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TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010

TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010. Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto prabhat.jha@utoronto.ca Release: Lancet, May 24, 2011 Sources of support: NIH (US); CIHR, IDRC & LKSKI (Canada). CGHR.ORG/GIRLS

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TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010

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  1. TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010 Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto prabhat.jha@utoronto.ca Release: Lancet, May 24, 2011 Sources of support: NIH (US); CIHR, IDRC & LKSKI (Canada) CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  2. Conclusions • Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades • Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households • 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010 • About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) • About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s • About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s • Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter • Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India

  3. What’s new about this research? • First study documenting recent trends in conditional sex ratios, over 15 years, from 1990 to 2005 • Estimates of the number of selective abortions of girls over the last 3 decades

  4. How as the study done? • Trends in “conditional” sex ratios: • Girls or boys don’t “run” in families: the chances of a second girl or boy do not depend on the gender of firstborns • We studied conditional sex ratios and compared against the West • Used 3 rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - a large, national survey which resembles the whole of India: NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3 CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  5. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  6. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education No education 10 or more years of education (matric) *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  7. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys. CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  8. 4-12 million (M) girls aborted over the last 3 decades Number of aborted girls calculated over last 3 decades using the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census of India. Census 1991 Census 2001 Census 2011 1980-2010 totals: 4 to 12 M aborted girls 0 to 2.0 M aborted girls 1.2 to 4.1 M aborted girls 3.1 to 6.0 M aborted girls CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  9. Child sex ratio of girls to boys at ages 0-6 in 2001 and 2011 for the districts of India CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  10. District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011 • More than double the number of Indian districts (n=405) showed decreasing sex ratios, compared to those showing no change or an improvement (n=158) • Every 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implies 1.2 to 3.6 million more selective abortions of girls CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  11. Distribution of Indian population living in states with varying child sex ratios 90% of Indians now live in states where the sex ratio is abnormal (i.e. below a natural level of 950-975 females for every 1000 boys) CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  12. Conclusions • Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades • Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households • 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010 • About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) • About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s • About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s • Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter • Selective abortion of girls is now common all over India CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  13. www.cghr.org/girls Twitter: @CGHR_org • Article • Web appendix • Press release (English and Hindi) • - Video press release • FAQs • PowerPoint slides • District-level child sex ratios in 2001 and 2011 in excel format CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  14. District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011 CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  15. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl • Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, has fallen during the period of 1990-2005, compared with no change if the firstborn was a boy • This conditional sex ratio fell from 906 in 1990 to 836 in 2005 (natural sex ratio is between 950-975) • INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased over the last two decades CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  16. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education • - Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower in families where mother had 10 years or more of education, compared to those with no education • The gap in selective abortion of girls increased over time between these two groups; conditional sex ratios fell for the most educated, but saw no change for those with no education • INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased the most in educated households CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

  17. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth • - Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower for the richest 20% of households, compared to the poorest 20% • This gap widened between 1990-2005; conditional sex ratios fell for the richest 20% of households • INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased most for the richest 20% of households CGHR.ORG/GIRLS Twitter: @CGHR_org

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