3 rd phase was launched (in April 2006) by the Cabinet

1. Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st century(KAKUSHIN Program)Secretariat of the Research Coordination Committee of the ProgramFrontier Research Center for Global ChangeJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

2. 3rd phase was launched (in April 2006) by the Cabinet The same 4 fields were prioritized again for promotionas in the 2nd phase besides basic sciences: - Life science; -Information and Communications; -Environment;and -Nanotechnology: National core technology studies/projects were also identified for overarching or cross-cutting themes. Background of national strategy :3rd phase (FY2006-FY2010)ofthe Science and Technology Basic Plan

3. Promotional prioritization was formulated by the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)*: Climate change research (including climate change mitigation technology), Chemical substance risk and security management research, Water/material cycle and watershed, ecosystem management research, 3R (reduce, reuse and recycle) technology research, Biomass usage and utilization research ------------------------------------------------------- * established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, chaired by the Prime Minister, with members of 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts Areas further prioritized inEnvironment

4. P1:Integrated monitoring studies on global warming P2:Climate change process studies P3:Future projectionof global warmingand building of data base from climate change research outcomes P4:Studies on global warmingimpact,risk assessment, and adaptation measures P5:Studies on global scale water cycle variabilities P6:Studies on mitigation policies Climate Change Researchcategorized into: Reliable climate change projection and impact assessment with better managed global Earth observation

5. Emerging Backgrounds from the IPCC/ AR4 outcomes • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, ….” • “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.” 12 Consideration of remaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies. • “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty.” • “Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-2) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.” • “It is very likelythat hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.” 　　・・・・・・・・・・・・・ Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts on natural disasters, in particular,from policy makers Increasing need of further reliable projection

6. Research needs and issues to be addressed • Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks Advancing climate modeling and projection • Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection Quantification and reduction of uncertainty • Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection Application of regional projection to natural disasters

7. Program Theme (A)Advancing climate modeling and projection • Developing more reliable and higher resolution climate models, through the sophisticated incorporation of physical and biogeochemical processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface, covering wider ranges from global to local urban scales. • Further reliable climate change projection (or prediction) for the 21st century, with a specific focus on extreme events such as heat waves, severe storms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, etc. in the near future (about 25 years ahead) • Projection to be regionally detail enough for relevantly applicable to impact assessment and adaptation studies. • Projection of global environment change including carbon cycle feedback

8. Program Theme (B)Quantification and reduction of uncertainty • Inter-comparison of climate models in their • performance in terms of incorporated processes. • Quantification of uncertainty among models through • ensemble methodologies. • Data assimilation to be further improved for validation. • Comprehensive study for the reduction of uncertainty • in projection.

9. Program Theme (C)Impact assessment on natural disasters • Analysis of the frequency and the strength of projected • (or predicted) extreme events (tropical cyclones, heat • waves, severe rainfalls, droughts, etc.) in the 21st • century with special attention to near future (～25 years • ahead) • Impact assessment study on natural disasters due to • extreme events to contribute to natural disaster • reduction policies

10. Program plan • A 5-year initiative (FY 2007-2011)by theMEXT(Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology ) launched in April 2007 • The Program is to follow-up and develop the“Kyo-sei” Project(FY 2002-2006) • TheEarth Simulator(to be updated) be further utilized. • The Program intends tocontribute to the possible AR5.

11. Program structure Advancing Climate Modeling and Projection Comprehensive Impact Assessment Projects by Ministry of Environment (MOE) Coordination Close linkage Impact assessment on natural disasters Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty

12. Long-term global environmental projection with an earth system model - Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) et. al Near-term climate prediction with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM - Center for Climate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo et. al Projection of changes in extremes in the future with very-high resolution atmospheric models - Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) et. al Participating groups and their studies