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Vulnerability of barramundi and aligned industries to climate change

Vulnerability of barramundi and aligned industries to climate change. Dean Jerry , Carolyn Smith-Keune, Guy Carton, Jeremy VanderWal , Igor Pirozzi, Kate Hutson, Lauren Hodgson School Marine and Tropical Biology James Cook University. Climate change predictions.

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Vulnerability of barramundi and aligned industries to climate change

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  1. Vulnerability of barramundi and aligned industries to climate change Dean Jerry, Carolyn Smith-Keune, Guy Carton, Jeremy VanderWal, Igor Pirozzi, Kate Hutson, Lauren Hodgson School Marine and Tropical Biology James Cook University

  2. Climate change predictions

  3. Climate change predictions - temp http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

  4. Climate change predictions - precipitation http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

  5. Climate effects on barramundi recruitment • Strong link between • -Warm sea temps • -High rainfall/low evaporation Balston 2007

  6. Climate effects relevant to aquaculture Food consumption Growth rate Disease resistance Fecundity Temperature

  7. Genetic structure of barramundi

  8. Thermal tolerance in barramundi Time until onset of LOSE (min) Darwin Central Qld Darwin Gladstone Newton, J.R., Smith-Keune, C., and Jerry, D.R. (2010). Thermal tolerance varies in tropical and sub-tropical populations of barramundi (Latescalcarifer) consistent with local adaptation. Aquaculture 308 (Suppl 1), S128-S132. Edmunds, R.C et al (2010). Population specific locomotor phenotypes are displayed by barramundi, Latescalcarifer, in response to thermal stress. Canadian J. Fish. Aquat. Sci..

  9. Darwin 40 C Gladstone Thermal tolerance in barramundi Time until onset of LOSE (min)

  10. NCCARF Marine Adaptation Research Program

  11. Project goals • Define current thermal tolerances and associated physiological/energetic profiles of different barramundi genetic stocks • Establish genetic basis of thermal tolerance and association with geography • Quantify impacts of parasites and develop adaptive management strategies • Develop predictive models incorporating physiological, genetic data with available population genetic, environmental and fisheries data to identify vulnerable wild stocks and opportunities for expansion of fisheries and aquaculture

  12. Defining strain thermal tolerance L/D Cell Ratio LOSE

  13. Landscape genetics • Strong neutral genetic structure • Is this linked to functional genetic diversity?? • Correlate genetic diversity/environmental parameters • Understand drivers population evolution • Identify genes/gene regions influencing thermal adaptation

  14. Physiological testing • Routine Metabolic Rate and Aerobic Scope vs Temperature • Plasticity of aerobic system • Hypoxia tolerance Portner, 2010

  15. Bioenergetics profiling • Protein, energy and feed utilisation • Temperature dependence/strain • Proximate analyses linked to performance indices

  16. Parasite risk assessment • Impact climate change on parasite life-cycles • Parasite survey/risk assessment • Parasite infection dynamics b/tn barra strains 1. Survival 2. Time to hatch 3. Hatching success

  17. Holistic modelling • Wt gain as function water temp (Glencross 2008) • AWAP min/max air temps • Proofed against QDPI reported growth data Walkamin Figure 1. Current annual suitability (estimated as gain in grams per day for one year) for barramundi aquaculture. Where monthly mean temperature during the coldest month reached 15C these areas were considered unsuitable and were marked in grey.

  18. Figure 2. Current and future suitability (estimated as gain in grams per day for one year) for barramundi aquaculture. Where monthly mean temperature during the coldest month reached 15C these areas were considered unsuitable and were marked in grey. Areas in yellow and red in future scenarios are high risk areas, meaning that 1 or more global climate model predicted temperatures below 15C.

  19. Outputs • Holistic predictive spatial models of impacts climate scenarios have on wild and cultured populations • New knowledge on functional genetic structure • List of potential genetic markers correlated with candidate thermal genes • Relative tolerance ranking of genetic stocks to upper thermal stress • List of parasites of threat and knowledge of influence of temperature, salinity etc on lifecycles, susceptibility of genetic strains • Delimitation of physiological/bioenergetic parameters of genetic stocks

  20. Adaptation options arising • The identification of wild and cultured fisheries under threat • Possible opportunities where population demographics may benefit under altered climate scenarios • Identification of thermally tolerant strains that maintain metabolic homeostasis and exhibit efficient bioenergetic processing of artificial foods for aquaculture – match to climate • Improved understanding of threat posed by parasites and development of integrated management strategies

  21. Help • Opportunity to use/collect environmental farm data • Provide targeted growth models • Growth, survival, FCR data

  22. Growth & weight gain at Mareebagiven daily temperature data

  23. Does it fit? • QDPI Mareeba (Austasia Aquaculture) • 9months produces 900 to 1200 g fish • 15 months produces 12 to 1500 g fish • 21 months produces 2500 to 3000 g fish

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