Operational Status of Flash Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Capabilities at NMHSs

1. TheRepublic of Turkey The Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs Operational Status of Flash Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Capabilities at NMHSs Presented by Ertan TURGU* eturgu@mgm.gov.tr Contributers: Dr. Mustafa Coşkun* mustafacoskun@mgm.gov.tr Yusuf Ulupınar* skose@mgm.gov.tr Seyfullah Çelik* scelik@mgm.gov.tr Ekrem Gülsoy* egulsoy@mgm.gov.tr Ali İhsan Akbaş* aiakbaş@mgm.gov.tr Serhan Köse* skose@mgm.gov.tr Mehmet Aksoy* maksoy@mgm.gov.tr Esin Oğuz* eoguz@mgm.gov.tr *Turkish State Meteorological Service, Research Department, Hydrometeorology Division. Follow Up Operations Workshop on South East Europe Flash Flood Guidance (SEEFFG) System, 09-13 May 2016, Zagreb, Croatia

2. Outline Introduction Background of the FFGS Operational use of BSMEFFG Phases of the FFGS project RC project activities performed in Turkey and other participating countries. Real-time data status by Dashboard Image products for GHE-01h, Download and inventory status Data processing status Computational server status Dissemination server statusPhases of the FFGS project

3. Introduction (1) FF earlywarning-responsesystemconsists of: A RC computationscomponentand An adjustmentsandwarningresponsecomponentimplemented at individualcountryagencies in theregion. Here, thecomputationalcore at the RC runsmeso-scalemeteorological model andhighresolutionhydrologic model fortheregionthatproducevariousdiagnosticindicesandnowcasts/forecasts of precipitation, soilwaterdeficitandflashfloodpotentialforsmallstreams on thebasis of RADAR (ifavailable), satelliteestimates of precipitation withhighresolutionandshortlatencyandreal time operationalraingauge. (HRC Tech.Note 53)

4. Introduction (2) FF occurrence is clearly not driven by heavy precipitation alone. It has long been recognized that there are both climatic and physiographic influences on the occurrence of flooding which include precipitation, topography and soil properties (Georgekakos,1986). The land surface plays an important role in modulating the amount of precipitation required to produce FF through soil saturation. (HRC Tech.Note 8)

5. Background of the FFGS project (1) The WMO Congress XV in 2007 approved the implementation of a Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) project with a global coverage, developed by Commission for Hydrology (CHy) jointly with WMO Commission for Basic System (CBS) in collaboration with the US National Weather Service, the US Hydrologic Research Center and USAID/OFDA. On 25 February 2009 WMO signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with USAID, HRC, and NOAA on the implementation of the project. Based on the Memorandum of Understanding, WMO, HRC and USAID agreed to start preparations for the implementation of the project in the Black Sea and Middle East Region.

6. Background of the FFGS project (2) BSME-FFG initial meeting was held in İstanbul on 29-31 March 2010 with the participating countries of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Turkey was elected as Regional Center. • Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Jordan sent Letter of Commitment to WMO . • Turkey is currently hosting as the Regional Center for BSMEFFG system and SEEFFG system.

7. Operational use of BSMEFFG project (1) When there is a pronounced low pressure area in the Mediterranean sea, forecaster shoud pay attention and analyse this system carefully. A rule of thumb, such low produces heavy precipitation over Balkans and Turkey.. In Turkey, during the winter, cold fronts come in association with low pressure area and often bring heavy precipitation. On the other hand, in spring and autumn, precipitation which causes FF is associated with not only lows but also with convection. During summer, convective storms are often responsible for FF.

8. Operational use of BSMEFFG project (2) The FFGS products are made available to users to support their anaysis of weather-related events that can initiate FF (e.g.., heavy rainfall, rainfall on saturated soils) and then to make a rapid evaluation of the potential for FF at a location. To assess the threat of a local FF, the FFGS is designed to allow product adjustments based on the forecaster’s experience, incorporation of other information (e.g., NWP output) or local observer reports. The system supports evaluation of the threat of FF over hourly to six hourly time scales for stream basins.

9. Operational use of BSMEFFG project (3) Important technical element of the FFGS are the use of a bias corrected radar and/or satellite precipitation estimate and the use of land surface hydrologic modeling. The system then provides information on rainfall and hydrologic response, i.e. the two important factors in determining the potential for a FF. The system is based on the concept of FFG and FFT. These indices provide the user with the information needed to evaluate the potential for FF, including assessing the uncertainty associated with the data.

10. Phases of the FFGS project (1) As part of the development and implementation programs for BSMEFFG system, various tasks and activities are accomplished: Phase 1: Generation of Basin delineation. At the regional level more than 6.900 sub-basins with average area of 200 km2 were generated while 2.900 sub-basins were generated for Turkey. We have been using high resolution of basin delineation with approximately 11.800 sub-basins for Turkey since 2014.

11. Phases of the FFGS project (2) Phase 2: Setting up model parameters for more than 40 Hidro-meteorological historical data variables were processed in GIS and put FFG ftp server at TSMS. Some of these parameters are as follows:Soil data, LU/LC, DEM (SRTM 90m, 30m) data, stream flow data, dams and lakes, rivers, long term precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind data, evaporation, soil moisture, radiation data etc.

12. Phases of the FFGS project (3) Phase 3: Model Calibration. This was performed by using co-located 19 meteorological station and stream gauge station where flash floods occured. Phase 4: System Beta version became available. It was started to test model products using real time meteorological data and to evaluate model products. Phase 5: Long-term training given by HRC, California, U.S.A. to 4 persons of TSMS. Phase 6: Installation on the servers located at the RC premises in Ankara and implementation of FFGS. So, BSMEFFGS was established on 1 July 2013 in TSMS.

13. Phases of the FFGS project (4) Phase 7: Employees of NWP department of TSMS and employees of Regional Forecasting and Warning Centre (called BTUM) from provinces were trained by employees of Hydrometeorology Division on how to use effectively FFGS products in their operations. Phase 8: Workshop was held between participating countries. Phase 9: Run the FFG system with higher resolution of basin delineation, i.e., from 90 m DEM to 30m DEM.

14. Phases of the FFGS project (5) Phase10: Start tousethe FFG systemoperationallyandmadeverification. Phase11:Calculatecrosssectionareas of eachsub-basinandfindmathematicalrelationships. Phase12: Visualizethe FFGS productstoallusersincludingmemberstateusers in twoandthreeedimensionaldisplaysusing GIS software. (not ready) Phase13: Run the FFGS withdifferent NWP modelssuch as WRF and ECMWF besidesAladin-Alaro model. (not ready) Phase14: Increase a number of AWOS to be inputtothe FFGS togivemoreaccurate data. (from 129 to 871)

15. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (1) • Regional Workshop on Snow Accumulation and Melt in South Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Black Sea and Middle East (BSME) was held between 26th - 29 th March 2012 in Ankara. • The Initial Planning Workshop of the SEEFFG System was held in Ankara, Turkey, January 22-24, 2013, attended by representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Croatia, Montenegro, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovenia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Turkey; all of which supported the offer of the Republic of Turkey to become the SEEFFG project Regional Centre.

16. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (2) • RADAR precipitation and MWGHE precipitation were added to BSMEFFGS in January 2013. RAIN1 product with 11 radars, now 6 more planned in Turkey • Employee training for Weather Forecast Department and Regional Forecasting and Early Warning Centers in Turkey was given between 30 October and 01 November 2013 in Ankara. • Short-term training on the use of BSMEFFGS products given by TSMS from 20-22 May 2014 in Armenia and from 26-28 May 2014 in Azerbaijan.

17. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (3) • Verification Report for 2014 was published in a book format. • The user guide was prepared in January 2015 in Turkish and English. • Cross section areas of each sub-basin were calculated and their mathematical relationships were derived. • Workshop on evaluation of BSMEFFG and urban flooding was held between 05 February and 06 February 2015 in Ankara.

18. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (4) • Initial Workshop on "Development and Implementation of a Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) as part of Global FFGS Planning Workshop” from 05 to 07 May 2015 in Ankara, Turkey”. Kazakhstan was elected as Regional Center. • On the job training on “Using FFGS product and FFGS model concept” was organized for Ethiopian staff working at Ethiopian Meteorology Agency between 19 the January 2016 and 28 January 2016.

19. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (5) • Since TSMS is focal point, the required historical hydro-meteorological data and spatial GIS data needed for system development from the participating countries are collected to assist the HRC during system development. • Cooperation Agreement will be signed between TSMS and WMO to concern the provision of support and services as its Regional Centre.

20. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (6) • The RC has been preparing bulletins and leading discussions to properly evaluate FF potential using the BSMEFFGS products and other available tools. • The RC has been evaluating the BSMEFFGS products from a regional perspective ensuring accuracy and consistency of FFGS products.

21. RC Project Activities Performed in Turkey and other participating countries (7) • The RC has adequate intranet and internet network capabilities • toallowparticipatingNHMSstoaccessthe BSMEFFG products; • toexchange data amongparticipatingNMHSsandtheBSMEFFGS developer (HRC); • todownload global satellite precipitation data andparticipatingNMHSs in-situmeteorologicaldata throughthe WMO GTS or WMO WIS. • The RC maintainsthe BSMEFFGS databaseandwillmake data availabletoparticipatingNMHSs.

22. Results The project duration was 5 years starting from 31 March 2010 to 31 December 2015. It started operationally in 2013. TSMS has been implementing FFGS to strengthen regionalcapacity to develop timely and accurate FF warnings. BSMEFFG project has contributed towards reducing the vulnerability of the region to hydro-meteorological disasters, specifically flash floods in Turkey.

23. Thankyouforyourattention Presented by Ertan TURGU* eturgu@mgm.gov.tr *Turkish State Meteorological Service, Research Department, Hydrometeorology Division.