The Childhood Origins of Adult Socioeconomic Disadvantage: Do Cohort and Gender Matter?

1. The Childhood Origins of Adult Socioeconomic Disadvantage: Do Cohort and Gender Matter? John Hobcraft and Wendy Sigle-Rushton GeNet Conference 14 December 2006 Queens’ College, Cambridge

2. Childhood Markers of Adult Disadvantage Childhood Indicators: Poverty Housing Social Class Family Type Parental Interest in School Child Behaviour Academic Test Scores School Absences Contact with Police Adult Social Disadvantage: Social Housing Benefits Household Income Social Class Education Unemployment Age at First Birth Physical and Emotional Health

3. Research Questions • Are childhood and family antecedents the same? • For both the 1958 and 1970 cohort? • For both genders? • Do gender differentials change over time?

4. Data • Data: two prospective studies • National Child Development Study (NCDS) • British Cohort Study (BCS)

5. Data • Data: two prospective studies • National Child Development Study (NCDS) • British Cohort Study (BCS)

6. Data • Data: Two British Cohort Studies • National Child Development Study (NCDS) • British Cohort Study (BCS)

7. Inputs and Outcomes Childhood Indicators Poverty (waves 2 & 3 only) Housing Social Class Family Structure Parental Interest in School (Wave 2 only) Temperament (Aggression, Anxiety, Restlessness) Academic Test Scores Adult Disadvantage In Social Housing On Benefits Low Household Income Low Social Class

8. Measurement and Method • Majority of childhood indicators are summarised across multiple childhood waves • Hierarchical coding of dummies within groups • Step-wise Logistic Regression • repeat backward and forward fitting • strict significance threshold of p<0.001

9. Measurement and Method • Common or pervasive antecedents • Same response, but different childhood experiences? • Evidence of cohort or gender (or both) differentials • ‘Black-box’ main effects of cohort or gender • Differential responses to same antecedent • Additional antecedents

10. Results Summary • Main effects • Retained for all outcomes (9 ‘pervasive’ measures) • Academic test scores • Parental housing tenure • Parental interest in education • Temperament: aggression, restlessness • Poverty • Significant links to • Father’s social class • ‘in care’ and ‘born out-of-wedlock’ • Few links to social class of origin or other family structure • No link to anxiety

11. Results Summary • Very few interactions retained • For gender • Social housing: social class of origin • Benefits: constant, any parental disruption • Low household income: missing parental interest in education • Low social class: social class of origin • For cohort • Social housing: parental housing tenure • Benefits: parental housing tenure, parental interest in education • Low household income: Social class of father (x2), academic test scores • Low social class: constant, social class of origin • For gender and cohort • Low social class: parental housing tenure, social class of origin

12. Results Summary

13. Conclusions • Childhood/family antecedents are linked to subsequent outcomes • Similarity and consistency in relationships • Gender and cohort differences often mediated by only a few variables • Over-specification? • Misleading results?