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The Future of Mobility

The Future of Mobility . Meeting at JRC Ispra. Dr. Irene Feige. The Institute for Mobility Research ( ifmo ). Founded in 1998. Part of BMW Group. Independent Board of Trustees ensures independence and neutrality. Objective (extract from the institute‘s guidelines from 1998):

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The Future of Mobility

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  1. The Future of Mobility Meeting at JRC Ispra Dr. Irene Feige

  2. The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo) Founded in 1998. Part of BMW Group. Independent Board of Trustees ensures independence and neutrality. Objective (extract from the institute‘s guidelines from 1998): „ … is to analyze the society‘s needs in terms of mobility taking into account ecologic, social, economic and technological aspects in order to be able to promote a responsible design and organization of mobility.“

  3. The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo) • Objective: Identificationoflong-termchallengesfor passenger transport Bytaking a holisticperspective: • all modesoftransportation • frameworkconditionsfortransport (infrastructure, transportpolicy) • context (economy, demography, ecology, technology) “We overestimate the pace of progress near term and underestimate progress long term” Bill Gates

  4. ifmo Board

  5. ifmo Scenario Studies: The Future of Mobility Objective: Determination of a consistent and comprehensive picture of the future of mobility for the next 20 year Countries: • Germany (latest study published in 2010) • USA (study in progress) • BRIC countries (studies planned for the future) Object of investigation: • All influencing fields determining the mobility of the future • All modes of transport with a focus on motorized individual mobility • Passenger and freight transport Method: Scenario techniques with strong involvement of experts Data analysis: Desk research, workshops and scenario tool support

  6. ifmo Project: Changes in Young People‘s Mobility Patterns Research Questions: • Is there long term empirical evidence for a change in young people’s mobility behavior eg. reduction in car usage and drivers’ licenses? • What are the reasons behind these developments?

  7. ifmo Projects: Evolutionary Paths of Mobility Developments & Global Mobility Monitor Network • Evolutionary Paths of Mobility • Identify mobility patterns in industrialized countries • Application of patterns to emerging markets • Future projections for mobility developments in emerging markets • Global Mobility Monitor Network • Establish a network of experts in order to answer pressing questions on mobility in various countries. • Collect and analysis comparable transportation data for those countries over the past 10 years • Project future developments

  8. ifmo Project: Mobility Cultures in Megacities Objective: Understanding mobility patterns and cultures in Megacities, identifying challenges and developing strategies for the future of urban mobility. “Mobility Cultures in Megacities”… …stands for dealing with complex mobility issues in large scale urban agglomerations. Integral parts of the program: • Preliminary study for clustering cities worldwide. • Post-Doctoral Fellowship program for questions on mobilitybehavior and dynamics of change. • Summary of overall project outcomes published by Springer (2013).

  9. The year 2050:70% ofworldpopulation will beliving in urban areas Quelle: Source: LSE Cities based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision

  10. Largestshareof urban population in cities <500.000 Population by city size class (different shades for 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015) Source: LSE Cities based on the UN World Urbanisation Prospects, the 2009 revision

  11. Relation between Air Quality, CO² EmissionsandWealth Source: McGranahan et al 2001 Adverserelationbetween CO² emissionsandwealth Ambientairqualitydecreasesupto a certainwealthandthenincreasessteadily

  12. Cities and Mobility: Trends andTrajectories • Periodofmassmotorization Beijing Non-motorized Atlanta Transit TrafficSaturated Paratransit Hybrid Auto

  13. Potential foreco-industries in themobilitysector Development stageofcitiesdeterminesareasof potential foreco-industries Traffic saturatedcities: improvements in airqualityanduseofcapacityofinfrastructurearecentral (highdemandfor clean vehicletechnologies, ITS technologies, improvements in publictransport) Hybrid and Auto cities: airqualitylevelsaretypicallymuchbetterthan in trafficsaturatedcities, but CO² emissionsanduseofenergyneedtobebrought down (highdemandforefficientvehicles, alternative engines, ITS technologies, improvements in publictransport in autocities, multimodal solutions)

  14. Thankyouforyourattention! Institute forMobility Research Contactdetails Institute for Mobility Research Dr. Irene Feige +49 89 382 34967 Irene.feige@ifmo.de

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