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2006-2016 LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK

2006-2016 LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK . Presenter: Victoria Udalova, Economist Office of Economic Advisors WI Department of Workforce Development. Today We Will Talk About…. Aging Population Long-Term Employment Outlook: Career Clusters (growth & openings)

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2006-2016 LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK

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  1. 2006-2016LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK Presenter: Victoria Udalova, Economist Office of Economic Advisors WI Department of Workforce Development

  2. Today We Will Talk About… • Aging Population • Long-Term Employment Outlook: • Career Clusters (growth & openings) • Fastest Growing Occupations • Education & Training • Wisconsin vs. U.S.

  3. If only it was that easy…

  4. Population & Labor Force in U.S. Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from U.S. Bureau of Labor

  5. Population & Labor Force in WI Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from WI Department of Administration Demographic Services Center, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. Bureau of Labor

  6. Wisconsin’s Potential Labor Force “Entrants” & “Exiters” Source: WI Department of Administration, Demographic Services Center

  7. How Will Aging Population Affect Labor Market? Aging Population Baby-Boomers Retire Supply of Workers Shrinks

  8. Employers won’t be as fortunate as in the past…

  9. How to Deal With This Issue? Increase Skills & Education Change in demand for goods Productivity Increases “More with Less” Capital Intensity Rise Wages Rise

  10. Fundamental Questions of Projections • Looking back, how have economic, technological, demographic, social, and political forces shaped employment? • How will these forces change in the future? • What are the consequences of these changes for future employment levels?

  11. Another Fundamental Question of Projections Are you willing to be wrong?

  12. Inputs • DATA • Historic employment • National projections • Explanatory variables • KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT • Victoria • OEA Staff • Panel Members • US Bureau of Labor Statistics Staff • Other States’ Projections Staff

  13. But even in the best of circumstances our knowledge is incomplete … • Shocks • New, previously unknown, industries and occupations may appear • Industries and occupations that exist elsewhere, but not previously in Wisconsin, may appear

  14. 2016 Projection WI Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment, 1939-2007, and Projected 2016 Note: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Employment figures on this graph do not include self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private households. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) & Office of Economic Advisors, WI Projections 2006-2016

  15. U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016 Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  16. U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016 (continued) Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  17. U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16 Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  18. U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16 (continued) Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  19. Replacement Needs Will Increase in the Future Net replacement openings need to be considered when exploring the future prospects of any occupation. The need to fill replacement openings will only increase over the next decade as the first wave of baby boomers begin to retire.

  20. When I grow up, I’m going to be an electrical engineer and when that field is down, I’m going to go into real estate and when that slows down, I’m going to go into…” The economy is shifting to a knowledge-based work where continuous retraining throughout careers will become even more important than the initial training when entering the workforce.

  21. Today Presentation’s Focus Clusters… • Marketing: • Marketing Mgmt • Professional Sales • Merchandising • Marketing Communications • Marketing Research • IT: • Network Systems • Information Support & Services • Web & Digital Communications • Programming & Software Dev. • Business, Mgmt & Administration • General Mgmt • Business Information Mgmt • Human Resources Mgmt • Operations Mgmt • Administrative Support • STEM: • Engineering & Technology • Science & Math

  22. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  23. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  24. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  25. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  26. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  27. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  28. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  29. Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations 2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  30. Wisconsin’s Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs) Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  31. U.S. Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs) Source: 2006-2016 U.S. Projections, BLS & Office of Economic Advisors, DWD

  32. Wisconsin’s Top Ten Industries with the Most New Jobs, 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  33. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  34. Top Ten Wisconsin Occupations with the Most Job Openings, 2006 & 2016 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  35. 31% Job Openings by Education and Training 2006 & 2016 ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training MT OJT = moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT = long-term on-the-job training WORK = work experience in a related occupation VOC = postsecondary vocational training AA/AS = associate degree BA/BS = bachelor’s degree BA PLUS = more than a bachelor’s degree Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  36. Bottom Line As the nation’s labor force tries to stay competitive in the global marketplace, more emphasis will be placed on education and training. In today’s economy, knowledge is becoming increasingly valuable, which is consistently reflected by high growth rates in employment in the occupations typically requiring some type of postsecondary education.

  37. Education and Training, 2006 & 2016 Fastest growing occupations have higher education and training Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016

  38. For more information contact: Victoria Udalova Victoria.Udalova@dwd.wisconsin.gov (608) 267-9607 http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

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