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David Humphreys Rio Tinto Chief Economist Melbourne Sydney 1 March 2001 2 March 2001

David Humphreys Rio Tinto Chief Economist Melbourne Sydney 1 March 2001 2 March 2001. Metal stocks in weeks’ consumption. end year average for aluminium and copper. Forward Days Cover (OECD Commercial Stocks). Projection (with 1 Mb/d OPEC cut in 2001). Source: BP.

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David Humphreys Rio Tinto Chief Economist Melbourne Sydney 1 March 2001 2 March 2001

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  1. David Humphreys Rio Tinto Chief Economist Melbourne Sydney 1 March 2001 2 March 2001

  2. Metal stocks in weeks’ consumption end year average for aluminium and copper

  3. Forward Days Cover (OECD Commercial Stocks) Projection (with 1 Mb/d OPEC cut in 2001) Source: BP

  4. Minerals industry capacity utilisation % capacity utilisation, 5 year averages Sources: BP, IWCC, MG, Rio Tinto, EAA, James F King. Western world only for aluminium and copper.

  5. Industry exploration expenditure by region US$ billion

  6. Nonferrous metals prices The Economist $ index, 1995=100

  7. World GDP growth % change Source: Consensus Economics. World GDP uses exchange rate based weights

  8. Consensus forecasts of GDP growth for 2001 month of forecast 2000 2001

  9. OECD IP and leading indicator of IP Year on year % changes Industrial production Leading indicator of IP Source: OECD

  10. Industrial production Year on year % change Germany

  11. Shares of world GDP and metals consumption 1999

  12. North American share of metal and mineral markets Aluminium Borates 31% 39% Copper Titanium pigments 23% 33%

  13. Housing starts Year on year % changes, moving annual totals Japan USA Germany* Source: OECD * permits issued

  14. Japan, value of machinery orders Year on year % changes in 3-month moving average

  15. Electronics exports as % of total first half 2000

  16. China’s market shares % of total world demand

  17. China’s production of consumer durables Jan-Oct 2000 over Jan-Oct 1999 Source: China Metals

  18. China: steel and iron ore million tonnes Iron ore production Steel production Iron ore imports Note: Figures on the production of domestic ore have been adjusted to make them comparable with internationally traded ores.

  19. Net imports of copper to China Estimated copper content, excl scrap and brass products

  20. World refined copper balance million tonnes Production Consumption Balance Source: ICSG/Rio Tinto

  21. Copper exchange stocks and prices Monthly data, 1989 to 2000 Q1 00 Q4 00

  22. World copper consumption

  23. Copper consumption by end use 1985 1999 Industrial machinery & equpt Electrical & electronic Consumer products Construction Transport

  24. Secondary metal as a share of total consumption Western world only 1985 1999 Secondary Primary

  25. Aluminium exchange stocks and prices Monthly data, 1989 to 2000 Q1 00 Q4 00

  26. World primary aluminium balance million tonnes Consumption Production Balance Source: Rio Tinto

  27. Changes in crude steel production 1990-2000 million tonnes, change over period *Principally India, Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, Iran

  28. Steel production and iron ore prices annual % changes in HI fines and in steel production the preceding year Steel production Iron ore price Steel production is world crude steel output less that in the US and FSU (which are largely self-sufficient in iron ore.) Source IISI.

  29. Steel production and prices Year on year changes in world steel output and CRU index of world steel prices Prices (r.h. axis) Production (l.h. axis) Sources: IISI and CRU

  30. Steam coal prices in Asian market US$ per tonne fob NSWBenchmark Export unit value Spot Sources: Australian Coal Report, Barlow Jonker

  31. US electricity consumption and coal exports monthly data, moving annual totals Electricity consumption (l.h. axis) Coal exports (r.h. axis) Source: DOE/EIA

  32. Electrical power generation in the USA Gross GWh, by fuel source 2.1% a year 1.9% a year

  33. Electrical power generation in Japan Gross GWh, by fuel source 2.9% a year 6.9% a year

  34. Electrical power generation in Korea Gross GWh, by fuel source 10.9% a year 15.8% a year

  35. Electrical power generation in the EU Gross GWh, by fuel source 1.8% a year -0.9% a year

  36. Steam coal imports million tonnes 5.8% a year

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