GREX APPLES & PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels

1. GREX APPLES & PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels

2. Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts 2008

3. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Argentina Apples

4. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Argentina Pears

5. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Argentina Notes on 2008 season: • Though the current season is not so mild, it foresees good quality standards. • The control programs against codling moths are increasing and consolidating as an effective technique against the disease. • Pear harvest started 21 January with 1 week delay because social conflicts with fruit pickers. Apple harvest started 28 January. • Late rains and delayed picking have affected the forecasted crop downwards by approximately 3%.

6. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Apples Australia

7. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Pears Australia

8. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Australia Notes on 2008 season: • Seasonal conditions have been much more favourable for the 2008 crop, quality and size of all varieties should be better than 2007. • Growing conditions have been milder with more rainfall in most areas supporting excellent fruit quality in 2008. • There have also been some rationalisation of plantings in some areas, most notably the removal of Williams pears in the Goulburn Valley.

9. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Apples Brazil

10. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Brazil Notes on 2008 season: • Winter was one of the best of the last 10 years. • This season has been marked so far by local heavy rains during the blooming, all regions were not affected the same way, a reduction of 10% compared to last year is estimated. • Blossom was concentrated. • Quality is considered good and size above average. Colour is considered very good. • Hail hasn’t been a major preoccupation so far. Regularity of rain during the season has been good. No extreme temperatures so far. • Picking has started week 5 and on week 6 all growers are full speed, one week earlier than estimated. • Effect of this advance on crop estimate?

11. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Apples

12. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Notes on 2008 Season • Expected uplift in the exports of apples in regards to the previous season 6 – 8 % uplift • Galas, Fujis and red delicious expected to grow the most • In general the size of the fruit seems to be normal however given the high temperatures in December and January, the size could be affected. • The incidence of sun spots could also occur, at the same level as last year. • Higher incidence of apples being diverted to local agro – industry and processing given increase in local market prices. • The production of apples in general may be a week later than last season. • Slow movement seen on the European market so far – whilst local European stock is up by 5% this season. Need for caution. • Importers turning toward Eastern Europe in bid to alleviate the market, given lower production and stock levels in this region.

13. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Pears

14. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Notes on 2008 Season • Expected normal season for pears • Slight uplift in terms of volumes (3 – 4%) • Main varieties to register increases in export volumes are Forelle and Coscia, and to a lesser degree Abate Fatel and Beurre Bosc. • Green varieties will most probably be more evenly distributed in terms of sizes, in regards to last season • Harvest of pear varieties (Coscia) expected to be 1 week later compared to last season.

15. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Apples New Zealand

16. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Pears New Zealand

17. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts New Zealand Notes on 2008 season: • Notable trend for NZ is a reduction in Braeburn and an increase in Jazz. • Spring frosts in Hawkes Bay have reduced the NZ crop 18,000 tonnes less than 2007. Most affected variety is Braeburn. • Size is similar to 2007 • Harvest looks to be up to one week later than 2007 • The NZ dollar is as strong against the US$ as last year. It is likely that exporters will look to Europe and Asia where possible for markets.

18. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Apples South Africa

19. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Pears South Africa

20. Southern hemisphere crop forecasts South Africa Notes on 2008 season: • Decreasing trend in Granny and Golden hectares seem to have stabilised. • Decreasing trend in total hectares for both apples and pears expected to stop during 2008 and possible increases over the next 3-5 years. • Forelle exports expected to grow for at least next 5-8 years (due to increase in hectares). • Experienced very good winter – adequate cold units and enough water • Flood damage to Langkloof production area, but this will not have a severe impact on total production. • Producers have been made aware of possibility of smaller fruit. • Exchange rate favourable for exports at the moment (hopefully it will stay stable throughout the season). • Sharp increase in input costs, especially transport (road and shipping) as well as direct production costs. • Season approximately 10-14 days late

21. Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts Consolidated figures – total production Apples Pears

22. Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts Consolidated figures – export production Apples Pears

23. Southern Hemisphere exports

24. International apples and pears marketsExchange rates - € vs $

25. International apples and pears marketsExchange rates – SH currencies

26. Southern Hemisphere exportsApples

27. EU License monitoring systemComparison with SHAFFE data (w 41)