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The Long-Term Outlook for the West

The Long-Term Outlook for the West. Steven G. Cochrane Director, Regional Services, RFA May 31, 2000. Job Growth: Few Outliers. U.S. = 2.2%. Below Average. Average. Above Average. % change year ago, 3-mo. moving average, February 2000

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The Long-Term Outlook for the West

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  1. The Long-Term Outlook for the West Steven G. Cochrane Director, Regional Services, RFA May 31, 2000

  2. Job Growth: Few Outliers U.S. = 2.2% Below Average Average Above Average % change year ago, 3-mo. moving average, February 2000 Average is within 1/2 std. dev. of mean state growth rate of 2.0%

  3. Variation of State Economic Performance Stays Narrow Oil Price Shock 90-91 Recession Peso Devaluation Trend Line Standard deviation of year-to-year job growth by state Source: BLS

  4. Most Major Metros Are Doing Well

  5. Exposure to ExportsCommodity exports as a share of GDP U.S. = 7.5% in 1999 Below Average Average Above Average Sources: MISER, BEA, RFA

  6. Venture Capital Supports the West Venture Capital Placements by Region ($B) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

  7. Venture Capital Is ConcentratedV.C. placements as a % share of GDP, 1999 U.S. = 0.39% Below Average Average Above Average Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, BEA, RFA

  8. California Metro Areas Soak Up V.C. Venture capital as a % share of gross metro product, 1999 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

  9. West Is Home to More Internet Sites Location of web site owners, based on approximately 75,000 sites Source: Alexa Research, 2000

  10. More Than Half the Internet Economy is in the West By headquarters location of Internet-related firms % of U.S. May 19, 2000 *Public and private companies

  11. Southern & Western Internet-Related Firms holding Value Better % change in Market Cap Mid-February to May 19

  12. Number of Internet-related Firms

  13. Market Capitalization as Percent of GMP

  14. Computer & Internet-related jobs Occupations include: Electrical & electronic engineers Computer engineers and mathematicians Engineering and science technicians Programmers % share of total employment

  15. Biotech Related Jobs Occupations include: Life scientists Chemists and other physical scientists % share of total employment

  16. Housing Balance:Tight in CA; Plentiful Elsewhere Months of excess supply

  17. Business Costs MatterRFA’s Cost of Doing Business Index % share of total employment

  18. West’s Population Will Grow By More Than One-Third in 30 years Millions 26% 25% 24% 23% 21% of U.S.

  19. West’s Population Will Be Older % of total population 25-44 45-64 5-19 65+

  20. Metro Areas Will Dominate % of West’s total population in metropolitan areas California crisis Long-term trend Rural renaissance Metro rebound

  21. Mountain West Job Growth is FastestAnnualized 30-year job growth, 2000 to 2030 U.S. = 1.0% Above Average Average Below Average

  22. West Extends Lead in High-Tech Jobs High-tech employment as % share of total West Rest of U.S.

  23. Mountain States Takes Greater Share of Jobs % share of U.S. employment Pacific States Mountain States

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