Climate and Ecosystems

1. Climate and Ecosystems Mickey Glantz 3 February 2009 IAFS 3000 CU mickeyglantz@hotmail.com A Global STEW

2. The past 50 years has seen a dramatic degradation of the earth’s natural capital CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Water Depletion Unsustainable consumption ….. 1900 1950 2000 Rockstrom

3. Commoner’s “4 Laws of Ecology” (KEEP THESE IN MIND) • Everything is connected to everything else. • Everything has to go somewhere or there is no such place as away. • Everything is always changing. • There is no such thing as a free lunch. rekkerd.org/img/random/ citarum_pollution.jpg Citarum River, Indonesia

4. Millennium Ecosystems Assessment: its mission • Ecosystems goods and services for Human well-being • What happens if we flip it around? • Human goods and services for Ecosystems well being

5. Stakeholders: • Governments • Private Sector • Civil Society Assessment Monitoring Research What is a policy-relevant assessment? A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers A scientific assessment applies the judgement of experts to existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy relevant questions. From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

6. Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems • food • fresh water • fuel wood • genetic resources Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems • spiritual • recreational • aesthetic • inspirational • educational Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes • climate regulation • disease regulation • flood regulation Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

7. Different ecosystems providing ecosystem services MA Chapters Ch. 19 Cultivated Systems Ch. 20 Dryland systems Ch. 21 Forest systems Ch. 22 Urban systems Ch. 23 Inland Water systems Ch. 24 Coastal systems Ch. 25 Marine systems Ch. 26 Polar Systems Ch. 27 Mountain systems Ch. 28 Island systems From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

8. MA: Largest assessment of the health of Earth’s ecosystems • Experts and Review Process • Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries • 80-person independent board of review editors • Review comments from 850 experts and governments • Governance • Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 • Authorized by governments through 4 conventions • Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, non-governmental organizations with a multi-stakeholder board of directors

9. MA’s Defining Features • Demand-driven • Providing information requested by governments, business, civil society • Assessment of current state of knowledge • A critical evaluation of information concerning the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being • Intended to be used to guide decisions on complex public issues • Authoritative information • Clarifies where there is broad consensus within the scientific community and where issues remain unresolved • Policy relevant not policy prescriptive

10. Overview of Findings • Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, • largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel • The changes contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, • But gains achieved at growing costs such as degradation of many ecosystem services, • increased risks of nonlinear changes, and • the exacerbation of poverty for some groups • The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century • barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) • The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met • these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices

11. Observed recent impacts of climate changes on ecosystems: • Changes in • species distributions • population sizes • timing of reproduction or migration events • the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks

12. Potential future impacts • By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally • Net harmful impact on ecosystem services • there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide • if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2o C above preindustrial levels (medium certainty). This would require CO2 stabilization at less than 450 ppm.

13. Melting Glaciers Columbia Glacier, Alaska

14. Aral Sea, Central Asia

15. Desertification Creation of desert-like conditions

16. Tropical deforestation:a creeping phenomenon

17. Greenland Total Melt Area – 2007 value exceeds last maximum by 10% From Hansen ppt Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

18. Surface Melt on Greenland Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) From Hansen ppt

19. Water pollution in Chinese river Crab-kill and other living resources

20. Stresses on Coral Reefs From Hansen ppt Coral Reef off Fiji (Photo: Kevin Roland)

21. Arctic Change: Future loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bears within 50 years. Source: U.S. Geological Surveywww.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/ Images: Sea Ice: Claire Parkinson & Robert Taylor Polar Bears: Unknown

22. Human Challenge • Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty • life expectancy increasing • infant mortality decreasing • agricultural production increasing, etc. • Major problems remain • 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day • 1 billion people do not have access to clean water • More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation • 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards considered acceptable by WHO • 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due to biomass burning Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54

23. Food Water Timber Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population. Wood demand will double in next 50 years. Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years • One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity. • Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

24. Human bees - hand pollination of apples in China Due to decline of bees and other pollinators Pollination of coffee in Costa Rica Twice as many bee visits plants near the forest Coffee plants near the forests had 20% greater yields and 27% fewer deformed beans Line Gordon: Stockholm Resilience Centre

25. The Lake Victoria Story • Nile Perch

26. Lake Victoria as an example of The Iron Law of “unintended consequences”

28. Lake Victoria vs. African population growth Note: Figures for 2010 and 2015 are estimates.

29. Population explosion around buffer zoneAfrica • Population growth around a 100 km buffer zone of Lake Victoria • Population growth around Lake Victoria, East Africa, is the highest in Africa

30. Invasive species attacking Lake VictoriaAfrica These images show water hyacinth infestation and control of such invasive species • 1995: Image shows several water-hyacinth-choked bays (yellow arrows) • 2001: A visible reduction of water hyacinth on Lake Victoria

31. Re-defining sustainable development • Markets do not tell us the ecological truth • What constitutes good life • The consequences of changes in global economies (China and India) • The role of biomimcry in greening business and society. Odeh Al-Jayyousi, IUCN @ OECD World Forum

32. Do We Need Nature? • This was the topic of a Shell Oil Co. essay contest It’s sad that we have to ask this question because … it suggests that the answer is not self-evident !