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Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum

Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum. Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008. Content. Company introduction. China Passenger Car market 2007. Registration volume since 2002. Parts analysis based on registration data. Our new product developments in 2008.

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Polk Presentation - for AASA Forum

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  1. Polk Presentation- for AASA Forum Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008

  2. Content • Company introduction. • China Passenger Car market 2007. • Registration volume since 2002. • Parts analysis based on registration data. • Our new product developments in 2008.

  3. Founded in 1870 with more than 80 years’ experience in automotive industry Operating globally in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific with 1,500 employees We provide services to every global automotive brand Our core purpose is: to collect and interpret data, and apply our automotive business expertise to help our clients make good business decisions and implement change on a global basis R. L. Polk is a global automotive expert

  4. Selection of our clients worldwide

  5. Beijing Polk-CATARC • Polk China is a Joint Venture between R. L. Polk & Co and the Chinese Automotive Technology and Research Centre (CATARC - 中国汽车技术研究中心) • Active in the Chinese market since January 1st, 2002 • China clients include major OEMs like VW, AUDI, BMW, Honda, Toyota, Ferrari, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Foton and Hyundai Finance

  6. Content • Company introduction. • China Passenger Car market 2007. • Registration volume since 2002. • Parts analysis based on registration data. • Our new product developments in 2008.

  7. Passenger vehicle registration data – Data elements Vehicle Information Geography Information Owner Information • 6 year history (2002 – 2007) • VIN • Origin (imported / domestic) • OEM • Brand • Model • Engine displacement • Transmission • Production date • Registration date • Body color (from 2007) • National level • Province level • City level • District level (county level city or county) • Postal code level • Property type (personal / company) • Purchase type (loan / cash) • Gender (from 2007) • Age (from 2007) Model and Geography Segmentation • Polk model segmentation – Body style and Vehicle size • Customized model segmentation • Customized geography segmentation

  8. Data Comparison Registration data can reflect China Passenger vehicle market domestic demand more accurately than wholesale data Stock increase led to wholesale data higher in Nov and Dec, lower in Jan Note:(1)Passenger Vehicle includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up. (2) Wholesale data includes export and domestic demand, excludes import data. So registration data reflects the domestic demand.

  9. PV Registration Volume by Year PV registration in 2007 maintained its steady growth, reaching 4,663,245 units, a year-on-year growth of 21.9% Note:PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.

  10. 90% PV Registration Volume and YoY Growth by Province Note:PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.

  11. Origin Analysis Market share of Japanese brands grew steadily and accounted for nearly 30% in 2007 Market Share（%）

  12. Body Style Analysis SUVs achieved faster year-on-year growth than any other body styles in 2007 PV Market Growth（by body style）

  13. Segmentation Analysis The medium segment accounted for nearly 50% of the total PV market in 2007 Market Share（%）

  14. 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Market Share by Province Japanese Brands Market Share – Total 2007 Jap Brands Total Reg.: 1,392,139 National Aver. Market Share: 29.9% Legend Higher than 40% 29.9% - 40% 25% - 29.9% - 25% 0% Top 5 Provinces of Jap Brands Market Share **Japanese brands’ weight in provinces’ PV market

  15. 1. Japanese Brands Analysis -Japanese Brands YOY Growth Vs. Total Market YOY Growth by Province YOY Growth Comparison Jap Brands Vs. Province Market Total 2007 vs. Total 2006 Legend Jap Brands YOY Growth Higher than Province Market Jap Brands YOY Growth Lower than Province Market Top 5 Provinces of Jap Brands YOY Growth

  16. 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - New Models More new models were released by Japanese OEMs in 2006 and 2007 32 26 25 15 8 Note: “new model” includes models just launched ,facelifts and new generation models, excludes small modifications and versions

  17. 1. Camry - Winner in Upper Medium Sedan Segment Camry was released in Jun 2006, its market share reaching 20% in the upper medium sedan segment in 2007 . Magotan performed below expectation with its market share only reaching 5%. New model release analysis

  18. 1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Accord’s Life-cycle The life cycle of the 8th generation Accord may be similar to that of the 7th generation, reaching its peak in the second year Present analysis Performance forecast Accord share in upper medium segment（%） Average share:27.7% Average share:25.4% Average share:19.2% Average share:18.3% Average share:14.8% The 8th generation introduce in Jan 2008 The 7th generation introduced in Feb 2003 60 66 72 78 88 …… …… …… Accumulated timeafter release（month）

  19. 2. SUVAnalysis- by Province SUV market share in PV was higher in the northwest region, and some other regions like Anhui and Beijing also showed rapid growth SUVRegistration Growth（2007） National YOY% of SUV 39.1% SUVShare in PV SUV Share in PV（National）7.2% SUVRegistration YOY%

  20. 2. SUVAnalysis- by Price Range • SUV models priced between RMB150,000-250,000 achieved a significant increase • Luxury SUV models were hot sellers in Zhejiang and Beijing

  21. 2. SUV Analysis- by Segment In terms of segment, the main driving force for SUVs in 2007 came form the medium segment, with the CRV leading the growth Land Cruiser Q7 …… Santa Fe Paladin …… Jimny Terios …… CR-V Tucson ……

  22. 2. SUVAnalysis- Winner: Honda CRV Released in Apr 2007, the 3rd generation CRV became the leader in the medium SUV market very quickly with it’s share exceeding 30% The 2nd CRV’s share is 23.5% in it’s life-cycle. The 3rd CRV released in Apr 2007 The 2nd CRV released in Apr 2004

  23. Beijing Jan-Dec 2007 by Post Code: Cayenne Competitor Set Registration Volume of Porsche Cayenne Competitor Set : Beijing( Jan-Dec 2007) Total Cayenne competitor set Registrations: 2,168 units Legend of Registration volume and dealerships locations by brand OVER 50 30 to 50 10 to 30 5 to 10 0 to 5 AUDI BMW MERCEDES-BENZ PORSCHE VOLKSWAGEN Cayenne competitor set includes： Porsche Cayenne (incl. S and Turbo) Audi Q7 BMW X5 Mercedes-Benz ML Series Volkswagen Touareg

  24. 3. Medium Segment Analysis - Body Style • Sedans still dominated the medium segment with almost 80% of market share • MPVand SUV segments showedrapid growth Market Growth in Medium Segment（by body style） Avg.YOY% of Medium segment : 33.1%

  25. 3. Medium Segment Analysis - Sedan The top 5 models accounted for 36% of the total medium sedan market, but their year-on-year growth rates were much lower than the average rate. Top 5 Medium Sedan Growth on Registration Top 5 Models of Medium Sedan（2007） 50 models included in Other medium sedan segment Note：Family IIwas released on Aug.31, 2006

  26. 3. Medium Segment Analysis – Car Buyers Compared to Excelle, Focus is more popular amongst the young and female buyers Car Buyers’ Age Distribution of Excelle & Focus Car Buyers’ Gender Distribution of Excelle & Focus Note: Excelle includes SW, sedan and HRV; Focus includes hatchback and sedan

  27. 3. Medium Segment Analysis- Excelle sedan registration by grade and price Excelle sedan registration by price In terms of grade, Luxury 1.6 Excelle dominated the Excelle registration By price, Excelle grades priced RMB117,800 and RMB127,800 were hot sellers Price Year：2007 Price : MSRP in Dec 2007 * Models in red color are the discontinued models Grade

  28. Content • Company introduction. • China Passenger Car market 2007. • Registration volume since 2002. • Parts analysis based on registration data. • Our new product developments in 2008.

  29. China PV* Registrations by Province (Year 2002-2007) China PV* Registrations 2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274 PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912 2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC: OVER 76% Legend OVER 1,000,000 500,000 to 1,000,000 300,000 to 500,000 100,000 to 300,000 0 to 100,000 Top 5 Provinces Note:PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up. PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008

  30. China PV* Registrations by City (Year 2002-2007) China PV* Registrations 2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274 PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912 2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC: OVER 76% Legend OVER 500,000 100,000 to 500,000 50,000 to 100,000 10,000 to 50,000 0 to 10,000 Top 5 Cities Note:PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up. PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008

  31. China PV Market Credit Rate • Vehicle credit buying started to improve since its low point in 2005 • Toyota, GM and VW finance schemes performed well in the Beijing market. Beijing PV market credit rate Total PV market credit rate PV market credit rate（%）

  32. Content • Company introduction. • China Passenger Car market 2007. • Registration volume since 2002. • Parts analysis based on registration data. • Our new product developments in 2008.

  33. Rear Suspension Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007 Rear Suspension Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks • 5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market • Market share of cars equipped with double wishbones kept decreasing • Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family

  34. Tire Type Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007 Tire Type Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks • 5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market • Market share of cars equipped with tire type 195/60 R15 kept decreasing • Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family

  35. Content • Company introduction. • China Passenger Car market 2007. • Registration volume since 2002. • Parts analysis based on registration data. • Our new product developments in 2008.

  36. New product development in 2008 • Commercial vehicle registrations data. • China Passenger vehicle Forecasts , model and regional level. • New Price & Specification system with model volume.

  37. Questions ? • Beijing Polk-CATARC • 1160 Sunflower Tower • 37 Maizidian Street, Chaoyang District • Beijing 100026, PR China • Tel   +86 10 85276955 • Fax  +86 10 85275782 • www.polk.com

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