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IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY

IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS (1). The more integrated into the world economy, the more Vietnam’s economy affected by the up and down in the world economy. GDP declines: 2007: 8,4%; 2008 6,5%; 2009: 4,5% - 48%

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IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY

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  1. IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY

  2. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS (1) • The more integrated into the world economy, the more Vietnam’s economy affected by the up and down in the world economy. • GDP declines: 2007: 8,4%; 2008 6,5%; 2009: 4,5% - 48% • High inflation (2006: 6%; 2007: 12%, 2008: 23%)

  3. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS (2) • VN Index was slashed by more 50%. • Increasing trade deficit. • Unemployment is high (more than 300.000 at the end 2009)

  4. FINANCIAL CRISIS AND STABILITY • What are the threats to peace and stability? Vietnam Government emphasizes on non- traditional security problems: • Food, energy, financial security • Poverty • Inequality

  5. GOVERNMENT MEASURES(1) • Vietnam Government approved a stimulus program of $ 6 billion. • Stimulus measures are aimed at subsidizing/compensating interest rates for enterprises. • Develop infrastructure .

  6. GOVERNMENT MEASURES(2) • Helping low income families • Providing Financial assistance for unemployment • Encouraging companies to look for new export markets

  7. GOVERNMENT MEASURES(3) • Encouraging companies to buy equipment, machines, technology for post crisis business. • Looking for Foreign Direct Investment. • Stimulus program gives a positive result. GDP in the first quarter increased by 3,1%; exports rose by 2,4%, trade deficit declined.

  8. WHAT SHOULD WE DO TO COPE WITH FINANCIAL CRISIS AT REGIONAL LEVEL?Standing aside and hoping the problem goes away is not a good idea.

  9. RECOMMEDATIONS(1) 1/ Increasing the active role of regional governments as a market stimulator and supervisor. 2/ Enhancing intra - trade in Asia, reducing the impact of the slowdown in US/EU demand on Asian exports.

  10. RECOMMEDATIONS(1) 3/ Reducing the dependence of Asian Economies on US dollar (in the context of dollar volatility): Multilateralization, Asian Currency Cooperation.

  11. RECOMMEDATIONS(1) 4/ Improving regional financial surveillance mechanisms (an early surveillance, legal framework, risk management skills and policy coordination) as well as risk pricing capacity 5/ Finding new channels to help enterprises to cope with the current drying-up of liquidity.

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