Kristof Jacobs 8/2/2014

1. Democracy in times of crisis: people versus politicsPrepared for the conference ‘A Struggle for Peace’ • Kristof Jacobs • 8/2/2014

2. Outline • Introduction • ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ • What’s going on • The crisis and democracy • The crisis and elections • The crisis and referendums • The crisis and democratic innovations • Conclusion: legitimacy in times of crisis

3. Introduction • Political scientists are like goldfish

4. ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ An ‘[e]conomic crisis represents one of the most common threats to democratic stability’ (Diamond and Linz, 1989) • Economic development = good for democracy • Economic growth = shielded from democratic recessions/breakdowns • Great Depression… • So In 2008 I got a bit worried… • What if this is true?

5. ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ ‘Democracy under duress’ + many democracies remain ‘highly vulnerable to precarious economies’ (Puddington, 2011,2012) Crisis is an ‘opportunity’ but really ‘social costs of the economic downturn are a challenge to political stability’ (Tommasoli, 2009) The regress of democracies ‘cannot be dismissed lightly’ (Wnuk-Lipinski, 2012)

6. ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ This time is different? • Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009: nah But it actually may well be different: • Unemployment less impact • Economic policy is not ‘ beggar thy neighbour’ (international response) • Austerity is bad, but only in second phase emphasis on austerity

7. ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ Cuasal processes: 1. Weimar Logic • Negative effects of economic recession (unemployment, inequality,…) • Support for government plummets • Demand for ‘strong’ leadership (often under the guise of ‘technocracy’) • Strengthens authoritarian parties and politicians (Hungary, Greece) 2. Progressive logic • Negative effects of economic recession (unemployment, inequality,…) • = loss in output legitimacy • However, in democracies legitimacy is in itself a crucial political resource • Flaws need to be fixed • Strengthens reformist politicians (e.g. Input legitimacy)

8. What’s going on: The crisis and democracy

9. What’s going on: The crisis and democracy • Only four countries experienced full-scale democratic breakdown • Poor countries only experienced breakdowns/erosions (Weimar logic) • Richer countries experienced erosions but also improvements! (Progressive logic) • On top of that richer countries saw a lot of largely symbolical reforms reducing the size of the parliament

10. What’s going on: The crisis and democracy • Only four countries experienced full-scale democratic breakdown • Poor countries only experienced breakdowns/erosions (Weimar logic) • Richer countries experienced erosions but also improvements! (Progressive logic) • On top of that richer countries saw a lot of largely symbolical reforms reducing the size of the parliament

11. What’s going on: The crisis and elections Now let’s move to richer, established democracies: • Expectation 1: crisis is bad for governments • Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties

12. What’s going on: The crisis and elections Now let’s move to richer, established democracies: • Expectation 1: crisis is bad for governments The available evidence so far indeed suggests that governments are increasingly short-lived

13. What’s going on: The crisis and elections • Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties

14. What’s going on: The crisis and elections • Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties • Good for ‘outsider’ parties – but in some electoral systems no outsiders possible! • If no outsiders available: turnout drops significantly • Those who do not vote lose representation and are ignored by politicians: very dumb indeed

15. What’s going on: The crisis and referendums If there is a loss of output legitimicay… why not try to balance it by increasing the input of citizens? E.g. through referendums • Because politicians believe it is the best thing to do (principled)

16. What’s going on: The crisis and referendums Ifthere is a loss of output legitimicay, whynottry to balanceitbyincreasing the input of citizens? • Becausepoliticiansbelieveit is the best thing to do (principled) • Becauseitmakesthemco-responsiblefor the budget cuts (cynical)

17. What’s going on: The crisis and referendums • Becauseitincreases the bargainingpositionof the governmentvis-a-visexternalcreditors (Iceland 2010 and 2012) (cunning) ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziftaoYIDek

18. What’s going on: The crisis and democratic innovations More referendums and expanding referendum legislation indeed. But citizen involvement could also be in a more ‘innovative way’: Direct involvement in decision-making process (Iceland, Ireland, Estonia) • ‘Pots and pans’ revolution • Government resigned – opposition wins elections • Constitutional convention (after a lot of difficulties) • 25 members: draft new constitution: ‘crowdsourcing the constitution’

19. Conclusion: Legitimacy in times of crisis 1. Democracy • Goldfish… well this time is actually different: • Most democracies actually managed to survive crisis quite well 2. Elections • Populist threat is overblown • Governments suffered though… • Elections = payback time

20. Conclusion: Legitimacy in times of crisis 3. Referendums • New experiments with citizen participation and referendums: • More but not merrier? 4. Democratic innovations • Prudent steps… • If politicians take the people seriously, people will take politicians seriously Legitimacy is a tricky issue, but never waste a good crisis So far, it’s been a fairly good crisis