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NAIOP Toronto 2009 Forecast Breakfast

Strictly Private and Confidential. NAIOP Toronto 2009 Forecast Breakfast. Disclaimer.

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NAIOP Toronto 2009 Forecast Breakfast

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  1. Strictly Private and Confidential NAIOP Toronto2009 Forecast Breakfast

  2. Disclaimer This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the recipient for the purpose of considering the transaction or transactions contemplated herein. This presentation is confidential and proprietary to RBC Capital Markets and may not be disclosed, reproduced, distributed or used for any other purpose by the recipient without our express written consent. The information and any analyses contained in this presentation are taken from, or based upon, information obtained from the recipient or from publicly available sources, the completeness and accuracy of which has not been independently verified, and cannot be assured by RBC Capital Markets. The information and any analyses in these materials reflect prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are subject to change. To the extent projections and financial analyses are set forth herein, they may be based on estimated financial performance prepared by or in consultation with the recipient and are intended only to suggest reasonable ranges of results. The printed presentation is incomplete without reference to the oral presentation or other written materials that supplement it. Employees of RBC Capital Markets are expressly prohibited from offering directly or indirectly a specific price target, or offering or threatening to change research, a rating or a price target, to a company as inducement for the receipt of business or compensation.

  3. Canadian Real GDP

  4. CBOE S&P500 Volatility Index (VIX) - 2002 – present Equity Market Volatility

  5. Canadian and U.S. Financial Index Performance - 2005 – present Financial Index Performance

  6. Canadian Labour Market

  7. Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and 10-Year GoC Yield

  8. U.S. Corporate Bond Spreads Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads Corporate Bond Spreads Source: RBC Capital Markets Source: Bloomberg

  9. Canadian CMBS Spreads Canadian CMBS Spreads Source: RBC Capital Markets

  10. U.S. High Yield Spreads Since January 2008 Spread (bps) Source: Bloomberg

  11. 2008 Index Price Performance Historical Premium/Discount to NAV REIT Index Performance and Cdn. REIT Price Premium / Discount to NAV Maximum: 28.0% Average: 5.4% -35.0% -41.5% Current: -12.4% -43.1% Maximum: -25.0% Source: RBC Capital Markets Research Note: Price only return

  12. Total Equity Capitalization of Canadian REIT Universe ($billions) Canadian REIT Universe – Equity Market Capitalization Jan-07: Summit REIT privatized, equity value of $2.1B Feb- 07: Retirement Residences REIT privatized, equity value of $780MM Apr-07: Sunrise Senior Living REIT acquired, equity value of $1.1B May-07: Alexis Nihon REIT acquired, equity value of $0.5B Aug-07: Dundee REIT: Cancellation of ~66% of its units following a large portfolio sale to GE Real Estate, equity value of $1.1B Sep-07: Legacy Hotels REIT acquired, equity value $1.5B Dec-07: CHIP REIT privatized, equity value $925MM Dec-07: IPC US REIT acquired, equity value of $425MM $14.3 Billion Jun-06: TGS NA REIT privatized, equity value of $265MM Nov-05: O&Y REIT privatized, equity value of $1.0B

  13. Canadian REIT Comparables • Based on most recent publicly available information • Estimates from RBC Research, except for Charter, Crombie, Huntingdon, Retrocom, Scott's, Whiterock, InterRent, Lanesborough, Holloway, Extendicare, BTB, Charter, Lakeview and Temple, whose estimates are consensus

  14. Canadian REIT M&A Overview: Deals Completed in 2007 • 2007 was an extremely active year for REIT M&A market in Canada, with transactions totaling ~$17 billion in value being completed acquisition of a large portfolio of real estate from, and an equity stake in acquisition of acquisition of acquisition of acquisition of acquisition of acquisition of acquisition of • Implied cap rates and FFO/AFFO multiples are based on consensus street estimates • Multiples are based on 1-year forward estimates

  15. Class ‘A’ Cap Rate Trends1 Vs. 10-Year GoC Bond Yields Multi-Tenant Industrial Single-Tenant Industrial Power Centres CBD Office Regional Mall The “rear view” nature of this information is likely causing it to underestimate current market cap rates 10-Year GoC Yield December 31, 2007 GoC: 3.99%Power: 5.90% CBD: 5.90%Multi: 6.50% Single: 6.30%Reg: 5.50% December 31, 2008 GoC: 2.69%Power: 6.80% CBD: 6.60% Multi: 7.50% Single: 7.20%Reg: 6.1% YoY Change GoC: -1.30%Power: +0.90% CBD: +0.70% Multi: +1.00% Single: +0.90%Reg: +0.60% Source: Altus InSite Investment Trends Survey Note 1: Toronto cap rates used as proxy

  16. Canadian GoC Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates 10-Year Mortgage Spread 10-Year GoC Yield Source: RBC Capital Markets

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