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Drought Monitoring and Mitigation in the Horn of Africa Are we prepared?

Drought Monitoring and Mitigation in the Horn of Africa Are we prepared?. Z. Balint, Chief Technical Advisor P. Muchiri, Meteorologist FAO SWALIM. Somalia Water and Land Information Management System. Integrated drought management. What to do ?. Who should do it?. How to do?.

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Drought Monitoring and Mitigation in the Horn of Africa Are we prepared?

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  1. Drought Monitoring and Mitigationin the Horn of Africa Are we prepared? Z. Balint, Chief Technical Advisor P. Muchiri, Meteorologist FAO SWALIM Somalia Water and Land Information Management System

  2. Integrated drought management What to do ? Who should do it? How to do? Natural phenomena Can we manage drought? Impacts of drought Mitigating the impacts of drought WHAT can we use? Tools, measures, facilities HOW can we use? Response systems, Preparedness

  3. WHAT? HOW? • Drought resistant crops • Irrigation • Storage systems • Market systems • etc. • Long term plans for • sustainable production • Short term plans for • adaptation • Rapid response plans for • mitigating the impacts Long term trends MONITORING Real-time drought evolution Early warning Impacts

  4. Why monitor drought? Proper diagnosis is needed for proper response Food shortage caused by drought or env. degradation SOLUTION (example) Based on Measurements & analysis LONG TERM SHORT TERM Relatively easy to mobilise • Proper identification: • Env. Degradation • export charcoal prod • plant degradation • soil erosion “DROUGHT” FUNDS Food distribution Local market price down More difficult to get Altern. income generation Land conservation Land use planning Farm development Production stops (incl. seeds) Skills degrade SHORT + LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY OF FOOD DEPENDENCY

  5. Drought is a frequent, recurrent event in the Horn of Africa. - Despite its frequency it always seems to be a surprise, causing an emergency. Are we prepared? Do we have the common understanding of drought? Do we know what to observe and do we have the equipment for that? Do we have monitoring systems? Do we have methodologies how to interpret the observations? Do we have the pre-set mechanisms, the standard procedures how to react in a real emergency situation? Do we know the measures, tools, how to mitigate the impacts of drought? Do we have long term visions how to adapt the production system to show more resilience to drought? There is a long way to go. We can start with better understanding the drought and join our efforts in developing methodologies for monitoring, forecasting and mitigating its impacts.

  6. Whatis drought? wrong crop type disease disease Crop failure Animals die hail, cold rain drought overgrazing Population growth drought Armed conflicts Food shortage market problems Market problems Malnutrition grows armed conflicts drought drought Treatment is much different Drought – short term (end foreseen) – temporary deviation Land degradation – long term - difficult to reverse

  7. Whatis drought? Drought is an extended period, during which, fresh water availability and accessibility for the ecosystem at a given time and place is below normal, due to unfavourable spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, temperature, soil moisture and wind characteristics. Serious anomaly - Long duration

  8. Drought factors in a given region are: • Rainfall amount • Rainfall temporal distribution • Soil moisture • Soil moisture temporal distribution • Temperature • Temperature temporal distribution • Wind characteristics

  9. How to measure the severity of drought? Drought indices analysed • Physical indices (water balance) • Palmer’s Drought indices, namely, Palmer Drought Severity Index ( PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index(PHDI), Palmer Z-index (PZI) and Crop Moisture Index (CMI) • Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) • Reclamation Drought Index (RDI) • Statistical indexes (time series analysis) • Percent Normal Drought Index (PNDI) • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) • Precipitation Decile Index • Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP)

  10. Multiple parameter precipitation temperature soil moisture wind Combined effect

  11. The SWALIM Combined Drought Index (CDI) Step 1: Three different, individual drought indices are calculated, each reflecting the quantity deviation from LTM and the persistence of the deviation Step 2: The combined effect is calculated in the CDI It is an index that measures how much the present conditions deviate from the reference level, which is the multi-year long-term average for a selected time duration (X dekads, Y months).

  12. Precipitation drought index Temperature drought index Vegetation drought index For more information please consult the CDI brochure and the attached CDI calculator CD

  13. Kenyan stations

  14. Debrecen – Hungary, Europe

  15. CDI trends and comparison with drought reports

  16. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS ON CDI The CDI reflects: rainfall amount deficit and its critical duration air temperature excess and its critical duration NDVI deficit and its critical duration It provides a time series of the indices that can be further analysed with statistical methods • Further research is suggested on • Howe to use it for short time early warning • How to extent it from point data series to spatial analysis

  17. Thank you for your attention Somalia Water and Land Information Management System

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