Risk analysis: A tool for animal health prevention.

1. Risk analysis: A tool for animal health prevention. EpiWorking Group Meeting Cuba, 8-12/Dic./2008 Dra. María Irian Percedo Abreu percedo@censa.edu.cu Center of Animal and Plant Health (CENSA) Center of Training to Sanitary Disasters Reduction in Animals and Plants (CEDESAP) REDesastres (Disaster-NetWork) redesastres@censa.edu.cu

2. “Around a third of the world exports of meat, equivalent to 6 million TM, it suffers in these moments the consequences of different buds of animals diseases” The major animals diseases can rebound seriously in the productivity and the animal production, in the trade of animals, meat and other products of animal origin, as well as in the human health, in the case of the zoonoses, and in consequence, in the general process of the economic development of the countries. Value of the world trade of meat and animals (with exclusion of the internal trade of the European Union) 33 000 millions USD Losses 10 000 millions USD

3. Speed of the means of transport. The international traffic of passengers. Mundo Economías desarrolladas Economías en desarrollo The trade of animals, products of by-products of animal origin. Años Risk factors One million persons travels internationaly every day, and another million goes from developed to developing countries and viceversa every week. More than 700 millions tourists every year Global Trade / Exports (Billones $)

4. 75 % Zoonoses "The climatic change not alone has an impact in the alimentary security, but rather it can also influence in the development and the worsening of the animals diseases and the plagues" Global increase of sanitary risk • More frecuency of transboundary diseases of greats impacts. • Increase of emergent and remergent diseases. • Institutional weakness of veterinary and public health services as a consecuences of the budget decreases by the neoliberal politics. • Continous increase of disasters situations and change climatic forecasts:

5. EpiWorking Group Meeting Cuba, 8-12/Dic./2008 A review of the differents applications of risk analysis in animal health. • The analysis of the risk in the strategy of prevention, and early warning and reaction in front to transboundary diseases of interest for the animal and the public health. • Procedures for the analysis of the risk linked to the import of commodities of animal origin • System of Analysis of Biological Risk (SARB). Methodology for the territorial analysis of the risk of transboundary diseases in the animal population. • Qualitative risk analysis: Basic course and practical examples. Dr. Javier Guitián (Royal Veterinary College, UK)

6. Application of the risk analysis to the trade • To make decisions regarding the imports of animals, products and by-products of animal origin (Importer country). • To base the condition of Free of specific disease in front to the international trade: country, region or area. (Exporter country).

7. Others applications of the risk analysis • To identify risk and vulnerability factors in order to adopt measures for their prevention or reduction in the different sanitary barriers in each country. • To identify the most vulnerable areas to the impact of a transboundary diseases. • To strengthen the structure and the veterinary services in the higher epidemic risk places. • To guide the strategy for the epidemiological surveillance and the control.

8. !The tasks of the VS at national and local level !? 1999 MANUAL ON THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL ANIMAL DISEASE EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PLANS Chapter 3 RISK ANALYSIS AS A COMPONENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PLANNING • Principles of risk analysis • Who should carry out the risk analyses? • Risk assessment for emergency animal diseases • The value of risk assessments for animal disease emergency preparedness planning

9. DEVELOP CAPACITIES TO: Good Emergency Management Practices

10. Hazard Identification Risk Evaluation RISK INFORMATION Risk analysis principles Risk Management The transboundary animal diseases are threats of potencial sanitary disasters RISK Disaster = THREAT X VULNERABILITY Cuban experience: The application of the similar principles to management the reduction of risks and vulnerability factors of sanitary emergency

11. VULNERABILITY OF THE ORB THREAT Presence of ORB VULNERABILITY OF ANIMAL POPULATION A MUNICIPALLY-BASED MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF RISKS POSED BY TRANSBOUNDARY DISEASES TO THE ANIMAL POPULATION IN CUBA Methodology ORB or BPR Biological Risk Places

12. THREAT (T): Related to the presence of places for the potential introduction and dissemination of transboundary diseases (Biological Risk Places – BRP). ORB in Spanish Components of the risk • VULNERABILITY: Related to deficiencies (sanitary breaches) in the protection and control systems established for: • Biological Risk Places – BRP • Animal population

13. VULNERABILITY: • Animal population Related to the vulnerability of elements (animals) exposed to risks. It is evaluated according to the characteristics of animal production systems, animal disease control activities and geographic characteristics of the region, among other factors.

14. Biological Risk Place (BRP or ORB) The places with risk to introduction and/or disemination of transboundary animal diseases in each country

15. TYPES OF BRP (ORB)(20)

16. There are a formtoevaluatethecumpliment of sanitarymeasuresbyeachBRP´stypes. Wheneachactionconsideredisevaluated as deficient, it´sconsidered as a SANITARY BREACH in theprotectiononspecific BRP. Theevaluationof theVULNERABILITY OF THE BIOLOGICAL RISK PLACE

17. A. Structure of animal production in the region.(4) B. Sanitary control of animal population.(7) C. Aspects related to urbanization of animal rearing.(3) D. General characteristics of the region.(3) ThefactorstoevaluationANIMAL POPULATION VULNERABILITY

18. A.2 - Predominant economic type of animal production A.1 - Density of animal population A.4 - Predominant type of animal movement A.3 - Predominant system of animal production A. STRUCTURE OF ANIMAL PRODUCTION

19. B.1 -The level of veterinary diagnostics B.2 - Quality of biosecurity B.5 - Speed of notification to Veterinary Services B.7 - Complete staff at the local level of Veterinary Services B. SANITARY CONTROL OF ANIMAL POPULATION. B.3 - Control of the animal trafic B. 4 – Delivery information to Veterinary Services B. 6 -The level of medical assistance provided by local Veterinary Services

20. C.1 - Qualitative estimate of animal population in urban areas C. ASPECTS RELATED TO URBANIZATION OF ANIMAL REARING C.3 - Waste collection and disposal practices C.2 - Control of vectors and reservoirs

21. D.1 – Ratio of rural to urban areas D. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TERRITORY D.3 - Predominant geographic topography D.2 - Transportation infrastructure and other means of access

22. LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH 3 - 4 5 - 7 8 - 10 11 -12 Evaluation of the General Biological Risk Index (GBRI)

23. SYSTEM OF BIOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS ( SARB, in Spanish) 2003: Finish of the national process of its implementation at municipality level. (169 municipalities in all the country)

24. The Program of the meeting included : • The Practical Experiences in Matanzas and Villa Clara provinces with the application of the Methodology for the territorial analysis of the risk of transboundary diseases in the animal population (System of Analysis of Biological Risk - SARB).

31. General Conclusions • The territorial risk analysis developed by Cuba takes into account the threat, the vulnerability of the biological risk place and of the vulnerability of the animal population. • The results of the risk analysis are used by the local veterinary authorities cuban to strengthen the plans of preventive and reaction measures against sanitary emergencies of transboundary animal diseases. • The risk analysis is a necessary tool in the process decision-making linked to trade. • Risk based surveillance uses risk assessment to focus surveillance. Prioritization of the hazards or targeting of the sample population can be performed to improve the ability to detect a problem (selection of the hazards, risk based sampling based on risk factor studies).

32. Recomendaciones • Part of territorial risk analysis could be of use for other countries, in particular the methodology which lists the places at risk and their potential vulnerability. • A methodology manual could be developed in English on the basis of the manual written by Cuba and provided to the Caribbean countries for them to be able to collect necessary information for any risk analysis studies. • As a first step, conduct census in each country with the assistance of CaribVET and FAO- It is neccesary for an early reaction and limitation of the adverse effects in case of emergency (as well as for designing and interpreting epidemiological surveillance/control programmes).   • Conduct several risk analysis studies with the support of the EpiGroup and experts.