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Europe @ a crossroad

EU’s geopolitics & prospective : fundamental questions in the dawn of the 21 st century. Europe @ a crossroad. Sónia Ribeiro Political Studies Institute | Portuguese Catholic Univ . September 2016. Rape of Europa Rubens (1628 – 1629). Summary. 0. Introduction & Methodological Notes

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Europe @ a crossroad

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  1. EU’s geopolitics & prospective: fundamental questions in the dawn of the 21st century Europe @ a crossroad Sónia Ribeiro Political Studies Institute | Portuguese Catholic Univ. September 2016 Rape of Europa Rubens (1628 – 1629)

  2. Summary 0. Introduction & Methodological Notes • Geopolitics today…after a long way • The origins of Geopolitical Studies • Geopolitical thought main perspectives • Geopolitics in the transition from the 20th/21st century: main drivers • Geopolitical dimensions of the European Union • EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • External elements of EU’s geopolitics II. EU’s geopolitics. A foresight exercise @ the dawn of the 21st century • Geopolitics in the transition from the 20th/21st century • EU’s geopolitics today…in a nutshell • A prospective exercise Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  3. Introduction • The relevance: • an essencial strategy theoretical fundamental binomial • a tool to read the present and think of the future • The objective: • To provide a global perspective on EU’s main geopolitical realities and challenges in EU’s troubled present, and a clearer view on main aspects to consider when analyzing it’s future possibilities Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  4. Methodological Notes • The method • A necessarily multidimensional and systemic approach • From a simplified perception of the nature of the future to the perception of "a changing, uncertain and complex world" with the assumption other nature(s) of the future(s) • The future vs. possible futures: from projection to prospective The new normal: uncertainty and complexity Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  5. Introduction • A priori notes to retain ... • A personal reading of reality • A starting point to observe a reality in experience • The search for the ultimate reasons, beyond the surface of things • Awareness of the EU temporal matrix • The inherent complexity of reality ... and the limitations of the human brain Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  6. Geopolitics – concept’s definition • “national security policy of the countries in terms of their geographical factors” (SPYKMAN) • “policy made as a result of geographical conditions” (E. BACKHEUSER) • “the impact of geographical factors such as the spatial disposition of the continents and oceans and the distribution of natural and human resources upon international politics at a time when the whole world was finally available for state territorial and economic expansion” (atrib. to H. MACKINDER) • “the study of geographical distribution of power among states across the world, especially the rivalry between the major powers” (Peter J. TAYLOR) Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  7. Geopolitics – concept’s definition • “a study of the historical background of human societies and countries due to the geographical environment, which somehow allows to formulate credible assumptions as to future conduct, given the stability of the geographical factor” (Virgílio de CARVALHO) • “la géopolitique combine une schématisation géographique des relations diplomatico-stratégiques avec une analyse géographico-économique des ressources, avec une interprétation des attitudes diplomatiques en fonction du mode de vie du milieu (sédentaires, nomades, terriens, marins)” (Raymond ARON) Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  8. Methodological Notes • Geopolitics: • A mix between analytical methodology and political-strategic thinking on the basis of a definition of space occupation • An inherently diffuse nature as a result of 4 dominant characteristics: synthetic, dynamic, global and self-centered • Elementary concepts to consider: • space; time; things; men • power & wealth • 10+1 vectors in conjunction → Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  9. Methodological Notes • 10+1 vectors in conjunction demographic social cultural Set of moral values and attitudes towards man and the world economic ideological GEOPOLITICS geographical political technological military strategic Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  10. i. Geopolitics today…after a longway Origins & contemporary perspectives Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  11. The origins of Geopolitical Studies • The role of GEOGRAPHY • a conscious or unconscious permanent concern, systematized by the Greeks • the basic generator of power • geo> land; graphein> describe • Hecataeus; Herodotus; Thucydides; Aristotle; Eratosthenes Hecataeus‘ worldEratosthenes’ world Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  12. The origins of Geopolitical Studies • Rome and the first typically geopolitical views • Polybius – the connection between geography and politics; • Strabo – the geographical position as a political power factor; • Pliny the Elder – Roman geopolitical view of the world (communication as the Empire power projection means) • The Middle Ages – a return to geography‘s merely descriptive functions • The Discoveries and the resurgence of connection environment / politics / wealth / power • The schools of geography in the transition of the 19th / 20thcentury and the study of geopolitics  Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  13. Geopolitical thought main perspectives RESTRICTED GEOPOLÍTICAL GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES THOUGHT PERSPECTIVES • Focus on the States as the only actors in the ongoing struggle for international power • Structural Power Factors not considered fundamental, although size and geographical position are important factors • Two main branchs: determinists/possibilists • World political vision supported on the structural factors of power, and also trying to incorporate logistics, transport, communications… • …even if geography and history are still viewed as indispensable factors in determining political objectives • Draw of geopolitical models of global power dynamic with map projection in the World Map • Two main features: large physically indivisible spaces and the role of human settlement, natural resources and mobility Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  14. Geopolitical thought main perspectives RESTRICTED GEOPOLÍTICAL GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES THOUGHT PERSPECTIVES • Focus on the States as the only actors in the ongoing struggle for international power • Structural Power Factors not considered fundamental, although size and geographical position are important factors • Two main branchs: determinists/possibilists • World political vision supported on the structural factors of power, and also trying to incorporate logistics, transport, communications… • …even if geography and history are still viewed as indispensable factors in determining political objectives • Draw of geopolitical models of global power dynamic with map projection in the World Map • Two main features: large physically indivisible spaces and the role of human settlement, natural resources and mobility Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  15. Restricted perspectives • Friederick RATZEL (1844-1904): • The State is a human community on a piece of land, whose basic element is the territory, defined by the space and position, which determine the state’s power. • The sense of space [Raumsinn] • The concept of vital space [Lebensraum] and the ongoing struggle for seeking more space - the natural selection law applied to States • Competition is the rule in intra-state relations Power = space [Raum] + position [Lage] Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  16. Restricted perspectives • Rudolf KJELLEN (1846-1922): • The "geopolitics" neologism, defined as "science of the state, as a geographical body, as displayed in space“ • the power attributes: • geography - reviewed by geopolitics, establishes the relationship between the state and its territory • the economy - analyzed by geo-economics, establishes the relationship between the state and the economy • sociology - analyzed by socio-political, establishes the relationship between the State and the national society • the policy - setting the way, the power and the life of the State • TheState as a livingorganism • postulates of the State: • When survival is at stake, it favors manifestations of force to the affirmation of moral principles • Territorial expansion should be the main focus of any people • A state will only be a great power if it holds a large space, freedom of movement, internal cohesion and strength to ensure that cohesion Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  17. Restricted perspectives • Paul VIDAL DE LA BLACHE (1845-1918) • The concept of possibilism: • In policy making, the state is not (pre)determined, even by spate/territory: it is confronted with a range of possibilities against which it must react • The state is thus defined in the decision of using, and how to use its possibilities • The state: • A grouping of geographic regionalisms juxtaposed by common political interest • Where communications, circulation and trade are of great importance • There is a cultural divide that overrides the natural division of the world, forming "areas of civilization" Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  18. Restricted perspectives • Jaume VICENS VIVES (1910-1960) • The "cultural society" as "the main History element," to the detriment of the State • 3 main principles / assumptions of his thought: • The geographical environment and race are not determinants • Society does not look like a biological organism • Societies, not the states are the main actors in History Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  19. Geopolitical thought main perspectives RESTRICTED GEOPOLÍTICAL GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES THOUGHT PERSPECTIVES • Focus on the States as the only actors in the ongoing struggle for international power • Structural Power Factors not considered fundamental, although size and geographical position are important factors • Two main branchs: determinists/possibilists • World political vision supported on the structural factors of power, and also trying to incorporate logistics, transport, communications… • …even if geography and history are still viewed as indispensable factors in determining political objectives • Draw of geopolitical models of global power dynamic with map projection in the World Map • Two main features: large physically indivisible spaces and the role of human settlement, natural resources and mobility Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  20. Global perspectives • Karl HAUSHOFER (1869-1946) and the Munich school • Main question: how to recover Germany’s international positioning in post-WWI context? • 4 conceptual basis: vital space; borders; economic independence or self-sufficiency; Pan-Regions • A close link with the nazi regime.. • the conclusion of distortion and exploitation by Nazi ideology of his theses Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  21. Global perspectives • Halford John MACKINDER (1861-1947) • The world divided in two main áreas in permanente tension: • The vast landmass of Eurasia (continental power) • A string of maritime powers around the greatlandmass • With the main concern on the containment of continental power, he developed • a historical analysis with geopolitical interaction, focused on Russia and the sustained pressure that the East had on Europe • three global theories which materialize the relationship between space and power in their power dynamics models • There is some determinism in his geopolitical views, while also recognizing the importance of the creative capacity of man in political decision-making Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  22. Global perspectives Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  23. Midland Ocean GrandOcean Global perspectives • 1st Mackinder’s theory (1904): the Geographical Pivot of History • A compact power center • the control over the Pivot area offers the possibility of expanding to the ‘inner marginal crescent’, setting a world empire • 2nd theory (1919): Heartland and world island • Controling the Heartland through the Eastern European control: • “Whoever rules East Europe, will rule Heartland, whoever rules the Heartland, will rule the World Island.”, whoever rules the World Island, will rule the world.”. • 3rd theory (1943): the Midland Ocean • The American continent has the potential to balance the Heartland when allied to Western Europe Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  24. Global perspectives • Nicholas SPYKMAN (1893-1943) • His work is based on assumptions similar to Mackinder: the unity of world politics, and the unity of the world sea. He extends this to include the unity of the air • SpykmandiffersfromMackinder: • the Eurasian struggle was not the sea powers containing the heartland, but the prevention of any power fromruling the rimland: • Who controls the rimland rules Eurasia;Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world. • Therefore, British, Russian, and U.S. power would play the keyroles in controlling the European littoral, and thereby, the essential power relations of the world. Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  25. The contemporaneity • @ the end of WWII – considered to be a dangerous science, it was banned of all school and university curricula • The 70’s: the re-emergence of geopolitics • 1989: return to the IRS as a world power game • The transition of the 20th to the 21st century • IRS permanently changing and rebuilding • The reemergence of permanent regional tensions suppressed during Cold War, also in Europe • The neo-nationalisms • The fundamentalisms of religious nature • The tentative reinvention of the state in Europe – from nation-state to the post-modern state…and the revenge of the state Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  26. The contemporaneity • Saul Bernard COHEN (1924 -…) • The dramatic changes of the end of the Cold War - the release of powerful ideological and economic forces • A complex global geopolitics • A new list of geo-political units: nation, sub-national, supra-national and quasi states • The influence of globalization + the loss of importance of hierarchy • The absence of dominant power - the twenty-first century will be a "global century," not "American" or "Pacific". • Despite of technology, geography still counts • The major role of regional and sub-regional alliances: “no single power can hope to apply a grand strategic master plan to the world system, despite the global reach of communications, economics and advanced weaponry Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  27. The contemporaneity • Parag KHANNA (1977-…) • A tripartite world • A race for supremacy of 3 major powers • The relevance of the 'second world' • crucial regions in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, Middle East and East Asia - rich in energy resources - which play truly global leadership • globalization as the main geopolitical battlefield • a multi-polar and multi-civilizational world, in which each empire, city-state, multi-national corporation or mercenary army may try to assert and expand its sphere of influence Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  28. Geopolitics in the transition from the 20th/21st century • The measurement of time and the reality of historical time • The short 20th century; the early beginning of the 21st century • The basic question of speed, change and turmoil • the impact of information and communication technologies in economic activity • the limitation of the facts appropriation capacity by individuals and societies • the additional pressure on politicians and managers and the increase of tension • The stability of the assimilated vs. a reality in permanent evolution - a dual mechanism: • the growing role of small, active and flexible economic, social and political actors, in the context of a globalized concept of the world economy, acting based on information and communication on a global scale • the redefinition of power relations between states and the rebuilding of the IRS and WES structure Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  29. Geopolitics in the transition from the 20th/21st century • A new world.. • new production centers • new power centers • new players • new media demonstration / affirmation of power • new communication routes • new strategic priorities • A worldwide political, economic and cultural change Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  30. Geopolitics in the transition from the 20th/21st century Complexity, dynamism and hierarchy of the new IRS • The new global geopolitical configurations • The failure of the attempt to assert the unipolar model; • The challenged hegemony the Triad; and the emerging of proto-poles – a return to a multipolar world • A powerful structural driver: competitive globalization Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  31. Competitive globalization and the structure of world power • Competitive globalization: • The absence of a stable center and the coexistence of multiple centers networked • Innovations of competitive globalization • in the origin • in the range • in the direction • 2 different dimensions of analysis: • globalization • effects of globalization • 3 models of power in simultaneous statement: • persistence, with new momentum, of pre-modern chaos order; • the reaffirmation of modernity and • the possibility of post-modern development system Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  32. Globalization and the new EU challenges • Pressures ... • ... in economy • the foam of the days ... • and what really matters: under and beyond the crisis - the challenging structural line: • Europe and the 3 Globalizations : pioneer / leader / marginal • new economic models - spaces vs flows • pressures of globalization and the European social model: competitiveness vs. solidarity; economy and society • information / training - R&D and structural developments • the financial and economic crisis in progress and the relative backwardness of European economies face the new poles of EWS • the energy issue Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  33. Globalization and the new EU challenges • Pressures ... • in society • The double aging – at the base and at the top • Mosaic Society - multiculturalism and cultural tensions • Unions and employers' associations • New threats • Internal security and factors of (un)stabilization • Managing change Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  34. Globalization and the new EU challenges • Pressures … • …in the political-institutional framework of the EU • The consequences of German (re)unification • The enlargement process: EU 15 → EU 25/27/28 • Internal heterogeneities of the Union • Managing the Brexit, euro crisis and migration pressures • The reappearance of European geopolitical tensions ... that pass into the interior of the European institutions • enlargement, the economic and financial crisis, migration tension ... and the escalation of center / periphery tension • the reappearance on the surface of old tensions and dichotomies, not visible, but permanent • integration / disintegration Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  35. Globalization and the new EU challenges • Competitiveness as a guiding factor of the global configuration • The debate on the role of ideology in the context of competitive globalization: • "The end of history" vs. "The return of history“ • Crisis of European societies/EU crisis: • Over-focus on the economy as a justification for integration • The removal of the societies of the key issues • Social instability and weak economic growth in European societies • Fueling [violent and resentful] regression and not[innovative and competitive] modernization Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  36. Globalization and the new EU challenges • EU positioning towards the possibility of a new multipolar world system configuration • Inertia vs. responsiveness • ‘History knows no deadlocks’ • the EU in face of new global political and economic realities: what positioning? what answers? ?? what future? Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  37. Globalization and the new EU challenges • → in face of … • the global framework installed, • the disbelief of citizens, • the shortcomings of the political classes, • the undervaluation of Europe in the evolution of the medium / long-term economy and politics in the global context, • the turmoil left by Brexit referendum, the euro and migration crisis, • the perplexities and hesitations of those responsible … Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  38. Globalization and the new EU challenges • …it matters to: • build / find and implement a "sense of purpose" for the EU to mobilize citizens; • establish a central axis of action, policies to build the future and not just to preserve the past • walk (definitely) for the formation of European elites to produce and disseminate precisely the frameworks that open the way to the reinvention of Europe • redo the meeting of Europe with its citizens, promoting their effective participation and involvement in the European project Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  39. Globalization and the new EU challenges • the essential: • understand what it is and what is the relevance of European integration, for which it is necessary to understand and interpret what happened • appropriate the two basic components that shape the substantive line of continuity of European integration: • its historical and structural importance and • the requirement of citizenship commitment to the future • act in EU policy, with conscious acts of responsibility - more than "re-launch" the European construction, reinvent it. Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  40. II. geopolitical dimensions of the European Union Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  41. Methodological Note • What is Europe? • "Europe is a geographical concept only secondarily [...] [it is] a cultural and historical concept" • Ratzinger, J., Europe. Its foundations today and tomorrow, Paulus, 2005 • "The idea of Europe [...] always moving, building step by step our common culture." • BARROSO, J. M., Preface. In STEINER, G., The idea of Europe, Gradiva, 2007 Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  42. Methodological Note • What is the EU? • A unique partnership of 28 states, in which member states have pooled sovereingty in certain policy areas and harmonised laws on a wide range of economic, social and political issues. • The latest stage of european integration process, begun in post-WWII to promote peace, security and economic development, which encompasses: • Customs union • Single market (4 liberties) • Common trade and common agricultural policies • Common currency to 19 states • Free movement area (Schengen) in 22 countries • Is moving towards developing a common foreign and security and common internal security policies Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  43. Methodological Note Europe The European Union An idea A process Ambiguities Internal tensions • Europe vs. European Union • A geographical concept • A civilizational concept • A cultural concept Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  44. Methodological Note Internal dimension External dimension key issues neighborhoods EU international positioning in the beginning of the21st century IRS. • EU’s geopolitical dimensions • the array of historical formation • historical heritage and the European Idea • the geographic factor: delimiting Europe • internal divisions e tensions Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  45. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • The matrix of historical formation • The Greco-Roman heritage • The dawn of the critical reason • The formalized and streamlined organization of political life of the city-state • Philosophy, science, arts and humanities • Rule of law and military order • The Judeo-Christian tradition • The historical break of monotheism spreading out of the restricted cultural framework of Judaism • The concept of "People's choice" • The dynamics of Mission and Evangelization • The conversion of the Roman Empire and the Barbarians • Consolidation, affirmation and expansion of the Christian kingdomsof Europe Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  46. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • The German contribution • Biologic renovation of the European population • The notion of tribe, primal concept of the Nation • The French Revolution and the basis of modern nationality • Equality of citizens before the law • Freedom of thought and faith • Citizenship • Separation of powers • Industrial Revolution • Industrializationandurbanization • The emergence of modern capitalist economy ant of the middleclass • Social revolution • Cultural revolution Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  47. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • The historical heritage and ‘European Idea’ • The bottom line: war and peace in Europe • The medieval unity myth and the secular reality of war for supremacy in Europe • The 'European idea' - an instrument for peace that runs through European history: • Dubois (14th cent.) - the institutionalization of a meeting of European kingdoms in the form of council of princes and prelates, without authority of the pope or the emperor - the first draft of a European entity outside the frames of Respublica Christiana, without defending any imperium reconstruction model; • Abbot Saint Pierre (17th/18th cent.) - The creation of a federation, with a Senate (with similar functions to a court), a permanent secretariat and a federal army; • Emmanuel Kant (18th cent.) - the formation of a European organization of states to adopt the principle of separation of powers, like a federation; • Saint Simon (18th/19th cent) – ‘On the organization of a European society’ Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  48. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • 19th century - Charles Lemonnier (founder of the journal Les États Unis d'Europe, 1867), Auguste Comte, Victor Hugo, Proudhon, Nietzsche, Mazzini ... – all advocate a Europe of federal characteristics, e.g. an integration of European states, where, still, each would keep its identity. • The 20th century - the opportunity of achievement • The post-WWI: the theoretical and academic proposals: associations and publications in defense of a federal Europe • Pan-Europe Manifesto (1923) Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi (1894-1972) • ... and political action • 'Briand Memorandum’ (1930): the French proposal in the League of Nations of a federation called the ‘European Union’ Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  49. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • The geographical issue: • The eastern and southern borders • The Mediterranean • The center and the peripheries – enlargements… • A new fact: a shrinking ‘Europe’? Sónia Ribeiro, September 2016

  50. EU’s geopolitics internal dimension • Permanent tensions • The pressure (s) of the framework(s) • the great unifying forces • the root causes • The internal pressures • Ideas: Federalist / unionists; constructionist / functionalist • The model: an initial course vs erratic process model • The internal divisions  Sónia Ribeiro. Portugal e a UE. Lic. CPRI - 2º semestre 2016

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