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USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011

The USDA Cotton Outlook for 2011/12 James Johnson Foreign Agricultural Service United States Department of Agriculture. USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011. Global Outlook. World Production Exceeds Consumption, as Prices Decline .

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USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011

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  1. The USDA Cotton Outlookfor 2011/12James JohnsonForeign Agricultural ServiceUnited States Department of Agriculture USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Interagency Cotton Estimates Committee February 25, 2011

  2. Global Outlook

  3. World Production Exceeds Consumption, as Prices Decline

  4. World Production Up Nearly 12% in 2011/12 Rising cotton prices combined with a return to normal weather will raise production more than 12 million bales. Production higher in all major cotton-producing countries. Over half of the increase accounted for by China and India.

  5. Production Higher in All Major Producers(Percent increase 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 ) 13.3 % 9.6 % 6.5 % 10.8 % 12.2 % 12.5 % 14.3 %

  6. World Consumption Climbs

  7. Economic Growth Indicates Higher Consumption Cotton GDP

  8. A-Index Reaches Unprecedented Levels

  9. Cotton-to-Synthetic Price Ratio Rises Ratio of Cotlook A-Index to PCI World Synthetic Fiber Index Aug-Dec.

  10. Continued Low Stocks-to-Consumption RatioHighlights Tight Stock Situation

  11. U.S. Outlook

  12. 2011/12 U.S. Supply and Demand, (mil. bales)

  13. Projected U.S. Area and Production Up • A 19-percent increase in acres planted to 13 million. • With average abandonment of 11 percent, harvested acres would be 11.5 million. • Average yield per harvested acre of 810 lbs. • Production is forecast at 19.5 million bales.

  14. Higher Abandonment Rate Expected

  15. U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Remains Below World

  16. Are Cotton Prices That High?

  17. Thank You

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