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Overview

Review of Ocean Modeling at NCEP/EMC Dr. Louis Uccellini Director, NCEP July 15, 2003 “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Overview. NOAA Products Dependent on Ocean Models Current Status of Ocean Models run at NCEP Future Plans and Related Partnerships

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Overview

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Review of Ocean Modeling at NCEP/EMCDr. Louis UccelliniDirector, NCEPJuly 15, 2003“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

  2. Overview • NOAAProducts Dependent on Ocean Models • Current Status of Ocean Models run at NCEP • Future Plans and Related Partnerships • Issues for SAB consideration and review

  3. Examples of Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling Short-term regional ocean/marine forecasts (out to day 5) • Winds • Waves • Currents • Marine hazards Applicable Models • Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) • Wave Watch III • PORTS (NOS) Physical Oceanographic Real-time System (coupled to Eta, GFS, RUC)

  4. Examples of NOAA Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling (Cont.) Weather forecasts out to day 7 • General weather forecasts • Coastal storms • Hurricane track (to day 5) and intensity (to day 3) Applicable Models • GFS & Eta – Passive ocean-atmosphere link (ocean SST forces atmospheric evolution) • GFDL Hurricane model – Active link (forcing goes both ways)

  5. Examples of NOAA Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling (Cont.) Climate – Week 2, to seasonal to interannual • Hazard assessment • Monthly temp-precip anomaly forecasts • Seasonal to interannual forecast • Climate events (El Nino; La Nina) Applicable Models • GFS run out to day 16 (ensemble) • passive ocean-atmosphere link • Coupled global forecast model (EMC/GFDL) • lower resolution (200km,28L); run out to 7 months • first attempt to link oceans (Pacific) to atmospheric prediction

  6. Current Status of Ocean-linked Models run at NCEP • Many models run operationally that link ocean and atmosphere • GFS • Eta • ROFS • Wave Watch III • GFDL Hurricane Model • Global Climate Model • “Linkage” of Ocean and Atmosphere is simple and limited • Regional extent • Generally one-way: SSTs force atmosphere or atmosphere winds force waves but interaction is not generally two-way ( “coupled”)

  7. Future Plans Vision • Implement unified, fully coupled global atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice models • Apply to all operational weather, climate, ocean and sea ice products • Apply within a community model framework for all major components (atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice)

  8. Future Plans/ Related Partnerships • Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) (NCAR, GFDL, NASA GSFC, EMC, MIT) • Ocean model under consideration at NCEP • HYCOM ( NOPP partnership) • Implement MOM3, and move toward MOM4 ( GFDL) • Eventual merging of MOM, HYCOM through HOME (Hybrid Ocean Modeling Environment) • Run ESMF/with unified model as an “Ensemble System” • Use as a basis for all assimilation (including ocean) • Retain options for deterministic applications • Couple NOS operational estuarine models with ROFS and hydrologic/river models. • Couple seasonal-to-interannual SST and river flux models to NOS estuarine ecosystem models.

  9. Issues for SAB Consideration/Review • Role of ESMF for providing the overall framework • Architectural issues and standards • Which ocean model(s) for specific applications • Focus on “coupling” procedures • Assimilation approaches for ocean observations • Role of ensemble model approach vs. deterministic approach for future ocean forecasts • Opportunities for other partnerships and applications (e.g., NOS operational models, ecosystem models)

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