Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain and Ireland The MONARCH Project

1. Climate ChangeandNature Conservation inBritain and IrelandThe MONARCH Project

2. MONARCH FUNDERS • English Nature • Countryside Council for Wales • Environment Agency • Environment and Heritage Service (Northern Ireland) • Forestry Commission • Joint Nature Conservation Committee • National Parks and Wildlife (Republic of Ireland) • National Trust • Royal Society for the Protection Birds • Scottish Executive • Scottish Natural Heritage • UK Climate Impacts Programme • Welsh Assembly • Woodland Trust

3. MONARCH RESEARCH PARTNERS • Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford • ADAS • British Trust for Ornithology • CABI Bioscience

4. Defining zones of climatic similarity Cluster analysis (on 7 bio-climatic factors) 21 clusters

5. Changes in mean annual temperature

6. Habitat and species selection • Selected habitats: • Drought-prone acid grassland • Lowland calcareous grassland • Upland hay meadows • Tall herb ledge communities • Beech woodland • Upland oak woodland • Montane heath • Wet heath • Raised bog • Blanket bog • Coastal saltmarsh • Coastal dune slacks • Species selection protocol: • Primarily plant species, but few higher order species • Dominant and/or structurally important • Sensitive to climate change • Priority (BAP) species

7. Change in Britain and Ireland species’ distributions Training: Current European species’ distributions Terrestrial environments Schematic of the SPECIES model MONARCH project

8. SPECIES model: Results for current climate (1961-90) Willow tit Observed distribution Simulated distribution

9. SPECIES model: Results for current climate (1961-90) Willow tit Observed distribution Simulated distributions

10. SPECIES model: Results for future climate Willow tit 2020 low scenario 2050 high scenario 2020 high scenario

11. Fagus sylvatica (Beech) a) b) • 2020s Low • 2020s High • 2050s Low • 2050s High d) c)

12. (a) Large heath Coenonympha tullia (a) (b) (c) • Simulated distribution • 2020s Low • 2020s High • 2050s Low • 2050s High (d) (e)

13. Summary of habitat/species vulnerability Terrestrial and freshwater species: • Species with northerly distributions generally contract (e.g. mountain ringlet butterfly, capercaillie, globe flower) • Species with southern distributions generally expand (e.g. great burnet, sea purslane, reed warbler) Terrestrial and freshwater habitats: • Montane heath (all species lose suitable climate space) • Upland hay meadows, upland oak woodland, beech woodland and pine woodland (changed species composition as several species or dominants lose climate space) • Blanket/raised bogs, coastal dune slacks and salt marsh (mixed response) • Wet heath and lowland calcareous grassland (low sensitivity)

14. MONARCH 2Research Objectives Module 1 • To develop models to define potential species’ distributions at a local scale (eg NNR, Natural Area, National Park) • To develop models of species’ dispersal capabilities and integrate with potential changes in distributions • To integrate above models with predictions for future land use/land cover changes • To consider implications of species dispersal and redistribution for functioning of ecosystems Module 2 • To apply above methodologies to four case study areas selected from participating countries.

15. SHORT-TERM ACTIONS • Raise awareness of the significance of climate change for biodiversity • Promote the need to accommodate climate change impacts into the Biodiversity Action Plan process and the development of conservation objectives • Provide advice and guidance to help develop more flexible approaches to conservation management • Press for regulatory and policy changes which will allow the effects of climate change to be adequately reflected in statutory commitments • Seek an increase in the level of support for species and habitat management under agri-environment schemes