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The Long-Term Economic Landscape of the Western U.S.: Key Trends and Insights

This report explores the economic outlook for the Western United States, analyzing factors such as job growth, venture capital investments, internet economy, high-tech industry, and demographic shifts. It highlights the region's strengths and challenges, including varying state economic performances, exposure to exports, housing balance, and population growth projections. The analysis also discusses the West's position in key sectors like biotech, internet-related firms, and high-tech jobs, along with regional patterns in job growth and industry diversification. Insights on long-term trends and projections provide valuable information for businesses and policymakers in the region.

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The Long-Term Economic Landscape of the Western U.S.: Key Trends and Insights

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  1. The Long-Term Outlook for the West Steven G. Cochrane Director, Regional Services, RFA May 31, 2000

  2. Job Growth: Few Outliers U.S. = 2.2% Below Average Average Above Average % change year ago, 3-mo. moving average, February 2000 Average is within 1/2 std. dev. of mean state growth rate of 2.0%

  3. Variation of State Economic Performance Stays Narrow Oil Price Shock 90-91 Recession Peso Devaluation Trend Line Standard deviation of year-to-year job growth by state Source: BLS

  4. Most Major Metros Are Doing Well

  5. Exposure to ExportsCommodity exports as a share of GDP U.S. = 7.5% in 1999 Below Average Average Above Average Sources: MISER, BEA, RFA

  6. Venture Capital Supports the West Venture Capital Placements by Region ($B) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

  7. Venture Capital Is ConcentratedV.C. placements as a % share of GDP, 1999 U.S. = 0.39% Below Average Average Above Average Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, BEA, RFA

  8. California Metro Areas Soak Up V.C. Venture capital as a % share of gross metro product, 1999 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

  9. West Is Home to More Internet Sites Location of web site owners, based on approximately 75,000 sites Source: Alexa Research, 2000

  10. More Than Half the Internet Economy is in the West By headquarters location of Internet-related firms % of U.S. May 19, 2000 *Public and private companies

  11. Southern & Western Internet-Related Firms holding Value Better % change in Market Cap Mid-February to May 19

  12. Number of Internet-related Firms

  13. Market Capitalization as Percent of GMP

  14. Computer & Internet-related jobs Occupations include: Electrical & electronic engineers Computer engineers and mathematicians Engineering and science technicians Programmers % share of total employment

  15. Biotech Related Jobs Occupations include: Life scientists Chemists and other physical scientists % share of total employment

  16. Housing Balance:Tight in CA; Plentiful Elsewhere Months of excess supply

  17. Business Costs MatterRFA’s Cost of Doing Business Index % share of total employment

  18. West’s Population Will Grow By More Than One-Third in 30 years Millions 26% 25% 24% 23% 21% of U.S.

  19. West’s Population Will Be Older % of total population 25-44 45-64 5-19 65+

  20. Metro Areas Will Dominate % of West’s total population in metropolitan areas California crisis Long-term trend Rural renaissance Metro rebound

  21. Mountain West Job Growth is FastestAnnualized 30-year job growth, 2000 to 2030 U.S. = 1.0% Above Average Average Below Average

  22. West Extends Lead in High-Tech Jobs High-tech employment as % share of total West Rest of U.S.

  23. Mountain States Takes Greater Share of Jobs % share of U.S. employment Pacific States Mountain States

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