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Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis

Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis . Ricardo Gazel Second AFR Economists Retreat Johannesburg, South Africa December 5, 2008. Impact on Financial Sector . Likely small as: No stock market

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Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis

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  1. Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis Ricardo Gazel Second AFR Economists Retreat Johannesburg, South Africa December 5, 2008

  2. Impact on Financial Sector • Likely small as: • No stock market • No strong connection of domestic bank system with international financial markets (except via Portuguese banks) • Small interbaking credit market • Low loans to deposit ratios • Solid macroeconomic indicators: budget surplus, high international reserves, low external debt.

  3. Net International Reserves US$ Millions

  4. Demand Deposit (Millions Kz) Demand Deposit Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Domestic Currency

  5. Impact on Inflation A stronger dollar can have an impact on inflation as import prices from Europen goods would be lower in Kwanzas

  6. Yearly Inflation

  7. Inflation – Year-over-Year Food 2008 Food 2007 CPI 2008 CPI 2007

  8. Exchange Rate: Nominal and Real

  9. Impact on Real Economy • Real Economy: • Lower price of oil – lower government revenues and lower national income • Lower government demand – lower growth of non-oil sector • Investment and Capital Flows • Less liquidity in international credit markets can reduce investment flows as price of capital increases • Higher Costs of Government Financing

  10. Exports:US$ Millions

  11. OPEC Reference Basket Price2008 - Daily

  12. Oil Exports:Volume and Price

  13. Oil Exports (US$ millions)

  14. Real Growth Rates 2007 – 2009 % • Year 2007 2008 2009 • Oil Sector: 20.4 11.7 5.9 • Non Oil Sector: 25.7 18.6 16.3 • GDP Total: 23.3 15.6 11.8

  15. I. Economic Growth

  16. OIL ProductionMillion Barrels per DayOPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

  17. Real Growth Rates 2007 – 2009 % • Year 2007 2008 2009 • Oil Sector: 20.4 11.7 5.9 • Non Oil Sector: 25.7 18.6 16.3 • GDP Total: 23.3 15.6 11.8

  18. Imports:US$ Millions and % of Composition

  19. Fiscal Accounts: Revenues Billions of Kwanzas)

  20. Fiscal Accounts: Growth Rates % over previous year

  21. Fiscal Accounts: Revenues and Expenditures(% do GDP)

  22. External Debt including Arrears

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