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Industry Review - Future

Industry Review - Future. Stuart Sutton. Born & raised in Hawaii, Ontario 1981 – Honors Computer Science 1991 – MBA – Deans List 1993 – Commissioner of Oaths 1995 – Started Career in Transportation 2001 – Started GPSNet Technologies 2009 – 30 years marriage

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Industry Review - Future

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  1. Industry Review - Future

  2. Stuart Sutton • Born & raised in Hawaii, Ontario • 1981 – Honors Computer Science • 1991 – MBA – Deans List • 1993 – Commissioner of Oaths • 1995 – Started Career in Transportation • 2001 – Started GPSNet Technologies • 2009 – 30 years marriage • 3rd year Presenting at the Expo

  3. Why did I get into trucking? • "Oh Sh*t" moment: The point in time when you realize that what you originally thought was a good idea, was in actuality really stupid.

  4. Expedite Index • Subset of Alliance Pro companies • Expedite only • Business volume only – revenue and miles would show similar trends. • Normalize the data based on 3 months in 2007

  5. American Axle Strike Start of Recession?

  6. Truck Search / Load Counts • All Alliance companies • Expedite and Truckload • Number of companies increases over time • Past year has been very stagnant (Adds are similar to Retired)

  7. Looking at 2.5 years • Automotive has been significantly reduced • Looking at June to July volumes … drop is not as significant in 2009.

  8. Volume vs. Revenues • Expedite Index is “volume”, Dow is monetary. • So what has happened in terms of revenue? • Average length of haul has been fairly constant • Biggest issue is revenue per mile

  9. Katrina Ouch!

  10. Katrina Ouch!

  11. 2008 fuel run up Katrina

  12. Recession started in 2007 • Over Capacity (consider auto industry) • For every 100 Americans – 103 vehicles • Produce/Import 20 million vehicles per year but scrap rate is 11 million vehicles per year • Fuel spike – raises transportation costs • Housing sub prime fiasco • Loss of Consumer wealth and spending power

  13. Business Options in a down economy • Increase Demand • Other market opportunities (use the resources of the Alliance) • Dive deeper into your existing customer • Reduce Capacity • Exit – not a good time to sell (more buyers than sellers??) • Hunker Down – analyze everything! • Automate whenever possible • Outrun the bear

  14. Business Options in a down economy • Merger / Acquisition • Economies of scale / scope • Slow to implement • Social compatibility • Form an Alliance • Maintain autonomy, flexibility, control, goodwill • Has the benefits of “all of the above” • Can be done quickly!

  15. What is the new economy? • Remember – things looked bleak in 1982 • Good news – we will bounce back. • Bad news – it will never be the same. • Peak oil? In our lifetime? • Auto – sunset industry??? • Construction industry – Infrastructure projects • Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleumextraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. Most recent estimate of peak oil is 2020.

  16. What is the new economy? • Climate change – could be deadly. • Elite energy – Coal / Oil / Gas / Uranium • Renewable Energy – next industrial revolution? • Network Energy – power to the people and power by the people. • Align your business with the next growth market.

  17. Planning for the next 3-6 months • Re-tool your team. Quality people are on the street with diverse skills. • Take advantage of government plans. • Train and re-train • Control your risk to Automotive? • Survey your top accounts (80/20 rule). • What is your business stimulus package? • Automate Your Business

  18. Planning for the next 3-6 quarters • Strategy to diversify your market (key people) • Strategy to leverage other resources in the Alliance. • Automotive strategy? • Global Infrastructure strategy?

  19. Summary • Recession began in 2007 • 2009 will be a “hold on” year • 2nd half of 2009 will still be challenging • Build strong alliance relationships and leverage those relationships in your business • 2010 will see inflation and moderate growth

  20. Industry Review - Future

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