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Drought Impacts

Drought Impacts. Power Production for Boulder Canyon Project & Parker-Davis Project. Impacts To Date. Future Drought Impacts Boulder Canyon Project. How Is Hoover Generation Impacted If Drought Continues?. Reduced Head as Lake Mead Storage Decreases

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Drought Impacts

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  1. Drought Impacts Power Production for Boulder Canyon Project & Parker-Davis Project

  2. Impacts To Date

  3. Future Drought Impacts Boulder Canyon Project

  4. How Is Hoover Generation Impacted If Drought Continues? • Reduced Head as Lake Mead Storage Decreases • Lake Mead Level Drops 10-15 ft. per year with min. objective release (8.23 MAF) from Powell • Reduced Water Releases When Shortages are Implemented • No Physical Restrictions But Turbine Output Decreases With Lower Elevation & Water Releases

  5. Hoover Key Elevations

  6. Turbine Operation • Design Head for Turbine Equates to About 1160 ft. Elevation • Turbines Probably Able to Operate Below 1050 ft. (Minimum Power Pool) at Greatly Reduced Output • Increased Cavitation & Maintenance at Lower Elevations. More Operational Limitations.

  7. How Far Can Lake Mead Elevation Drop? • Shortage Protection Criteria Determine the Elevation(s) at Which Water Deliveries are Reduced • No Shortage Protection Criteria Adopted by Reclamation - Basin States Discussing Alternatives • Absolute Floor Probably 1000 ft. (Nevada Intakes)

  8. Mitigation Measures • Turbine Replacements • Stainless Steel Wicket Gates • Involvement In Shortage Protection Criteria/Basin States Discussions • Operation of Desalter or Other Bypass Alternatives & Reducing Over-Deliveries to Mexico

  9. Turbine Replacements • Increased Capacity (10-15%) • Small Increase In Efficiency & Energy • Reduced O&M Costs/Operational Limitations • Cost Approximately $1.3M per Turbine • Cost Effectiveness • Quick Payback at Lower Elevations • USBR Doing Preliminary Evaluation • Replacements Done in Increments

  10. Stainless Steel Wicket Gates • Increased Capacity (5%) • Small Increase In Efficiency & Energy • Reduced O&M Costs • Cost Approximately $1.0M per Turbine • Cost Effectiveness • Quick Payback; Not Dependent Upon Elevation • USBR Doing Preliminary Evaluation • Replacements Done in Increments

  11. Shortage Protection Criteria • Shortage Protection at Higher Elevations Equates to Higher Capacity & Energy • Same Amounts of Water is Delivered in Long Run • Storage Between 1000’ & 1050’ = 3 MAF

  12. 1100 ft. vs. 1050 ft. Avg Capacity = 1573 MW vs 1409 MW (11.6% Diff) Avg Energy = 3392 GWH vs 3174 MW (6.9% Diff) Same Total Water Deliveries

  13. Other Measures • Reducing Bypass Flows to Mexico (Desalter or Fallowing) • Additional Storage in Yuma Area Would Reduce Over-Deliveries to Mexico • Combined Maximum Reduction in Releases Would be 200 KAF or Less

  14. Future Impacts Parker-Davis Project

  15. Impacts on Parker-Davis Generation • No Change in Lake Mohave & Lake Havasu Target Elevations • Therefore Head is Not Affected at Parker & Davis Dams and Generation Varies Only With Water Releases • Lake Mead Elevation Below 1125 ft. Results in Normal Water Year Releases • In Normal Water Years P-D Generates About Current Contract Levels of 1346 GWh (Slightly Less Than FY03)

  16. Impacts on Parker-Davis Generation(Cont.) • In Shortage Years Davis Generation Is Reduced Almost Proportionally to Water Reductions • Parker Generation Should Be Unaffected Since Most or All Reductions are Above Parker • Davis Generation About 80%, Parker Generation About 20 % of Parker-Davis Generation • Example: 10% Reduction In Water Deliveries = 8% Reduction In Parker-Davis Generation

  17. Probable Future Hoover & Parker-Davis Generation

  18. Recent Generation Studies Boulder Canyon Project Through 2017 • Average Capacity = 1637 MW • Average Energy = 3889 MWh (No Modifications to Units)

  19. Recent Generation Studies Parker-Davis Generation Through 2028 • Average Energy = Approx. 1380 GWh (Reviewing Numbers)

  20. Mead Filling • Requires Average or Greater Colorado River Basin Runoff • Lake Powell Fills First Until Volume Greater Than Lake Mead (Equalization) • Possible to Completely Refill in Few Years But Requires Very Unusual Runoff (Similar to Early 80’s)

  21. Probable Future GenerationSummary • BCP Generation Between 3600 GWh and 4100 GWh Most Years • P-D Generation Near Current Contract Energy of 1346 GWh Most Years • Lake Mead Must Fill Above Elevation 1145 ft. for Generation Significantly Above These Values • Generation Would be Significantly Below These Values Only in Water Shortage Years

  22. For Additional Information Contact: Brian Young byoung@wapa.gov or 602-352-2594

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