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Building an Information Network for NATO Strategic Direction South

This document discusses the concept of horizon scanning and its application in building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South. It outlines the objectives, factors/drivers of (in)stability, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, main line of effort, and key stakeholders involved in this process.

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Building an Information Network for NATO Strategic Direction South

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  1. SYNDICATE 7 Horizon Scanning: Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South

  2. Initial Brainstorming Questions • Understanding the meaning and scope of “horizon scanning” • What information is needed? • Which actors should be involved? • What are limitations and risks? • How can CIMIC contribute to the network?

  3. Horizon Scanning Objectives • Identify factors / drivers / root causes for (in)stability • Elements of stability versus triggers of instability • Horizon scanning as part of the mission of the Southern Hub (NSD-S Hub)

  4. Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability • Main Categories • PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure) • To Consider • Who is and should be looking at factors? • Who is able to asses a specific situation? • Who is ensuring complete coverage by criteria of stability? • Using ASCOPE (Area, Structure, Culture, Organization, Persons, Events)

  5. Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability • Understanding culture • Ethnic tensions • Key-leaders • State resilience • More Detailed List • Leadership perceptions • Civilian perceptions • Gov’t structures/institutions • Historic trends and understanding • Operating patterns • Education • Employment level • Religious influence • Anthropology – understanding the society

  6. Strengths • CIMIC assets (“boots on the ground” for the Hub) • Mutual trust / confidence • Using current capacities / planning procedures from a PS dimension • Support the decision making process • Existing resilience • Early warning system • Future Mission Network & CivMil Exchange products • Understanding of Comprehensive Approach

  7. Weaknesses • Too many actors leads to duplication of efforts (lack of coordination/info sharing) • Negative perception of NATOby Non-Military Actors and Partner Nations • Political barriers to info-sharing among Allies/with Partners • Governmental/organizational interests • Definition of rules of information sharing • Difficulty of predicting outcomes

  8. Opportunities • Info-sharing platforms, regular meetings/conferences/workshops • Building relationships • with international/regional organizations (AU, EU, GCC, LAS, UN, 5+5 initiative) • think-tanks (including in the region) • civilian universities, defense institutes in the region • others • Exploit existing tools already used by other actors • Expand Comprehensive Approach • Consider regional context • Optimized allocation of resources (by increasing coordination and avoiding duplication) • Support interaction with non-military actors

  9. Threats • Need to know versus need to share • Corruption / criminality • Information sharing perceived as intelligence collection • Criminal networks • Regional impact

  10. Main Line of Effort • SMEs (think tanks, academia) • Strategic Key Leaders (regional, local) • NMAs (IOs, GOs, NGOs) • Allies and Partners Actor Mapping Selection Outreach Engagement Key Stakeholders Key Activities Network Building • Communication platform • Information management system • Mutual trust • Seminars, conferences • Common understanding • Database of actors • Confidence building • MoUs, TAs, contracts Resources Outputs Time Scales • Current activities: Mapping and outreach (cyclical activity) • Future activities: Building communication platform, engagement

  11. Enablers and Blockers • Enablers • Existing networks • Existing information sharing tools • … • Blockers • National caveats for information sharing • Political crisis • Conflicting interests/agendas among stakeholders

  12. “Thank You for Your Attention” “Grazie per l’attenzione”

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