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MAP D-PHASE

MAP D-PHASE. COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006. Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC. Overview. Context & ‘history’ Organisation Overview over activities Collaboration. MAP History. Preparation Phase. Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP. Analysis Phase. Demonstration Phase. Forecast Demonstration Project.

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MAP D-PHASE

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  1. MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC

  2. Overview • Context & ‘history’ • Organisation • Overview over activities • Collaboration

  3. MAP History Preparation Phase Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP Analysis Phase Demonstration Phase Forecast Demonstration Project

  4. MAP History Preparation Phase Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP Analysis Phase Demonstration Phase MAP D-PHASE

  5. MAP D-PHASE • MAP: first WWRP RDP • D-PHASE: 2nd WWRP FDP • Focus--> heavy precipitation--> hydrology--> high-resolution numerical modelling Demonstration of ability to better understand, model and forecast strong precipitation events and related hydrological processes from end to end… … due to MAP

  6. Impact of Alps on August 2005 floods Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

  7. COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

  8. COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

  9. COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

  10. COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

  11. MAP D-PHASE D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of heavy precipitation Events in the Alpine region

  12. MAP D-PHASE • October 2005: endorsement by WWRP Int. Steering Committee --> Steinacker/Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH),Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK) 1st MD-SC meeting, 13/14 March 2006 D-PHASE ‘office’: --> Marco Arpagaus, project coordinator --> marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch Implementation Plan

  13. MAP D-PHASE working groups • WG-DI: Data interface --> chair: A. Montani, ARPA-SIM • WG-HEU: Hydrology and End users --> co-chairs: R. Ranzi, U Brescia, C. Hegg, WSL • WG-VER: verficiation--> chair: M. Dorninger, U Vienna • WG-DP: Data policy--> chair M. Rotach, MeteoSwiss

  14. End-to-end forecasting system

  15. Atmospheric Models

  16. COSMO-LEPS aLMo2

  17. Hydrological Models

  18. Iller, Lech, Isar Glarus Lago Maggiore Emilia Romagna Liguria

  19. ‘End users’

  20. Implementation Plan • MD-SC approved the basic assumptions … • alldata, alerts, and feedbacks are verified / evaluated • alldata are visualised • all alerts are visualised • general rules for information flow • … and their consequences • common data interface (DI) • common data visualisation platform (DVP) • common warning and feedback platform (WFP) • in general: individual implementation

  21. International Collaboration • common data interface (DI) • common data visualisation platform (DVP)--> joint with COPS--> ‘Demonstration period’: June - November 2007 common warning and feedback platform (WFP) --> in collaboration with Meteorisk ETReC07

  22. 1st MAP D-PHASE meeting November 6- 8 2006 Vienna local Organiser: M. Dorninger / R. Steinacker • Atmospheric modeling • Hydrological modeling • high-resolution probabilistic simulation • nowcasting • Verification approaches • Previous studies from ‘D-PHASE catchments’

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