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THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK

THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK. Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins. WHAT DO WE MEAN?. RISK. RISK. CONSEQUENCE. LIKELIHOOD. HAZARD. CONSEQUENCE. LIKELIHOOD. RISK. HAZARD. Risk Perception & Aversion. What is risk as far as You are concerned

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THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK

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  1. THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins

  2. WHAT DO WE MEAN? RISK

  3. RISK CONSEQUENCE LIKELIHOOD HAZARD

  4. CONSEQUENCE LIKELIHOOD RISK HAZARD

  5. Risk Perception & Aversion • What is risk as far as • You are concerned • The public are concerned • Your clientsare concerned • Owners~shareholders are concerned

  6. Factor 1: Unknown risk SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER DNA RESEARCH EARTH ORBITING SATELLITE SPACE EXPLORATION FOOD IRRADIATION LASERS NUCLEAR POWER FOOD COLOURING LAETRIL SODIUM NITRATE SACCHARINE FLUORESCENT LIGHTS WATER FLUORIDATION COSMETICS CHEMICAL DISINFECTANTS FOOD PRESERVATIVES NON-NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER MICROWAVE OVENS HYDROELECTRIC POWER HAIR DYES LIQUID NATURAL GAS ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES ASPIRIN CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS ASBESTOS DIAGNOSTIC X-RAYS RADIATION THERAPY HERBICIDES FOSSIL ELECTRIC POWER DDT PESTICIDES CHRISTMAS TREE LIGHTS Factor 2: Dread risk JOGGING PRESCRIPTION DRUGS SST SKYSCRAPERS SUNBATHING VACCINATIONS ANTIBIOTICS BRIDGES VALIUM HOME GAS FURNACES NERVE GAS HOME APPLIANCES DARVON ANESTHETICS TRACTORS MUSHROOM HUNTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS JUMBO JETS ROLLER COASTERS SKATEBOARDS SCUBA DIVING NATIONAL DEFENCE OPEN-HEART SURGERY PREGNANCY, CHILDBIRTH SURGERY POWER LAWN MOWERS FIREWORKS SURFING COMMERCIAL AVIATION CAFFEINE RAILROADS TERRORISM SWIMMING POOLS GENERAL AVIATION MORPHINE RECREATIONAL BOATING BOXING BARBITURATES HOME POWER TOOLS ANPHETAMINES BICYCLES FOOTBALL SMOKING HEROIN WARFARE DYNAMITE MOTORCYCLES DOWNHILL SKIING MOUNTAIN CLIMBING CRIME HUNTING POLICE WORK ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES MOTOR VEHICLES FIREFIGHTING HANDGUNS Risks Perceived by Different Groups of People

  7. Factor 1: Unknown risk Factor 2: Dread risk Attitudes Towards Regulation of these Risks

  8. Transport Risks

  9. Fatality rate per 100 million Mode Pass kms Car 0.40 Van 0.20 TWMV 9.70 Pedal Cycle 4.30 Foot 5.30 Bus or Coach 0.04 Rail 0.10 Water 0.60 Air 0.03 Passenger Fatality by Mode of Travel Pass journeys 4.5 2.7 100 12 5.1 0.3 2.7 25 55 Pass hours 15 6.6 300 60 20 0.1 4.8 12 15

  10. Diving the Perception & Risk Diving involves the following: • Throwing yourself off a perfectly serviceable boat • Immerse yourself in an alien environment • Your oxygen source is very finite • Risk of the bends etc, etc

  11. Mobile Telephones • Media concern - micro wave exposure • Sales gone down? • Why? • Immediate benefit • No obvious & immediate detriment to you • High degree of personal control • Long term…….?

  12. RISK BENEFITS IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES

  13. MMR - further combined - Chickenpox • No proven link? • Reduction in vaccinations….. • Increase of measles & fatalities • Big industry involved……... • Lack of effective communication…?

  14. Mad Cow Disease - Beef On The Bone

  15. Risk Comparisons - Individual Risk of Ingestion of Infectivity -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 10-12 10-11 10-10 10-9 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100 MINISCULE RISK RISK RAPIDLY DECREASING RISK REMOTERISK ACCEPTED RAPIDLY INCREASING RISK RISK MASSIVE  Road Accidents  All Accidents  Dying from Cancer  Accidents on Railway 95% range Ingestion of Infectivity due to DRG Death from Sporadic CJD  Struck by lightning HSE: Maximum Tolerable Risk HSE: Broadly Acceptable Risk -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 Derived From John Paling © The Environmental Institute 1992 The Paling Perspective Scale

  16. Reputation damage Bad press How does Business Manage? • What measures are important to a company • Pro-active in managing the impacts on their business Financial loss

  17. Shell - Brent Spar

  18. Summary • Public perception: • Consequences vs immediate benefit • Degree of control • Under estimate familiar risks • Over estimate unfamiliar ~ unpalatable risks • Consideration in government decisions • Business must take account of the public perspective

  19. DET NORSKE VERITAS An Independent Foundation – Established 1864 Further information from: Vince Jenkins, DNV, Palace House, 3 Cathedral St, London. SE1 9DE. Tel: +44 (0)20-7716-6541 Fax: +44 (0)20-7357-0961 e-mail:vince.jenkins@dnv.com DNV - April 96 - No. 1

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