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Navigating the Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit: Challenges and Strategies for Household Projections

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This document explores the Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit’s approach to housing population projections, detailing past models such as the FORTRAN model from the 1970s and the 2005 POP House Lab Group. It assesses the challenges of accurately modeling household population changes due to factors like migration and net house builds. The text evaluates various options to enhance household population tracking, including adjustments to migration rates and household representative rates. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of thorough understanding and manipulation of these models to achieve better projections.

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Navigating the Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit: Challenges and Strategies for Household Projections

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  1. GETTING TO GRIPS WITH HOUSEGROUP Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit Piers Elias

  2. Introduction • JSU’s Previous Model • Aims • Reality • Nature of the Challenge • Solutions & Problems • Conclusion

  3. HISTORY • FORTRAN Model from the 1970s • Cohort Component, Housing Led • Transfer to PC Version in late 1996 • Added Darlington 1997 • POP HOUSE LAB GROUP Late 2005

  4. AIMS • Run modles in parallel to check • Use POP, House, LAB Group • Replace and enhance existing information • Sit back and relax

  5. Reality • Purchased December 2005 • POPGroup - sorted • HouseGroup - not got there yet • LabGroup – not even looked at

  6. The Challenge • Mid 2001 Resident Pop Household Pop  Household Representative Rates (HRR) Households

  7. 2001 to 2003 • Net Change in Households vs Net Build

  8. 2003 •  Households beginning to diverge

  9. 2003 - 2006 • Net Change in Households vs Net Build

  10. 2006 •  Households beginning to diverge

  11. 2021 •  Long term variation

  12. DCLG Model • Uses long term trends from 1971 • Doesn’t reflect local changes in build or economic environment • Need for alternative

  13. Replicating “OLD” Model • Migration for Tees Valley determined by Trends • District Migration determined by Net House Build with trends in mind & Age Profile • Net House Build & Migrant Age profile determines Household Population • Use HRR to squeeze Household Population into estimated Target Households.

  14. HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION MIGRATION

  15. Household Targetting - Options • Use POPGROUP - Alter Migration rates to alter Total Pop, hence HHld Pop • Use POPGROUP - Use Dwelling Change option in HHDWELL • Use HOUSEGROUP - Alter Household Representative Rates to give Number of Households (INRATES) • Use HOUSEGROUP to alter the Household Population (POPHH & HHPop_forecast)

  16. Option 1 – POPGROUPMigration rates • Along with a basic HOUSEGROUP run • Hard to control to hit target Households • Uses DCLG rates which doesn’t help LA level projections

  17. Option 2 – POPGROUP HHDWELL • Needs HOUSEGroup to be set up beforehand • Input your Dwelling Change and Migration is adjusted after comparing with DCLG Households But… Lose control over Migration

  18. Option 3 – HOUSEGROUPINRATES • IN_RATES - Set up calculation to target Households but …. • Concealed Households • Couldn’t resolve different figures…ongoing • Most potential

  19. Option 4 – HOUSEGROUPPOPHH & HHPop_forecast • Not sure if or how this would work – probably not

  20. CONCLUSION • Altering Household Rep Rates shows most potential • Reading the manual helps • Course on Manipulating Household projections? • Anyone already there, please let me know!

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