1 / 27

OECD International Futures Programme

OECD International Futures Programme. Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions. Post-Conference Workshop Washington DC, January 29, 2003. Riel Miller.

castillok
Télécharger la présentation

OECD International Futures Programme

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. OECD International Futures Programme Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions Post-Conference Workshop Washington DC, January 29, 2003 Riel Miller

  2. “All the bad predictions have the same buried assumption – the future will be just like the present but better. But the future is not like the past.”William Wulf, Jan. 28, 2003

  3. Pushing the premises • Continuity versus transition: • Could incremental radical change, facilitated by IT and other new tools, transform OECD societies over the next thirty years? • Trends versus possibilities: • Can we begin to rigorously imagine disjuncture in ways that point to how policy needs to break with the past?

  4. Presentation outline A.21st Century Transitions: Possibility map example B. Implications for policy & research

  5. Technology Economy Society Governance A. 21st Century Transitions:A possibility map example • Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life • Within one or two generations • Disrupts most institutions • Alters culture & values

  6. Technology possibility space Technological dynamism • Pervasive tools • Part of daily life • Tools simplify & enable complexity • Don’t think of the tool, think of its use • Contingent on socio-economic change “Technology is not destiny”

  7. Technology possibility space Simple “Solid MP3” printer Ease of use Prototype printer Difficult Limited & homogeneous Unlimited & heterogeneous Range of uses

  8. Economic dynamism Economic possibility space • Nature of production & consumption • Organisational attributes of wealth creation • Predominant type of economic activity “Beyond mass-production and consumption”

  9. A learning economy & society Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator Fusing of supply & demand Unpredictable tasks - creativity Empowered team-worker, informed shopper Mass-era worker and consumer Predictable tasks - repetition Freedom to initiate Imposed Authority

  10. Social dynamism Social possibility space • Attributes of identity: • sources • structure • dynamics • Patterns of social status • Ecology of culture

  11. Identity & choice Hetero-geneous/small Learning society Scale of social affiliation /identity Homo-geneous /large Mass-era Less choice Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how More choice Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective

  12. Governance possibility space Dynamic Governance Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity • Distribution of power • Primary organisational forms • Resilience (risk handling & perception) • Pace of decision making • Extent to which best information is used • Networking capacity - right balance between homogeneity & heterogeneity

  13. Capacity to make & implement decisions

  14. Before and after • Wealth, rules, governance, values • Physical/financial vs human capital • Simple vs complex property rights • Ex-ante vs real-time allocation of power • Implementation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights • Quality of life • Mass production vs production for self/community • Life organized for work vs work organized for life • Hierarchy vs autonomy • Imposed identity vs self-generated identity • Sen’s definition of “freedom”

  15. B. Implications of possibility space analysis for public policy • Allows visioning radical changes • Offers systemic perspective • Emphasizes synergies & the contingent nature of large scale/long-run change • Focuses policy intervention • Poses clearer options • Allows for multiple paths to similar outcome

  16. Are we in a period of transition or consolidation? • Negative indicators of transition: • Extreme polarization • Authority gaps • Institutional decay • Identity crises • Positive indicators of transition: • New spaces for innovation to succeed • New networks become sustainable • Potential greater than actual • Does consolidation seem to be a feasible strategy?

  17. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for policy • Goals - encouraging transition • Creativity & greater capacity to govern • Common values & heterogeneity of expression • Roles - facilitating re-composition • Proliferation of sources • Diffusion of the peripheral • Methods - linking form & function • Experimentalism • Learning by doing (means as ends, process as product)

  18. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for policy Policies that do not work: • Doing no harm - dot.com aftermath • Ignoring the value of the commons • Protecting old business models • Not establishing level playing fields • Abdicating new governance challenges

  19. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for research • Goals - explore transition • Rigorous assessment of plausible, not just probable • Explore synergy & dissonance; positive & negative role of conflict/cooperation, divergence/convergence • Role - expand and sharpen debate on possible, probable & desirable long-run futures • Methods - history of the future & cross-discipline analysis • Involve a wider range of views & experiments • Systematically comb the periphery for seeds of tomorrow’s diversity

  20. Governance Technology Economy Society Thank youwww.oecd.org/futuresriel.miller@oecd.org Money

  21. Cross-cutting guidelines for promoting 21st Century Transitions • Areas for new rules, standards & conventions: • Validation & recognition of property & assets • Building trust & common languages • Metrics, benchmarks • Encourage quality of opportunity by focusing on: • Focus on assets - human & social capital • Leading & lagging edges - dynamic gaps • Inclusion through diversification

  22. Making the future a discipline • How is it that each morning when we wake up the world around us restarts, functioning – at least most of the time – much as it did the day before? • What are the plausible ways that daily life might be reproduced in the future? “history of the future”

  23. Five axioms • Axiom 1 • uncertainty increases with time • Axiom 2 • change is both absolute and relative • Axiom 3 • over time metrics and benchmarks change • Axiom 4 • change depends on capacity, capacity changes over time • Axiom 5 • imagination grounded in explicit assumptions

  24. “Hubris of the now” • Slow vs fast • Incremental vs radical • Voluntary vs involuntary • Preservationism vs dynamism

More Related