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Enhancing Meningitis Vaccine Distribution via Weather Forecasting in Africa

The Google African Meningitis Project aims to support the World Health Organization and regional countries by providing crucial weather forecast data for effective vaccine distribution. Funded by Google's non-profit wing, the project spans from 2009 to 2012 with a total budget of $1.2 million. It leverages Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensembles to improve medium-range disease forecasting, focusing on the relationship between relative humidity and the risk of meningitis outbreaks. This initiative helps pre-position vaccines in anticipation of epidemics, ultimately reducing the disease's impact on public health.

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Enhancing Meningitis Vaccine Distribution via Weather Forecasting in Africa

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  1. Project title:Google African Meningitis Project • Goal:Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making. • Sponsor: Google non-profit wing • Current and Anticipated Funding • Calendar Year 2009: $230K • Calendar Year 2010: $230K • Calendar Year 2011 $230K • Calendar Year 2012: $210K • Participants: • RAL: T. Hopson, M. Hayden, Arnaud Dumont, MukulTewari, Raj Pandya (UCAR), Tom Yoksas (UNIDATA) • New Opportunities • Utilization of Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensemble; medium-range disease forecasting

  2. Significant Accomplishments to Date -- context and weather linkages • Meningitis endemic in Africa • Sporadic large epidemics (1996-1997:, 250,000 cases) • 5-10% fatality rate • 10-20% of survivors have permanent impacts: hearing loss, brain damage, learning disabilities • Vaccine in very limited supply • Risk = f(Relative Humidity) • We can forecast RH & vaccines can be pre-positioned for maximum effectiveness • Weekly telecons with WHO, Chad, Nigeria, Togo, Benin on 2-week epidemic outlook High Epidemic Risk when Dry Low Risk when Wet National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

  3. Significant Accomplishments to Date -- context and weather linkages Relative humidity across the Meningitis Belt forecast 1 week in advance … Within dashed region, risk has doubled (above background levels) … converted to probability of an epidemic alert occurring across the Belt 3 weeks in advance National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

  4. Capabilities Demonstrated-- weekly WHO telecons (today) • Determined weather variables impacting meningitis incidence (RH) • Employing Thorpex-Tigge ensemble operationally • Providing weekly telecon 1- and 2-wk ahead forecast updates on meningitis belt status to WHO/countries Comparison with 2011 for the same week … … and the climatological state for the same week Today’s telecon 2-week ahead RH forecast (epidemiological week 17) for the ECMWF ensemble mean

  5. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System

  6. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  7. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  8. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  9. Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps Climatology of West Africa SH SHL January July World Survey of Climatology, 1972

  10. Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps

  11. Unique Datasets/Software Created Thorpex-Tigge UKMO CMC CMA ECMWF MeteoFrance NCAR NCEP JMA KMA NCDC IDD/LDM HTTP FTP Archive Centre CPTEC BoM Current Data Provider Unidata IDD/LDM Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager Commodity internet application to send and receive data

  12. Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers

  13. Unique Datasets/Software Created Thorpex-Tigge -- fields

  14. Additional science … quantile regression Our application Fitting T quantiles using QR conditioned on: Ranked forecast ens ensemble mean ensemble median 4) ensemble stdev 5) Persistence

  15. Space-Time Continuum: Where are you? Mark with an X where your projects are now and where you anticipate being in the future 107 m 105 m X Spatial Scale 103 m 101 m min decade to century hour day season Time Scale

  16. Project title:Assessing the ensemble spread-error relationship

  17. a) b) c) d) e) f) h) g)

  18. b) a) c) d) f) e)

  19. b) a) c) d) f) e)

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