Update on the 2011 Census and National Household Survey (NHS)

1. Update on the 2011 Census and National Household Survey (NHS) DLI National Training Day Simon Fraser University – Harbour Centre Martine Grenier Mary-Lynne (Mini) Reid Marie Anderson Paul Schwets May 30, 2011

2. Part 1: 2011 Census and National Household Survey – General Description / differences Communication plans / update for census and National Household Survey (NHS) What is going on out in the field? Response rates to date – What's next? Key findings from consultation Part 2: 2011 Census dissemination Census release strategy More finalized products and services line and 'walk-through' of web module with prototypes for 2011 Census web module and current / future web dissemination initiatives and opportunities Presentation outline DLI National Training Day

3. Part 3: 2011 National Household Survey (Dissemination and release strategy) Proposed NHS dissemination and release strategy principles Data quality and methodological considerations Release strategy framework 2016? Part 4: DLI – specific issues Impact on DLI community – full-cumulative profile; all levels of geography down to DA … GIS-based projects Scope and future of 'free' products NHS – Geography products General questions / comments / feedback … Presentation outline (concluded) DLI National Training Day

4. 2A and NHS Traditional mandatory census 2A form – two language questions added for knowledge and language spoken most often at home Former 2B (1 in 5 hhlds sample) replaced with voluntary National Household Survey National Household Survey same questions as the planned 2B; however, sample sized increased to 1 in 3 hhlds People completing the census 2A form online will be asked to complete the NHS if they are part of the sample – 2A questions completed on line will be copied over to the NHS form NHS form mail-out to begin first week of June Part 1: 2011 Census and NHS – General DLI National Training Day

5. Communication plans / updates Paid advertising campaign began Tuesday, May 3, 2011 Main vehicle – radio stations across the country, will continue May through to August – message will change throughout the summer Census message will gradually switch focus to 'mandatory' Working with thousands of organizations (Fed., Prov., Terr., municipal, etc.) to help educate and promote (extensively more than in 2006) … websites, inserts in mail-outs, etc. Media … interviews ongoing (HO and RO senior staff), focus on certain target groups within the population, joint / integrated regional and head office efforts Currently, a limited amount of negative publicity and reaction – monitoring closely Proactive with media to update incorrect information Part 1: 2011 Census and NHS – General (continued) DLI National Training Day

6. What's going on out in the field? Response rates to date? Status of early enumeration and NHS success rate (27,000 hhlds) Census collection Mail-out was May 3 Drop-off started May 2 As of week of May 23 … Internet responses; overall May 10 – first reminder and early non-response follow-up began NHS collection (if in sample – invite to 'continue' with NHS online) As of week of May 23 … Internet responses; overall Mail-out first week of June First follow-up in July / August June 21 – follow up with subsample and focus where response is lower, follow up as many times and as evenly as possible Collective enumeration – 55,000 collective dwellings enumerated with census questionnaire only Reserve enumeration – fewer reserves estimated to be incompletely enumerated in 2011 There were 22 reserves incompletely enumerated in 2006, down from 30 in 2001 and 77 in 1996 Part 1: 2011 Census and NHS – General (continued) DLI National Training Day

7. Key findings from consultation – Overall Census Positive feedback overall on the 2006 release strategy New census products and increased liberation of data well received Inform on product and concept changes early in the cycle Many support shorter analysis for faster results Phasing out CD-ROMs and paper not an issue for most Maintain wealth of reference documents / notes Geography Geography product line improvements appreciated Road Network File should be aligned with provincial frameworks Introduce user-defined thematic mapping functionality online Part 1: 2011 Census and NHS – General (continued) DLI National Training Day

8. Key findings from consultation – DLI specific Show the relationship between census years and census data products; connect the metadata to facilitate online searching Post a product release schedule Communicate concept, geographical changes; centralize the information Harmonize UIDs between census and geography products Historical comparability important; maintain consistency Do not eliminate GeoSuitefor 2011 and make information available in a platform neutral environment Introduce 'road class' in Road Network File Part 1: 2011 Census and NHS – General (concluded) DLI National Training Day

9. Census release strategy Similar dissemination strategy to the 2006 Census (short form), with additional language content Part 2: 2011 Census dissemination DLI National Training Day

10. Census release strategy Initial products available on 'day of release'; expanded analysis / lower-levels of geography to follow Continued national, regional and local media partnerships and coverage Release no. 3 – Families, households and marital status … Foster children / families, 'blended' families, 'step' families Release no. 4 – Language … additional 'first-time' considerations / challenges compared to 2006 Census: Mother tongue – two write-ins (to be coded / certified) Knowledge of official languages – new 2A question Language spoken most often at home (a) – new 2A question, two write-ins Language spoken regularly at home (b) – new 2A question, two write-ins Additional requirements for briefing notes, explanatory information, guidelines for historical comparability, etc. Responses – don't know what to expect – first time block of three language questions on the short form Part 2: 2011 Census dissemination DLI National Training Day

11. 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

12. Products and services line essentially 'status quo' – adjustments for content Variable / stubset standardization initiative continued for 2011 – consistency Economic regions – new level of geography being added to some key standard products Metadata … review of 'amount' and content Enhanced / expanded marketing of products and services line Notable changes More streamlined, digestible and staggered analytical release strategy Merger of 'profile-style' products Elimination of print (MP profile, print profiles, A National Overview: Population and Dwelling Counts) Incorporation of data visualization 2011 Census products and services line – General DLI National Training Day

13. Notable changes (concluded) Home page … direct route into data via topics / geography Census news / announcements sub-module Will produce a 2011 Census Research Data Centre file No plans to produce census public use microdata file (PUMF) – NHS instead Special interest profiles (SIP), official language and aboriginal peoples special DVD / CD-ROMs – not produced for census (now NHS products) Census Trends – incorporated into Visual census content No plans to produce 2011 Census Results Teacher's Kit Urban area of geography – replaced by 'population centre' Web-mapping application … GeoSearch with enhancements 2011 Census products and services line – General DLI National Training Day

14. Data products Highlight tables Highlights for each release presenting key indicators Rank, sort and charting functionality, free, downloadable Supports analytical articles Topic-based tabulations Series of simple to complex cross-tabulations, current and more historical census data – some available on day of release, some follow Census profiles Styled after 2006 Community profiles, entry points by geography, expanded stubsets Merger of community profiles, cumulative profile, FED. profile, Census Tract profiles Visual census 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

15. Analysis series More streamlined, digestible and staggered analytical release strategy: The Daily article (1 to 2 pages – all topics combined) Analytical articles (5 to 10 pages – for each topic) New, short context-setting or special topic-based fact sheetsto support analytical articles, where appropriate (2 to 3 fact sheets – 2 to 4 pages each) New geography-based fact sheetsfor census (standardized templates for provinces / territories, CMAs, potentially CAs and other key geographies) Reduced number of thematic maps, no vignettes Post-release day articles to be published via Statistic Canada's flagship publications 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

16. Reference products Preview of products and services (beginning with first version in fall of 2011) Dictionary (census) Technical reports Reference guides 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

17. Geography products and services Remain relatively unchanged from 2006 Consists of same four major groupings: maps, spatial information products, attribute information products, and reference products Proposed three dates of release: November 24, 2011; February 8, 2012; October 24, 2012 Changes in concepts – urban areas change to population centres, designated places can cross census subdivisions 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

18. Geography products and services (continued) Maps – Reference maps, GeoSearch, thematic maps First release of reference maps – November 24, 2011 National maps – census metropolitan areas / census agglomerations, census divisions, census divisions / economic regions, federal electoral districts, Statistical Area Classification Provincial / territorial maps – census divisions, census subdivisions, census metropolitan areas / census agglomerations, designated places SGC volume of reference maps – no print; maps available in PDF Second / final release of reference maps – February 8, 2012 Census subdivisions / dissemination areas, census metropolitan areas (tracted census agglomerations) / census tracts, non-tracted census agglomeratiosn / dissemination areas Reference maps available on web module in PDF – same as in 2006 (linked PDFs) 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

19. Geography products and services (continued) Maps – Reference maps, GeoSearch, thematic maps GeoSearch 2011 Similar to 2006 with some enhancements – status quo – area search, thematic maps, links to other data (i.e., census profile, reference maps) Enhancements – primary layer and secondary layer, select up to five (5) areas, selected data below the map, geographic area search now highlights the area Thematic maps Similar to 2006 – selected thematic maps available on day of release in PDF format Available for selected levels of geography (i.e., census metropolitan area / census tract) 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

20. Geography products and services (continued) Spatial information products–Road Network File, boundary files Road Network File Estimated release date: November 24, 2011 File similar to 2006 Boundary files Digital and cartographic boundary files, available in ArcInfo, MapInfo and GML formats First release November 24, 2011 will include: province, census division, economic region, census consolidated subdivision, census metropolitan area / census agglomeration, census tract, dissemination area, and federal electoral district Second / final release February 8, 2012 – designated place, population centre, dissemination block and population ecumene Looking at better geocode linkage between census data files and boundary files 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

21. Geography products and services (continued) Attribute information products –GeoSuite, Geographic Attribute File, correspondence file, postal code products GeoSuite Similar to 2006; however, downloadable CD-ROM product Geographic attribute file / correspondence file Geographic Attribute File – ASCII file that contains all dissemination blocks and codes and names of all higher geographic linkages Correspondence file – relationship between 2011 Geography and 2006 Geography (i.e., 2011 dissemination blocks to 2006 dissemination blocks) Postal code products Boundary file, postal code conversion files – similar to 2006, released October 24, 2012 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

22. Geography products and services (concluded) Reference products – Illustrated Glossary, geography reference guides, working papers, interim list of municipal changes Similar to 2006 suite of products Illustrated Glossary available on the web module with the release of the 2011 Census Population and Dwelling Counts – February 8, 2012 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

23. Changes in geographic concepts Urban areas replaced with population centres Same definition as urban areas; however, classified into three categories: Small population centre (1,000 to 29,999) Medium population centre (30,000 to 99,999) Large urban population centre (100,000+) No total for population centre groups, rural area remains Similar to 2001 – Designated places can cross census subdivision boundaries 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

24. Custom / Semi-custom products and services What is not available via standard products … for fee Through the regional offices … census custom tabulations / semi-custom tabulations (replicate content of standard TBT for a custom geo or special output medium) Semi-custom profile (fixed profile for a custom geography, i.e., school district, hospital zone, etc.) Target group profile (fixed profile for a custom target group, i.e., persons 65+, restricted to census variables only) 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

25. Microdata / Research Data Centre products and services PUMF No plans to produce census PUMF(s) For 2011 NHS, planning INDIV and Hierarchical; 2006 – INDIV 2.7% (Prov. / Terr., most CMAs), Hierarchical 1% (Region – East, ON, QC, BC, Prairies, 5 CMAs) Research Data Centre (RDC) files 1911 to 1951 – CCRI microdata files 1991 to 2006 – 100% 2B microdata files (down to CT) 1986 – currently investigating possible provision of a raw / skeleton version 1971 to 1981 – not formally considering these right now 2011 – Census 100% 2A – never done before … may go with sample – aiming for 6 months after last census release 2011 – NHS 100% … to be produced after last NHS release 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

26. Census of Agriculture Five broad categories of products Data Reference Geography Analytical Custom Data products – farm and farm operator data, Agriculture Community Profiles, historical and linkage data Farm and farm operator data – May 10, 2012 – 2006 and 2011 data for Canada, provinces and census division level, 2011 data for census consolidated subdivisions Agriculture Community Profiles – November 28, 2012 – 2011 data to census consolidated subdivisions Selected historical data for Canada, provinces – May 10, 2013 Linkage data to be determined – November 27, 2013 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

27. Census of Agriculture (concluded) Reference products – Reference maps and boundary file reference guides Available May 10, 2012 the reference maps show the boundaries, names, and codes of the census agricultural regions, census divisions and census consolidated subdivisions Geography products – Cartographic boundary files for census agricultural regions and census division ecumene, available May 10, 2012 Analytical products – Articles start in the Canadian Agricultural at a Glance – October 26, 2012 Custom products and services available by request 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

28. Census and the NHS in 'Social Media' Social Media initiatives began with 'Twitter' announcements and the development of a Mobile site, which included a scaled-down version of 2006 Census Community Profiles Looking to expand the mobile offerings in 2011 by perhaps offering scaled-down tables for each of the census and NHS releases along with data highlights Expand number of 'Tweets' during 2011 Census and NHS releases to announce / promote available data and information Researching possible 'Facebook' postings and potentially organizing 'Webinars' to announce / promote the census and NHS releases Mobile 'Apps' not currently being considered however, may be in the future 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

29. Census Web Module and current / future web dissemination initiatives and opportunities Census Web Module returns to 2011 Census dissemination 'focus' (Fall 2011) – PROTOTYPE Census Web Module as of the release of the 2011 Census Population and Dwelling Counts (February 8, 2012) – PROTOTYPE Census Web Module – we will focus on basic enhancements / updates (i.e., back-end – integrated DB across all applications / products) Incorporation of StatCan initiatives Data visualization and Social Media Integrated web mapping application Web content historical storage Improvements / integration to searching / navigation Web application data integration – census / other surveys, etc. Common database model to support CANSIM and census dissemination programs Expansion of census applications (i.e., Discussion forums / BLOGs, TBTs and Community Profile-type products) for non-census clients 2011 Census products and services line DLI National Training Day

30. Proposed NHS dissemination and release strategy principles Will make available as much information as possible from the NHS subject to confidentiality and data quality Will not proactively publish information where we know that there is a problem that makes the data unusable Will provide indicators to inform users of the data quality Products and services line will be similar to the 2006 Census (except where data quality is an issue) Part 3: 2011 National Household Survey (Dissemination and release strategy) DLI National Training Day

31. Non-response targeted follow-up Allocate non-response follow-up (NRFU) sample optimally to account for response patterns at the time of sample selection Adjust allocation to better target groups known to be at risk of poor response (e.g., immigrants, Aboriginal people, low income) Will use other auxiliary data sources to guide the imputation approach Continued refinement of options to reduce non-response bias Data quality and methodological considerations DLI National Training Day

32. Assessing the quality of the NHS results begins with early evaluation of the NHS data starting with collection (non-response rates) Certification (evaluation) of the data Will certify NHS results for each question and down to the census metropolitan area (wherever possible) Will compare NHS data with previous censuses Will use a more extensive range of other data sources to assess the 'reasonableness' of the NHS data: E.g., Citizenship and Immigration Canada data, Longitudinal Immigration Database, tax data, population projections, etc. Data quality and methodological considerations DLI National Training Day

33. Separate NHS Web Module to be developed A tiered approach to the release of products NHS General User's Guide NHS Analysis, Cross-tabulations, Profiles, Dictionary, Reference guides Basic information and analysis to be released first More detailed products will follow (e.g., tabulations / profiles at lower geographic levels) Microdata file for the RDC, NHS PUMF Custom products and services Initial releases will focus on specific NHS themes complemented by a set of release products … proposed release groupings Immigration and Ethnocultural Diversity (1st release) Aboriginal Peoples (1st release) Labour, Education, Place of work / Commuting to work (2nd release) Income, Housing (3rd release) NHS release strategy framework DLI National Training Day

34. Group tasked with delivering options and ultimately a recommendation on the methodology for the 2016 Census to the federal government Assessment of: International census models Legislative considerations (constitutional, statutory, internal obligations) Content determination framework (relevancy, access, respondent burden, privacy) 'Canadian context' … infrastructure and support data source in Canada Very tight timeframe for delivery of findings / recommendations National Statistics Council, 2016 Census Strategy Steering Committee 2016 DLI National Training Day

35. Impact on DLI community – full cumulative profile all levels of geography down to DA … GIS-based projects Scope and future of 'free' products NHS – Geography products General questions / comments / feedback … Part 4: DLI – Specific issues DLI National Training Day