Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation

1. Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL

2. drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard. • drought frequency and severity increasing as a result of climate change

3. drought definition • “significant deficiency of precipitation from "normal" over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector” • drought should not be confused with aridity, water scarcity and stress, desertification, water shortage, etc.

4. Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies) Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts Hydrological Meteorological Agricultural Socio-economic Time/Duration of the event

5. passive management of drought as a Crisis Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln-Nebraska, USA

6. crisis management implications • reactive, post-impact, drought has taken its toll • response: costly, untimely, poorly targeted, poorly coordinated, ineffective • decreases self-reliance, promotes dependence on government and donors, … greater vulnerability Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability (natural) (social)

7. drought risk management • pro-active, less damages for same drought level • response: less costly, timely, targeted/equitable, effective • resilience/self-reliance increase, sustainability

8. drought preparedness plan • set of measures and actions to be taken before, during and after drought with the objective of mitigating impacts and conflicts arising from drought • the plan of action is prepared before drought occurs • the measures and actions are taken by government, farmers, herders, fishermen, individual citizens, industry and others, • The measure concern priority, key sectors of the economy that are directly affected by drought (water resources, crop production, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, etc.)

9. cycle of disaster management

10. Components of Drought Risk Analysis Hazard Risk Vulnerability = x (natural event) (social factors) A New Paradigm for Drought Management

11. components of a drought preparedness plan • Monitoring/early warning • Foundation of a drought mitigation plan • Indices linked to impacts and triggers • 2. Risk and impact assessment • Who and what is at risk and why • 3. Mitigation and response (risk management) • Actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recovery

12. 1. Monitoring and Early Warning Monitoring and early warning committee A. Establish drought management areas B. Inventory data quantity, quality from current observation networks C. Determine data needs of primary users D. Develop a drought monitoring system F. Develop or modify current data and information delivery systems

13. 2. Risk and Impact Assessment Risk and impact assessment Committee Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options (actions/activities to do for eliminating or reducing risk) Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options (based on criteria agreed to)

14. Drought Task Force Policy Direction Policy Direction Situation Reports Assessment Reports Assessment Reports Monitoring Committee Risk Assessment Committee Situation Reports Drought Plan Organizational Structure Working Groups

15. Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts H=Historical C=Current P=Potential Economic H C P • Costs and losses to agricultural producers • Annual and perennial crop losses • Damage to crop quality • Income loss for farmers due to reduced crop yields • Reduced productivity of cropland • Insect infestation • Plant disease • Wildlife damage to crops • Increased irrigation costs • Cost of new or supplemental water resources

16. Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts H=Historical C=Current P=Potential Environmental H C P • Hydrological effects • Lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and ponds • Reduced flow from springs • Reduced streamflow • Loss of wetlands • Estuarine impacts • Increased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced recharge • Water quality effects

17. Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts H=Historical C=Current P=Potential Social Impacts H C P • Health • Mental and physical stress • Health-related low-flow problems • Reductions in nutrition • Loss of human life • Public safety from forest and range fires • Increased respiratory ailments • Increased disease caused by wildlife concentrations

18. Impacts Actions Triggers Agencies Identify and prioritize What can be done? Indices or indicators Who is responsible?

19. 3-DimensionalMeasures/Actions e.g. Water Resources impact minimization supply increase demand reduction category Approach sector long-term Urban Agricultural Short-term Proactive Industrial Emergency Recreative Reactive Adapted from Rossi (2000)

20. Implementing a Drought Plan - Legislation may be required for implementation - Implementing agencies to includes activities of their concern into their work plans and budgets - additional funds may be required to secure implementation by relevant agencies - task force to monitor implementation through periodical reports; periodic evaluation - Periodic updating of the plan may be necessary - Final evaluation and review of the plan for the following season

21. Key Messages • Political will is the foundation of drought policy innovation • Integrated drought/climate monitoring is key to early warning, in parallel with a comprehensive decision support system • Drought planning, fully integrated with stakeholder participation, is critical to moving society from drought vulnerability to drought resilience • Drought planning must be integrated across spatial scales • Drought policy ‘guidelines’ are critical for adaptation to local situations, e.g., institutional capacity, sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, resource constraints.

22. Thank you Merci