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Met brief for Mon Mar 03 02 Mar 2014 Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister

Met brief for Mon Mar 03 02 Mar 2014 Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister. CURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun): TS Faxai : near 9N 150E; slightly better organized; slow moving to N Airfield – past 12 hours : NE winds to 21; G29; min CIG 014, short periods with no CIG

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Met brief for Mon Mar 03 02 Mar 2014 Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister

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  1. Met brief for Mon Mar 0302 Mar 2014Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister CURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun): TS Faxai: near 9N 150E; slightly better organized; slow moving to N Airfield – past 12 hours: NE winds to 21; G29; min CIG 014, short periods with no CIG FLIGHT OUTLOOK: Not good: issues of both ceiling and crosswind Only slightly better outlook if TS stays in place Worth a look again later today (1 PM) to see how storm is both deepening and moving Confidence in models is still low, though improving

  2. JTWC Storm Track 7 AM Sunday Closest approach 257 nm at 4 PM Monday

  3. Current IR: 2232 UT 01 Mar TS Faixa slowly moving slightly W of N

  4. GFS surface fcsts takeoff / landing N.B.: not correct flight track Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PM UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands

  5. NAVGEM surface fcsts takeoff / landing N.B.: not correct flight track Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PM UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands particularly at beginning of flight

  6. Sounding: observed, forecast Sat PM obs 7 PM Mon WRF 15-km model Some uncertainty in convective instabilityand depth of wet layer in fcst sounding

  7. Icing probably not a factor GFS 500 RH at 10 PM tomorrow (worst case scenario)

  8. Last 3 JTWC forecasts agree, but because of weak steering winds as of 0Z, mar 2, confidence in track is still low.

  9. GFS forecast Guam winds (assumes TC moves with GFS; GFS is a bit slower and further west (closer to Guam) than model consensus, but is not too far off. Time WdirWspdXwind Flight 14030118 46.2 23.0 7.8 TO today 14030200 47.9 23.4 7.3 14030206 43.1 22.4 8.7 14030212 37.2 23.6 11.4 Landing today 14030218 24.9 26.6 15.8 TO tomorrow 14030300 21.7 24.6 17.18 14030306 355.1 28.17 26.6 14030312 344.1 25.63 25.4 Landing tomorrow 14030318 320.1 27.6 26.6 TO Tuesday (TAILWIND) 14030400 319.7 23.3 22.4 (TAILWIND) 14030406 320.4 20.1 19.4 (TAILWIND) 14030412 330.0 16.9 16.8 Landing Tuesday (TAILWIND) 14030418 333.0 15.8 15.8 TO Wednesday (TAILWIND Comp .79 knots) 14030400 353.5 12.9 12.3 Wind conditions improve from this point. Thinking is that Tailwind is nonzero when wdir is less than 336.

  10. Longer Range Forecast, ceilings This depends on whether storm moves as progged by JTWC, confidence still low. Tuesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 40% Tuesday flight – Landing, similar to TO. Wednesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30% Wednesday flight – landing, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%. Thursday and on. Still moisture at the low levels, so cannot discount the possibility of low ceilings. Ceilings below 1000 are unlikely after Monday.

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