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This analysis by Tim Nelson, Head of Carbon and Sustainability at AGL Energy Limited, presented at the IETA Side Event during COP 15 in December 2009, explores the relationship between Australia’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) and electricity sector dynamics. Key factors discussed include the influence of relative gas and coal prices on carbon prices, the varying estimated pass-through of carbon costs to electricity prices across different models, and the significant role of the Renewable Energy Target (RET) in driving renewable investment and future electricity pricing trends.
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AGL Energy LimitedCPRSAEU Analysis and the Electricity SectorTim NelsonHead of Carbon and Sustainability IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009
Cost of an AEU Relative gas and coal prices likely to be a key determinant of cost of reducing emissions (implied AEU price) IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009
Cost of an AEU Altering the gas/coal price spread significantly increases implied carbon price IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009
Impact of CPRS on electricity prices Estimated pass through of carbon prices varies substantially across modelling studies IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009
Prices are low but will inevitably increase Coal availability, technology and competition reforms have reduced energy prices but they will inevitably increase IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009
Impact of RET also critically important As a result of the Renewable Energy Target, renewable investment will expand significantly Source: AGL (2009) IETA Side-Event, COP 15 December 2009