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Vince Cardone Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT

IMPACT OF HRD ON MODELING SURFACE WINDS AND OCEAN RESPONSE IN SUPPORT OF OFFSHORE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. Vince Cardone Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT. MY HAIRIEST RIDE! March, 1969 North Sea. March, 1969: Shannon, Ir. North Sea – 500 ft – 60 knots. NASA Convair 990 Laser wave profiler

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Vince Cardone Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT

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  1. IMPACT OF HRD ON MODELING SURFACE WINDS AND OCEAN RESPONSE IN SUPPORT OF OFFSHORE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Vince Cardone Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT

  2. MY HAIRIEST RIDE!March, 1969 North Sea

  3. March, 1969: Shannon, Ir.North Sea – 500 ft – 60 knots • NASA Convair 990 • Laser wave profiler • Downward looking camera • Scanning microwave radiometer 19.3 GHz • Nordberg-Conoway see first observations of spikes in emissivity when whitecap filled field of view • Basis for SMMR, SFMR

  4. Katrina/RITA Wind and Wave Impact in Gulf of Mexico

  5. Toppled and Damaged Platforms(of 4000+)

  6. Specification of Design Criteria

  7. Hindcast Approach Refined in Joint Industry Projects with Direct and Indirect HRD Input ODGP: Ocean Data Gathering Program (1969-71) Industry instrumented 6 platforms – direct hit by Camille (1969); Data calibrate first hindcast models for Hurricane winds and waves; used to develop “modern” criteria separating older prone- to-fail designs from more robust infrastructure that has faired quite Significant inputs from NHRP/RFF Data to ODGP Hindcasts ORHP: Ocean Response to a Hurricane Program: 1980s NOAA RFF drop current meters probes in EPAC &GMEX help establishes k-e turbulence closure model mixed layer model as viable tool to simulate current response above thermocline in deep water – recently recalibrated against unique ADCP dataset in Katrina with aid of HRD findings of asymptotic drag coefficient in inner core (Powell et al., 2003)

  8. LATEST HINDCAST DATABASEGOMOS • Gulf-wide grid of 6 NM grid spacing • Hindcast 300+ Hurricanes and Storms 1900-2005 • Mainly second-generation wave model physics • 2D hydrodynamic model in shallow water • 1-D k-e current profile model in deep water • Kinematic analysis of winds in complex storms • Forms basis of present criteria (API, MMS) and new MODU mooring requirements (2006)

  9. Define a relevant historical storm population and historical period (e.g. 1900-2005?; 1945-2005?; 1980-2005?) Specify time and space evolution of the wind field 30-minute average wind speed and direction at 10-m elevation over water using measured data-models-human analyst mix Ocean Response Hindcast: Waves Third-generation (OWI 3-G) spectral wave model Deep WaterMixed Layer Currents: 1D k-e model Shallow Layer Currents: Hydrodynamic model (e.g. ADCIRC) STATISTICAL MODELS: maximum wave and crest height, kinematics Same hindcast methods needed for alternative design approaches such as deductive approach, hindcast design storm (e.g. probably maximum hurricane, PMI storm.. Hindcast Approach

  10. Parametric radial wind profile e.g Myers-Malkin, HP, SLOSH, Cooper, Holland… Dynamical approaches Steady state: Chow(1971); Cardone, Greenwood and Greenwood, (1978), TC96 (Thompson & Cardone, 1996); Shapiro (1983) Non-steady: GFDL, MM5, COAMPS, WRF…. Kinematic approaches OWI IOKA: Cardone, Greenwood, Cox…. NHRD - HWndPowell Approaches to Surface Wind Analysis

  11. Diagnostic PE PBL Model Wind field “snapshots” Buoy/Rig comparisons show accuracy of +/- 20º in wind direction and +/- 2 m/s in wind speed Applied in worldwide tropical basins Tropical Wind Model (TC96)

  12. Speed and direction of vortex motion Equivalent geostrophic flow of the ambient PBL pressure field in which the vortex propagates Central Pressure Scale radius of exponential radial pressure profile Holland’s profile peakedness parameter Tropical Model Snapshot Inputs

  13. TC96 Based on Sue Chow (1971) (NYU Ooyama’s student)

  14. Camille(1969) – first real opportunity to “calibrate”a dynamical model against in-situ surface winds

  15. Pressure Profile Fit to Aircraft Data

  16. Variability of Wind Maxima and Radius during Katrina

  17. August-29-2005 00:00 GMT Katrina Wind Field

  18. Application of double exponential profile to model effect of eyewall replacement cycle on radial wind profile in Hurricane Gilbert (1988)

  19. Double Exponential Test

  20. NHRP Reports 1956 on -structure oriented, case studies: e.g. Graham and Hudson (1960); Colon (1963); Hawkins and Imbembo (1976) many others; also must mention influence of U. Colo. (Shey and Grey, 1973) Boundary Layer Structure: Myers and Malkin (1961); Moss and Rosenthal (1975); PBL Wind Profile: Powell (1980); Powell and Black (1990); Franklin et al. (2003) Surface stress parameterization: Frank (1984); Powell et al. (2003) Wind and Pressure models: Holland (1980); Willoughby and Rahn (2004) Mesoscale structures: Jorgensen(1983); Willoughby, Marks and Feinberg, 1984; Remote sensing of TC: Black and Swift(1984 )Uhlhorn and Black (2003) My summer of 1964 at NHC –Tropical Meteorology Institute G.Dean, N. LaSeur, C. Jordan; C. Gentry; B. Miller, S. Rosenthal, J. Malkin, H. Riehl, N. Frank HRD Influences - immense

  21. HWnd - NHRD KINEMATIC APPROACH

  22. Wind Analysis Distributed Application(WAnDA)nowHWnd

  23. HWnd vs. Tropical Model Winds Wanda TC96 Winds on Sept 15th 2000 15GMT HWnd: 37.3 m/s NHC: 45.4 m/s TC96/QuikScat: 43.3 m/s

  24. INSITU Ships Buoys C-MANS AIRCRAFT Minobs GPS Dropsonde Vortex Messages SATELLITE QUIKSCAT TOPEX/ERS TRMM NHC Warning Track and Intensity NCEP AVN/ETA/GFDL Track Models Ensembles HRD HWIND Wind Snapshots TC96 PBL/IOKA Basin Scale Winds Snapshots Where Required Inverse Modeling PROJECTION MODEL T-6 T+120 WINDGEN Coupled Response Models NHC Best Track Results NHC Track Suite Results NCEP Ensemble Results Probabilistic Results Forecaster Decision Support Products and Aids to NHC Output of RSMAS NOPP (Now in Real Time Testing)

  25. Track of Lili

  26. MODELLING CHALLENGES • Accurately describe along track variability of: Peak 10-m average wind speed Primary radius of maximum wind Evolution of concentric wind radii Evolution of wind maxima over azimuth Far field structure • Historical data homogenization and consistent data reanalysis

  27. Ivan provided a good view of natural variability in Po and Rmax at two different time scales (inter-daily and secular)This slide shows reconn dropsonde eye pressures

  28. Research Needs • synoptic climatology of surface wind structure; e.g. build on Colon’s (1963) “Daisy” vs “Helene” types • Eye wall replacement cycle, why so regular in some storms and not others? Ditto for azimuthal rotation of wind maximum? • Effects of recurvature (latitude) on Po, Rp, B? • Effects of ocean thermal potential on regional variations in storm climate (major currents, eddies)? • Effects of approach to land? Is recently seen filling of Cat.4/5 Gulf storms during approach to coast characteristic? Very important consideration for New Orleans levee redesign • Exploration of fully dynamical 3-D mesoscale models • In-situ surface boundary layer winds measurements • Air-sea interaction (e.g. Zo) in extreme hurricane inner core regimes in shallow water – again important for storm surge models • Climate trend and variability issues

  29. Closing thought: implication of inner core surface roughness and/or stress “saturation”: Fig.3a, 3c below from Powell et al., Nature, 2003 • Currents: capping C10 in k-e 1D current model cured positive bias • Wave response: C10 cap already in best 3G atmospheric input source term formulations such as OWI3G and version of WAM4.5 used in the RSMAS NOPP program on hurricane forecasting with coupled models • But what if stress itself is ultimately capped: statistical extrapolations to 10-4 probabilities may be too pessimistic….physics matters too!

  30. ADCP current measurements at Norsk Hydro Telemark Platform (30 NM east of track of Katrina)Large bias in peak hindcast near-surface currents eliminated by capping C10 to 2.2 x 10-3 in atmospheric forcing of Kantha-Clayson formulation (JGR, 1994)

  31. Extrapolation to 10**-4 • Extremal analysis on GOMOS hindcast database spanning 105(1900-2004) years at site in deep water south of MS Delta gives 100-year HS of 13.7 m and 10,000 HS of 25.9 m!, which implies maximum wave height of ~ 46 m ~ 150 ft! Limiting analysis to post 1950 storms increases extremes by about 10% • Can a hurricane really generate such a sea state?

  32. Happy 50th Keep up the Good Work CLOSING MESSAGE TO NHRP

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