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Energy

Energy. World energy consumption projected to rise 53% from 2008 to 2035 Greatest projected increase in non-OECD countries (85% vs. 18% in OECD countries) What is the OECD ?. US EIA. US EIA. Energy. Energy use in non-OECD Asia (incl. India & China) to more than double by 2035. Energy

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Energy

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  1. Energy • World energy consumption projected to rise 53% from 2008 to 2035 • Greatest projected increase in non-OECD countries (85% vs. 18% in OECD countries) • What is the OECD? US EIA

  2. US EIA Energy • Energy use in non-OECD Asia (incl. India & China) to more than double by 2035

  3. Energy • Conventional • Fossil Fuels • Oil • Transportation, electricity generation, heating • World’s dominant source of energy for past several decades • Expected to remain important for next 20 years - Predicted change: 3429% of total energy consumption through 2035 • Greatest consumption by OECD nations, but gap closing • 1999 – Non-OECD nations consumed 58% as much as OECD nations • 2030 – Projected to use ~90% as much • Most of increase from transportation sector (few alternative fuel sources)

  4. Energy • Conventional • Fossil Fuels • Oil • Benefits • Readily available • High energy density • Inexpensive • Existing technology & infrastructure • Concerns • Combustion releases pollutants (CO2, NOx, SOx, PM) • Extraction harms environment • Accidental releases, especially in ocean • Energy security – US imports 60% of oil • Long-term availability (unconventional sources)

  5. Unconventional Sources • Oil sands • Extra-heavy oil • Coal-to-liquids • Gas-to-liquids • Shale oil • Biofuels US EIA

  6. Energy • Conventional • Fossil Fuels • Coal • Electricity generation (60% of global coal use, 2008) • Main fuel source in China for industry • Use expected to grow, mostly fueled by Asia, especially China (78% of global growth) and India • Benefits • Inexpensive • Abundant, easy to recover • Requires minimal processing • Existing technology & infrastructure • Concerns • Environmental degradation from mining • Requires extensive transportation system (rail) • Combustion  pollutants (CO2, PM, Hg, NOx, SOx) • Counter: “Clean coal” (requires more processing)

  7. US EIA

  8. Energy • Conventional • Fossil Fuels • Natural gas (methane) • Use predicted to grow almost as fast as coal • Equaled coal (BTU basis) in 1999 • Increase fueled by price, environmental concerns, energy security issues, market deregulation • Benefits • Inexpensive • Abundant, easy to recover • Existing technology & infrastructure • Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no solid waste • High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity) • Energy security – US produces 85% of demand vs. 40% for oil • Concerns • Greenhouse gas • Adequate long-term supply

  9. Energy • Conventional • Fossil Fuels • Gas (methane) hydrates • Worldwide reserves estimated at up to 100,000 trillion cubic feet of gas (10,000 Gt carbon), twice the carbon in all other fossil fuel reserves on earth • Located beneath marine sediments at 300-500 m depth • Common off SE US, Siberia, Alaska • Benefits • Extremely abundant • Existing infrastructure for distribution • Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no solid waste • High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity) • Energy security – US has extensive reserves • Concerns • Greenhouse gas • Damage to sea floor • Catastrophic effects of massive release

  10. Energy • Conventional • Nuclear • Derived from splitting ("fissioning“) of uranium atoms • Uranium mined, processed to increase fissionable material, made into fuel rods • Uranium atoms split inside reactor, generate heat  steam  electricity • World capacity projected to rise from 379 GW in 2007 to 592 GW in 2035 • Highest growth projected for developing world, especially Asia • Benefits • Clean (few pollutants or GHGs) • Relatively inexpensive • Existing technology & infrastructure • Compact fuel & waste (high energy density – 1 lb of U = 3.5 million lbs of coal) • Energy security – US has extensive reserves • Concerns • Safety – Possibility of accidents • Strategic risks – Material stolen and used to create weapon • Waste disposal – Contamination of ground water, soil, animals, plants, people • GHG production from mining & transportation of uranium

  11. US EIA

  12. US EIA

  13. Energy • Renewable • Sources either can’t be used up or are replenished quickly through natural processes • In CA, eligible renewable energy sources include • Biomass and waste • Geothermal • Solar • Small hydroelectric • Wind energy • Use for electricity generation expected to increase by 128.5% (3%/year) worldwide between 2007 and 2035 • 18% of total electricity generation in 2007  23% in 2035 • Growth in renewable energy resources expected to be constrained by moderate fossil fuel prices • Renewable energy development expected to be increases in hydroelectric (54%), esp. in non-OECD Asia & Brazil, and wind (26%), esp. in China

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