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WFO BOX Thunderstorm Climatology for Aviation

WFO BOX Thunderstorm Climatology for Aviation. Thunderstorms in TAFs. Month by Month examination of TAF performance in FY06 July was our worst performing month during the FY. BAF was the worst performing station. From Climo, the two most likely demons would be dense fog and thunderstorms.

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WFO BOX Thunderstorm Climatology for Aviation

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  1. WFO BOX Thunderstorm Climatology for Aviation

  2. Thunderstorms in TAFs • Month by Month examination of TAF performance in FY06 • July was our worst performing month during the FY. • BAF was the worst performing station. • From Climo, the two most likely demons would be dense fog and thunderstorms.

  3. Thunderstorms in TAFs • Charted occurrence and duration of thunderstorms at BAF, BDL, ORH, and MHT in FY06. • Also Charted minimum ceiling and visibility at each site. • Used NCDC radar archive to locate thunderstorm core.

  4. Thunderstorms and TAFs • Average Thunderstorm duration at a terminal • BDL 51.8 minutes, max 180 minutes • ORH 56.1 minutes, max 85 minutes • MHT 56.8 minutes, max 110 minutes • BAF 57.9 minutes, max 132 minutes

  5. Thunderstorms and TAFs • Average Minimum Ceiling – Miss • BAF 5000 Feet • BDL 4000 Feet • ORH 2400 Feet • MHT 4500 Feet • Average Minimum Ceiling – Direct Hit • BAF 2600 Feet • BDL 2100 Feet • ORH 2400 Feet • MHT 900 Feet

  6. Thunderstorms and TAFs • Average Minimum Visibility – Miss • BAF 6 miles • BDL 7 miles • ORH 5 miles • MHT 7 miles • Average Minimum Visibility – Direct Hit • BAF 1.5 miles • BDL 1.25 miles • ORH 1.5 miles • MHT 1.5 miles

  7. Recommendation for TAFs • When forecasting thunderstorms: • Unless you know it will be a direct hit, forecast minimum ceiling of 4000-5000 feet and vsby of 4-6 miles. • For a direct hit, forecast a minimum ceiling of 2000-2500 feet and vsby of 1-2 miles. • If actual observations show differently, then go with the observations.

  8. Recommendation for TAFs • When forecasting thunderstorms: • Forecast for a maximum duration of 2 hours. • One hour duration is preferable. • Greater temporal precision, happier customers! • Don’t feel limited to the top of the hour. • FM2000…FM2200 • FM2030…FM2130 • Listen to your inner Nowcaster!

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