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Real Client Managed Portfolio

This presentation provides an analysis of Diamond Offshore in the portfolio, including a macro-economic review, stock market prospects, financial analysis, projections, and application of financial tools. Recommendations for the company are also provided.

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Real Client Managed Portfolio

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  1. Real Client Managed Portfolio Diamond Offshore (DO) October 25, 2012 Presented By: Eric Hoffman Patrick O’Donnell Xiaohua (Leah) Xu

  2. Agenda • Diamond Offshore in the Portfolio • Macro-Economic Review • Stock Market Prospects • Diamond Offshore (the Business) • Financial Analysis • Financial Projections • Application of Financial Tools • Recommendation

  3. Diamond Offshore In the Portfolio February 2008 • Purchased 100 shares @ $122.90 for a total cost of $12,290 • Give portfolio exposure to oil and drilling sector November 2008 • Purchased 50 shares @ $72.96 for a total cost of $3,648 September 2009 • Written call option exercised, sold 100 shares at adjusted price of $76.25 totaling $7,625 • Strike price adjusted to $76.25 from original strike price of $80.00 due to a special cash dividend of $1.875 paid twice over the holding period of the option • Realized loss of $4,665 November 2010 • Purchased 100 shares @ $68.10 As of October 24, 2012 • Diamond offshore price: 69.52 • Currently have 150 shares with unrealized loss of -.2% • Currently represents 3 % of the total portfolio (7.6 of portfolio equity holdings)

  4. The Company • The company originally started as Diamond M Drilling company. In 1980, Loews Corp bought the distressed company’s assets. The company was renamed to Diamond offshore and held private until 1995. • Currently one of the largest off-shore drilling corporations • Headquartered in Huston, TX – Global presence (primarily in South America, Middle East, Africa, Asia and Pacific Asia) • 98% owned by 447 institutional and Mutual fund shareholders • 50.4% Owned by Loews Corporation (Jim Tisch).

  5. Macro Economic Review • The primary driver of the drilling market is energy consumption. • Easier for DO to earn contracts • Determines capacity/daily use rates of rigs • Greater demand for product naturally shifts power from buyer to supplier.

  6. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011 :

  7. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011

  8. Company Overview • Leading global offshore oil and gas drilling contractor • Customer Base • major independent oil and gas companies • government-owned oil companies • Capacity: 44 offshore rigs as June 30, 2012 • 32 semisubmersibles • 7 jack-ups • 5 dynamically positioned drillships • 4 of them are under construction: delivery expected in second and fourth quarters of 2013 and the remaining two in the second quarter of 2014 Source: Form 10Q,Diamond offshore, FY 2012

  9. The fleet Source: Form 10k,Diamond offshore, FY 2011

  10. Stock performance BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico Source: Yahoo Finance, dates from 1/1/08 – 10/24/12

  11. Competitors • Transocean (RIG): 9 Billion sales • Noble Corporation (NE): 3 Billion sales • Ensco PLC (ESV): 4 Billion sales Source: Yahoo Finance, dates from 1/1/08 – 10/24/12

  12. Business Strategy • Cost Leadership • Reduced Equipment downtime • Safety • Upgrade fleet to meet customer demand for advanced efficient and high-tech rigs • Acquire or build new rigs at attractive price • Enhance the capabilities of existing rigs at a lower cost and reduced construction period • Take advantage of industry cyclicality to make opportune investments at times of distress or when others are unwilling or unable to invest • 2009: acquired two new-build ultra-deepwater, dynamically positioned semisubmersible drilling rigs • 2010: entered into three separate turnkey contract with Hyundai for three ultra-deepwater drillships • 2012: announced the construction of a moored semisubmersible drilling rigs that will be designed to operated in water depth up to 6,000 feet Source: Form 10-K,Diamond offshore, FY 2011

  13. Business Model

  14. Revenue Drivers • Day Rates • Ultra-deepwater and deepwater: strong • successful exploration and development programs offshore Brazil and West Africa • mid-water floater: stable • Jack-up: Decline • Utilization Rate: • the actual percentage of time in a year a rig would be utilized

  15. Revenue Drivers Day Rates Utilization Rate Source: DO 10K and 10 Q 2005- 2011

  16. Financial Analysis • So…How does this company make money? • Jack ups (10 – 350 Ft) • Intermediate Submersibles (4000 ft) • Deep-water Drillships/Submersibles (greater than 4000 ft)

  17. The Fleet

  18. The Contracts

  19. The Estimates • See Excel “Estimate”

  20. So where is the revenue coming from? • Customers: DO’s five largest customers in the aggregate accounted for 62% of our consolidated revenues primarily lead by Petrobras and OGX (who accounted for approximately 35% and 14% of DO’s consolidated revenues in 2011). • Location: • 40% North America • 20% South America • 20% Africa/ Europe/Mediterranean • 20% Asia/Pacific Asia

  21. So where is the revenue leaving? • Depreciation • Bad Debt Expense • Impairment • Sell for Loss Transactions • Foreign Exchange

  22. Multiples Valuation

  23. Multiples Valuation

  24. DuPont Breakdown

  25. Historical Returns

  26. WACC Analysis

  27. DCF Analysis

  28. Recommendation: Hold • Current Stock Price:$69.52 • DCF Valuation:$67.79 • Comparable Companies Valuation:$67.06 • Recommendation: Hold 150 shares

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