1 / 30

Grassroots Growth for Poverty Reduction

Grassroots Growth for Poverty Reduction. Chris Hart: Chief Strategist. 17 April 2013. Universal economic access. Global context. State of the nation. Essentials for growth and jobs. Local enablers. German Dax and Industrial Production: … Fundamentals not following markets.

cecily
Télécharger la présentation

Grassroots Growth for Poverty Reduction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Grassroots Growth for Poverty Reduction Chris Hart: Chief Strategist 17 April 2013 Universal economic access

  2. Global context State of the nation Essentials for growth and jobs Local enablers

  3. German Dax and Industrial Production:… Fundamentals not following markets Source: INet

  4. S&P500 and Earnings:Liquidity-driven momentum Source: INet

  5. QE and the US economy: hiding recession?? Source: INet

  6. QE: Short Term and Long Term Short term Stabilization Long Term Debt escalation QE Costs Small vs Large Debt: Systemic Ponzi QE escalation shortens the long term timeline

  7. QE: Central Banks starting to compete? Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis

  8. Global debt levels are acceleratingMay well be developing into a systemic PONZI scheme Systemic collapse Credit worthy capacity Systemic instability Debt Debt needed to sustain the system BCA: the debt super cycle Time Dynamics at the 11th hour, as governments compensate

  9. Excessive debt levels mean financial repression is returningA concept widely understood in the 1970’s Coined in 1973 by Shaw & McKinnon Described EMs financial systems over 1960s-80s. Same for developed economies (WWII to the 1980s) Why is it important? liquidating debt!!!

  10. How is Repression achieved? Red Tape Corruption Tax (Especially Wealth) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Tools of Repression Market Dominance Inflation/Deflation

  11. …But SA is in a good neighborhood!!African investment risk declining Africa Europe Solvency Solvency Taxes Tax Burden Jurisdiction risk is changing. ...but Neither Africa nor Europe completely homogeneous

  12. Macro-economic outcomesProof of the pudding Growth 5.1% 3.5% 3.6% 1995 2000 2011 40.1% Inflation 15.0% 8.2% Improving economic management

  13. Global context State of the nation Essentials for growth and jobs Local enablers

  14. Business and Consumer Confidence: decade lows Source: INet

  15. Retail Sales: losing monentum Source: INet

  16. Car Sales: good but cycle has peaked Source: INet

  17. SA Manufacturing: Recessionary conditions Source: INet

  18. Current Account Deficit: major risk to the rand Source: INet

  19. SA Interest Rates: low for much longer Source: INet

  20. Global context State of the nation Essentials for growth and jobs Local enablers

  21. Understanding the growth model:Credit & consumption …or…savings & investment Investment Savings Growth Essentials Property Rights Rule of Law Red Tape Investment timelines are important

  22. Unemployment | 2001 – 2011 Proof of the Pudding!! • Brazil unemployment: The Enigma • Brazil Unemployment • South Africa Unemployment

  23. Brazil & SA | Corporate Development Isolation Hyperinflation 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 Divergent Outcomes Business Perspective Corporate Concentration BRICS and Business Strategy GDP Stock Market Capitalization Small Business

  24. Indian Business Conditions | In spite of unfavorable macros: complex but thriving IMPROVING BUSINESS CONDITIONS Entrepreneurship 1 Global Vision Competitive Conglomerate 3 2 State & Private Sector Corporates & SMMEmix 5 4

  25. Job creation means employer creation…the scale needs to be understood Entrepreneurship SMME’s Household Savings Jobs Essentials Incentives Rent Seeking Appropriate Regulation Job creation must be the most important priority Poverty and inequality are consequences of unemployment

  26. Jobs, minimum wage and global competitionAll variables are relevant Wages/Jobs Tradeoff Employment Vision Price & Value China Germany Japan Technology Machinery Skills

  27. Poverty | Slums a manifestation People work where they live Lowers living costs Govt provision of water and electricity Crime rate low Very little town planning Regulatory restrictions low 1 2 3

  28. Global context State of the nation Essentials for growth and jobs Local enablers

  29. Economy must be accessible at grassroots level…avoid ‘doing things for the poor’ Educational Institutions Microeconomic Reform Town Planning Local Enablers Service Delivery Productivity Policy Priorities Cost burden must be competitive

  30. FAIS disclaimer • Investment Solutions Limited is a licensed financial services provider in terms of Section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002, as amended. • Any information in this presentation relating to any product: • Is a factual and objective description of the product • Does not constitute an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular transaction in respect the product is appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs • Is not advice as contemplated in the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act • Investment Solutions Limited shall not be liable for any damage or loss suffered resulting from any action taken by any person based on this presentation or any discussions relating to it.

More Related