Highlights of Research Work Carried out

1. by K. Krishna Kumar (1999-2003) Highlights of Research Work Carried out

2. Research Areas • Development of Climate Change Scenarios for India. • Impact of climate change on cyclonic storms in Indian seas. • Development of High-resolution climate change scenarios for India using Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model. • GCM Sensitivity Experiments on ENSO-Monsoon Relationship. • Indian Ocean SSTs and monsoon variability. • Diagnostics of AGCM simulations for understanding the variability of Asian Monsoon and its global teleconnections. • Study of vulnerability characteristics of Kachchh District, Gujarat. • Climate Signal in Malaria Incidences in India. • Development of relevant Prediction Schemes of Seasonal Rainfall over the APN/START Project Target Sites in India and Pakistan. • Climate Signal in Indian Agricultural Indices.

3. Participation in National/International Research Projects • Principal Investigator (PI) in APN/START funded project, Applying climate information to enhance the resilience of farming systems exposed to climate risk in south and southeast Asia. • PI in NATCOM project on Climate Change Projection for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts. • Co-PI in UK funded project, Development of Climate Change Scenarios for India, being carried out at IITM, Pune. • Collaborator/Team Member in UK Govt funded project, Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in India being done at IITM, Pune, India. • Collaborator in UK Govt. funded project, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in India being done at National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, India. • Joint-Collaborator in INDO-FRENCH Collaborative Project, Sensitivity of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Climate Change.

4. Other Activities • Guidance to M.Tech. Students • Recognition as Ph.D. Guide • Participation in National Meetings/Workshops/ Seminars/Lectures • Peer Review of Scientific Papers and Research Proposals • Member in Institute Committees • Co-ordination of visits of International visitors/ Members of Parliament

5. IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficien technologies A2: A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1: A world of „dematerialization“ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability 5 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios

6. IS92A Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmopshere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are presented in the following figures for the Indian region. The simulations of eight models used are: 1. Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. 2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. 3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. 4. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. 6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) 7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.

7. Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

8. Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Temperature over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

9. Monsoon Precipitation Change (% of 2041-60 as compared to 1961-90 period) due to GHG Increase

10. Annual Surface Temperature Change (Deg. C in 2061-80 compared to 1961-90 period) due to GHG Increase

11. Monsoon Depression Tracks as simulated in HadRM2 control and GHG Experiments

12. Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60

13. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Joint Indo-UK Collaborative research programme on climate change impacts in India • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region (the output is being currently analysed by IITM) • HadRM3 installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

14. Model Orographiesin GCM and RCM

15. Observed and Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (GCM vs. RCM)

16. Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2

17. Inter El Nino Differences in SST Patterns and Their Impact on Indian Monsoon Rainfall

25. Same as ‘A’ but for 1981-97 Correlation: Monsoon Rain VPOT200 58-80 El Nino Composite of VPOT200 81-97 El Nino Composite of VPOT200 58-80

26. Diff of Climatologies of 1981-97 and 1951-80 Diff of El Nino Compos of 1981-97 and 1951-80 Strong-Weak Monsoon (Warm Events) Strong-Weak Monsoon Temp Difference

27. JJA-1 SON-1 MAM DJF-1

28. Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

29. Kharif Rice Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

30. Kharif Groundnut Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall

32. Same as ‘A’ but for 1981-97 Correlation: Monsoon Rain VPOT200 58-80 El Nino Composite of VPOT200 81-97 El Nino Composite of VPOT200 58-80

33. Diff of Climatologies of 1981-97 and 1951-80 Diff of El Nino Compos of 1981-97 and 1951-80 Strong-Weak Monsoon (Warm Events) Strong-Weak Monsoon Temp Difference

37. Impact of Antecedent Pre-Monsoon Rains on the Incidence of Malaria in India