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Mid-term presentation of Master’sThesis

Mid-term presentation of Master’sThesis. Supervisors: Alain Wegmann - lamswww.epfl.ch Yves Pigneur - www.hec.unil.ch/yp Thursday, 30 th June 2005 Rolf Lindbäck. Overview. The subject Action plan The work so far Future work. 1. The Subject. 3 parts:

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Mid-term presentation of Master’sThesis

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  1. Mid-term presentation of Master’sThesis Supervisors: Alain Wegmann - lamswww.epfl.ch Yves Pigneur - www.hec.unil.ch/yp Thursday, 30th June 2005 Rolf Lindbäck

  2. Overview • The subject • Action plan • The work so far • Future work

  3. 1. The Subject • 3 parts: • Comparison & integration of SEAM and EBMF • Applicability of analysis frameworks for VCs • Development for a CAD tool for quantitative analysis

  4. 2. Action Plan • Intro • Motivation • Introduction to SEAM and EBMF √ • GBAW Case Study using SEAM and EBMF √ • Compare SEAM and EBMF √ • Explain what VCs are looking for √ • Compare this to SEAM and EBMF √ • Looking for new opportunities • Active actors modelling √ • System dynamics modelling √ X • Obelix modelling X • Conclusion

  5. 3. The work so far (1) • GBAW Case Study using SEAM and EBMF • Observations: • EBMF based on Balanced Scorecard. It is created in order to describe a business model • SEAM based on Porter’s Value System. It is created in order to understand a “business idea” • It is possible to find every notion of the EBMF in the SEAM’s SAR section • Intermediate conclusion: • Even if SEAM is conceived in order to highlight the relations between the actors, EBMF describes them better • Difficult to combine both because of the fundamental difference in theories applied

  6. 3. The work so far (2) - VC • Pre-screening: • Apparent deal quality • mentioned by whom? • Quality of business plan, other investors, accounting firms? • Investment Compatibility • Does the company fit geographically-, personal- and portfolio-wise? • Management: • Quality of management team • Past success/failures, commitment, good enough skills, motivation • Board of advisers • Business Opportunity: • Potential of the product • Alsop’s formula: Quality+Innovation+Smarts+Money-Pain2 = Success • Business Plan • Markets and customers • Products and services • Distribution channel • Finance • Competitive strategy • Existing and future Competitors • Proprietary Advantage • Market share and First-Mover Advantage • Competitive positioning • Intangibles • Timing • Investors Gut Feeling • Legal • Company Business form • Intellectual property protection • Financial structure • Protection mechanism for fair treatment • Covenants, share conversion, voting rights • Financial • Valuation of the company • Three different ways: Market comparables, DCF, Venture Method • Its robustness • Probability of success Focus in new approach: More focus on financial part of the business modelling

  7. 3. The work so far (3) • Looking for new opportunities • Detailed business modelling • Understand how the product is sold… -> “product flow diagram” • …to better understand the cash flow… -> “cash flow diagram” • …which finally can give a good valuation of the business and the company • System Dynamics • Facilitates the long term modelling of the business with possibilities to play with the assumptions • The SeamCAD tool is already developed at EPFL… • …which is based on the systemic approach of the business… • …and together with SimSEAM, it respects the basics of System Dynamics • Intermediate conclusion: • It gives the opportunity to model the business and the profitability of every player which is important for a sustainable business plan • The valuation aspect is still to be proven • Underlying papers • Forecasting Investment opportunities through dynamic simulation, Stephen R.Parker 1997 • Gordijn – OBELIX

  8. 4. The future work • Work on the valuation aspect • Set up different scenarios which reflect possible strategies – strategic value • Try out the case-study using OBELIX

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