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Global energy 2010

Global energy 2010. On the base of GEM-10R model. Filippov S.P., Savin V.V., Beresentsev M.M., Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V., Lebedev A.V., Tropanets V.V. Content. Description of the GEM-10R model Preliminary results for 2010. Preliminary Remarks.

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Global energy 2010

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  1. Global energy 2010 On thebaseofGEM-10R model Filippov S.P., Savin V.V., Beresentsev M.M., Marchenko O.V.,Solomin S.V., Lebedev A.V., Tropanets V.V.

  2. Content • Description ofthe GEM-10R model • Preliminaryresultsfor 2010

  3. PreliminaryRemarks • The purpose of the model development was / is to understand the current situation of the global energy and to develop forecasts of the future energy developments • Global energystudiesareoftenmadebecauseenergyeconomicssciencetriestounderstand: • how fast thedepletionof non-renewableenergyresources will be; • how territorial disparities in availabilityofenergyresources, whichcouldbe potential reasonsforeconomicandpoliticalconflicts, manifest themselves in global energysystem; • whatkindofinterdependenciesbetweenenergysystemsofstatesandgrossraumsleador not totransferofenergyresourcesandenergytechnologiesacrosstheglobe. • GEM-10R modeltriestogiveanswers on all ofthesequestions

  4. ModelGEM-10R World energymodelasmodeledby GEM-10R consistsof: • a setofnodes– R={1,…, ru}; • a setofenergyresources(primary, secondary), final energy (heat, chemical, electrical, andmechanical) and non-energyfactors (forexample, investments)– I={1,…,iu}; • a set of polluting substances (SOx, CO2, NOx and Ash) – P={1,…,pu}; • a set of technologies working with energy, for example, energy extraction, energy conversion, energy transport etc.– J={1,…,ju}.

  5. GEM-10R (a set of nodes) World f. Soviet Union North America Europe Japan & Korea Middle East China South America South Asia Africa Australasia 10 mega-regions+ world

  6. Hierarchy of energy resources and final energies Primary energy resources:- non-renewable organic (oil, gas, coal)- nuclear (uran 235, uran 238)- renewable organic (biomass)- renewable non-organic (hydro energy, wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy,space energy) Secondary energy resources:- oil rest- gasoline- methanole- hydrogen Final energies:- chemical - electrical- mechanical- heat

  7. Set of technologies - 1 • extraction of energy resources (6types of technologies), • conversion of one type of energy resource into another type of energy resource(22 types of technologies), • import-export of energy resources from/to world energy market(18 types of technologies) and direct import-export of energy resources between regions (19 types of technologies), • generation of chemical energy(3types of technologies), • generation of electricity(30types of technologies), • generation of heat energy(8types of technologies), • generation of mechanical energy(5types of technologies), • removing of polluting substances(9 types of technologies).

  8. Set of technologies - 2 mega-region (SU, … - at all 10) Each technology j from the set J in mega-region rRin time tTis described by: • installed capacity- xtrj; • technological and ecological characteristics– atrij; • economiccharacteristics – ctrj; • minimum (btrj(min)) and maximum (btrj(max)) constraints. Technology group (Chem, Conv, Elec, … - at all 8 for mega-region) Type of technology (different number of types) Technology (5 - 8 technologies in every technology type)

  9. The ideaofthe GEM-10R Foreach region rR(and for each time period) tTexogeneous development constraints are given. For example, • needs for final energy consumption (btri); • resource constraints (btri); • financial constraints(btri); • ecological constraints (btrp). On the base of these constraints a set of scenarios is formedS={1,…,su}. For each scenario a linear programming problem is solved: to find such an global (mega-regional) energy structure (xopt) that minimizes the goal function Z. Goal function – sum of technology costs through mega-regions for functioning of the world (mega-regional) energy system.

  10. Set ofscenarios strong • „Realistic“ scenario • „Notechnologyconstraints“ scenario • „Pollution does not matter“scenario • „Ressource abundance“ scenario • „Nofinancialconstraints“ scenario • „Drop in demography“ scenario weak

  11. Mathematicsof GEM-10R Constraints Global Regional - extractions constraints for primary energy - balance equations for primary energy - balance equations for secondary energy - final energy production constraints - electricity production constraints (installedcapacityconstraints) - electricity consumption balance - pollution constraints - investments constraints - lower and upper bound constraints - global constraint for CO2 - balance constraints for import and export of primary andsecondary energy resources and investments

  12. Preliminaryresults 2010

  13. Feasiblesolutionsforthesetofscenarios strong • „Realistic“ scenario (SU, AZ, LA, ME, AF, World) • „Notechnologyconstraints“ scenario (NA) • „Pollution does not matter“scenario (CH, EU) • „Ressource abundance“ scenario (AS, JK) - ! • „Nofinancialconstraints“ scenario • „Drop in demography“ scenario weak

  14. Comparisonofresults2010(onlyformerSoviet Union) 56,149 All Energy (Production) -49,596 All Energy (Consumption)

  15. Comparisonofresults2010(all 10 mega-regions) 129,101 All Energy (Production) -42,288 All Energy (Consumption)

  16. Comparisonofresults2010(onlyformerSoviet Union vs. all 10 mega-regions) Primary EnergyProduction(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- 129,10 mln TJ/y) Primary EnergyConsumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- -42,287 mln TJ/y)

  17. Comparisonofresults2010(model vs. realityfor SU) Primary EnergyProduction(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- 129,10 mln TJ/y; BP data – 65,53 mln TJ/y) **consumption Primary EnergyConsumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- -42,287 mln TJ/y; BP data- -33,77986515 mln TJ/y) *SU = Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan(all BP data are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011)

  18. World energystructure** coal export U235 export oil, gas and U235 export oil, and gas export * Production + Consumption + Import/Export ~= 0 because of efficiency losses etc. ** Upper limit for technologies is 1095 GW of installed capacity

  19. Pollution RealityModel

  20. Conclusions • 5 mega-regions (NA, CH, EU, JK, AS) do not have a feasibleenergystructurewithouttheworld in „realistic“ scenario, so they „need“ world • Interdependenciesinfluencethe mega-regional energystructure (shown on theexampleofthe SU) • Thereissome non-coincidencebetweenthemodelresultsandthe real world -> needforimprovement

  21. ThankYouforYourattention ACNOWLEDGEMENT This research project is carried out under the financial grant of Russian Foundation for Basic Research, №10-06-00538-a(PrincipalInvestigators: Corr.-Acad. Prof. Dr. Sergey FilippovandDr. Dr. VladislavSavin)

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