gradual transfer 2002-07…)

  7. African Economic Outlook 2006 European Commission Brussels 12 September 2006

  8. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 3 Promoting Transport Infrastructure

  9. What is the AEO Project? • Joint Publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 5th edition. • Independent, comprehensive and comparative analysis of 30 countries, combining economic, social and political review and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. • An input for African policy makers, incl. NEPAD APRM, aid practitioners and investors. • Annual focus on major theme (2006: transport infrastructure; 2007: access to drinking water and sanitation). • Improvements in successive editions (peer-review process, improved modelling, broader country coverage…)

  10. Tunisia Morocco Algeria AEO 2006 Libya Egypt Mauritania Niger Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Guinea-Bissau Burkina Faso Djibouti Guinea Togo Nigeria Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire SierraLeone Central African Republic Liberia Cameroon Ghana Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Congo Gabon Kenya Rwanda Burundi Dem.Rep. Congo Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Mauritius Madagascar Namibia Botswana Swaziland Lesotho South Africa Coverage 2006: 30 African countries 90% of GDP 87% of population

  11. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 3 Promoting Transport Infrastructure

  12. Africa’s growth remains robust % AFRICA Total OECD Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006, IMF, OECD

  13. Oil producing countries are leading growth Performance of oil producers (%) (%) Source: African Economic Outlook 2006

  14. Oil importers performed better than expected Best Performers in 2005 (%) (%) Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

  15. Thanks to rising commodity prices and increased production Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

  16. Thanks to good harvest … and better internal policies Inflation is under control (%) Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

  17. Fiscal discipline

  18. … and increased political stability Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 Political Indicators

  19. A divided Africa

  20. Despite recent improvements, major development challenges remain …Africa is still behind in reaching the MDGs Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

  21. Africa receives about 50 per cent of total aid 0.40 0.36 140 0.35 0.33 120 0.30 0.30 0.26 100 ODA as a % 0.25 of GNI 80 (left scale) ODA (2004 $ billion) % of GNI 0.22 0.20 Total ODA 60 (right scale) 0.15 40 0.10 Total ODA to 20 0.05 Africa (right scale) 0.00 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1996 2007 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2008 2009 2010 Source: OECD/DAC Statistics (2006). DAC Members’ ODA: 1990-2004 and simulations to 2006 and 2010, based on Monterrey and subsequentcommitments

  22. …with ODA increases driven by debt relief and emergency assistance Total net official development assistance (ODA), non-aid official flows and private flows in Africa, 1993-2004. (Source: OECD/DAC)

  23. Progress in diversifying exports is varied Morocco Tunisia Kenya Tanzania Africa Ethiopia 1996 2003 Uganda 0 10 20 30 40 50 The higher the index, the more diversified the economy SACU Madagascar Senegal Cameroon Mozambique Cote d'Ivoire 1996 2003 Algeria 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: Export Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2006

  24. Long term development requires capitalising on windfall gains & mobilising additional resources to finance productive activities, including… transport infrastructure

  25. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 3 Promoting Transport Infrastructure

  26. Improve mobility Free time Improve mobility Reduce prices Better use of networks Project selection Women benefit the most Better supply of food,water & medicines Better supplies & staff Faster hospitalisation

  27. Missing links … Source: Pourtier (2003)

  28. Transport & insurance costs as % of trade value IMPORT OECD Countries EXPORT All Developing Countries All land locked Developing SSA Coastal countries SSA Landlocked SSA Least Developed Landlocked Source: Faye, McArthur, Sachs and Snow (2004) and UNCTAD (2003) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

  29. Critical condition of all transport modes • Road • Only 19% is paved (against 27% in lat Am & 43% in South Asia) • 4% of registered vehicles, 10% of total deaths • Accidents cost 3% of GDP every year in Egypt • Rail • 3.5% of developing countries passenger flows, but 20% of GDP & population • Air • <2% of developing countries passenger and freight flows • Few airports with international standard • 4.5% of traffic, 25% of accidents • Ports • Most ports are under equipped and have reached maximum capacity • Inefficient: ZAF (17 c.u/h), Dar es Salam (21) ≠ Brazil (42)

  30. Shift in ODA to social sectors

  31. Infrastructure is back on donors’ agenda • Decline in the 1990’s of bilateral ODA, not compensated by multilateral flows • Shift of attention to poverty reduction (MDGs) • Disappointment over past experiences • Renewed interest as shown by report by Commission for Africa and UN Millennium Summit • Bilateral donors insist on linkage between infrastructure & poverty reduction and leverage for private funds (ex: the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund) • Increased involvement of non traditional donors (China, Arab countries)

  32. PPP experiences in transport • Prompted by lack of public finance and lack of access to international financial markets, although second-generation road fundsand investment of windfall gainsare helping • Not full privatisation but concession & management contracts to allow better risk sharing in volatile environment • Positive outcome with respect to transport service delivery(ex: cargo handling) • Under certain conditions (high private sector stake), privatisation of infrastructure is successful (ex. toll road of Maputo corridor) • In most cases, investment in infrastructure remains public

  33. Money is not enough • Strong regulation needed • Strong commitment / negotiation skills • Autonomous regulatory body (ex. Zambia) • Better planning (ex. Master Plan for Greater Cairo) • Selection of projects and solve trade-offs • Integration in poverty reduction strategy & medium-term expenditure framework • Community participation • Maximising employment generation and easing maintenance • Gender dimension is crucial (ensure participation) • Regional cooperation • Economies of scale • Partnering with NEPAD & regional organisations

  34. Thank you for your attention!Contacts:www.afdb.orgwww.oecd.org/dev/aeo

  35. Top ODA beneficiaries 103.9 Zambia (7) 1823.1 Ethiopia 102.7 Senegal (8) 1815.0 Congo, Dem. Rep. 90.3 Djibouti (9) 1746.0 89.1 Tanzania Namibia (10) 84.6 1457.7 Angola (11) Egypt 73.2 Madagascar (12) 1357.6 Ghana 67.4 Sierra Leone (13) 1235.8 Madagascar 65.7 Ghana (14) 1228.4 65.4 Mozambique Mozambique (15) 63.1 1159.0 Uganda Mauritania (16) 62.5 Liberia (17) 1144.1 Angola 60.6 Equatorial Guinea (18) 1081.0 Zambia ODA per capita (USD) Net ODA Receipts (USD million) Source: OECD/DAC, 2006

  36. Composition of ODA in top ODA beneficiaries SOCIAL ECONOMIC PRODUCTION MULTISECTOR GENERAL PROGRAMME AID DEBT EMERGENCY OTHERS 34 1 3 11 40 10 1 Congo Dem. Rep. Egypt 25 31 9 9 17 10 Ethiopia 28 13 6 4 27 7 15 Ghana 28 4 5 1 10 52 Tanzania 42 16 2 5 17 15 2 Zambia 31 15 8 3 5 38 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: OECD/DAC, 2006

  37. Transport in Africa & the world Source: African Economic Outlook 2006 and various sources

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