Critical Thinking: The Platinum Core Competency

1. Critical Thinking: The Platinum Core Competency Pivotal Practices Consulting LLC Allan Schweyer August 31| 1-2pm ET

2. Host Allan Schweyer President, TMLU

3. What is Critical Thinking? • Deconstructing Arguments • Organized Thinking • Assumptions & Inferences • Probabilities and Rational Thinking

4. Why is it Important? Nearly all those surveyed (93%) say that “a demonstrated capacity to think critically, and solve complex problems is more important than [a candidate’s] undergraduate major.”

5. What is Critical Thinking?

6. Critical Thinking Analyzing and Evaluating Arguments • Identify and weigh evidence, distinguish credible evidence • Distinguish between facts, opinions and inferences (reasoned judgements) • Recognize assumptions • Recognize logical deductions • Recognize Inductive and (esp.) Deductive Reasoning • Assess strength of conclusion • Make reasoned judgments

7. Fast & Slow Thinking You mghittnihki’tsaaminzg that you can raed this with vrlialuty no diluftficuy even tuogh the ltetres are mxeid up. It trnus out that all you need are the fsrit and lsatleetrts in the crorectpcale. This is an eaxplme of your barinrnuning in aoumtaticmdoe.

8. How Many F’s? FNISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS.

9. How Many F’s? • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7

10. System 1 & 2 Thinking “Although System 2 believes itself to be where the action is, the automatic System 1 is the hero of the book” – Professor Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow “Not all actions commanded by the brain are caused by deliberation. On the contrary, it is a fair assumption that most so-called brain-caused actions being taken at this very moment in the world are not deliberated at all.” – ProfessorAntonio Damasio, Descartes Error

11. Deep Smarts

12. Sometimes, Think Deliberately & Slowly Use the chat box to share your thoughts

13. Analyzing & Evaluating Arguments

14. Arguments Analyzing and Evaluating Arguments • Identify and weigh evidence, distinguish credible evidence • Distinguish between facts, opinions and inferences (reasoned judgements) • Recognize assumptions • Recognize logical deductions • Recognize Inductive and (esp.) Deductive Reasoning • Assess strength of conclusion • Make reasoned judgments

15. Critical Thinking is always: • Manual (not automatic) • Purposeful • Aware of bias • A process, and • Systematic • Emotional • Critical Thinking should always be: • Fair and open-minded • Active and informed • Skeptical • Independent

16. Don’t Take Shortcuts

17. Ask Critical Questions “What is the probability of finding by chance a group of companies, all of whose members display the primary traits you discovered while the direct comparisons do not possess those traits? … 1 in 17 million!” – University of Colorado professor interviewing Jim Collins “Almost any organization can substantially improve its stature and performance, perhaps even become great, if it consciously applies the framework of ideas we’ve uncovered.” – Jim Collins

18. Ask Critical Questions Abbot Laboratories Circuit City Fannie Mae Gillette Kimberly Clark Kroger Nucor Phillip Morris Pitney Bowes Walgreens Wells Fargo Most of these supposedly great companies (which were the subject of the book) performed terribly after the book was published.

19. Organized Thinking

20. A Simple Guide Aldo didn’t study at all for his exams and he passed them all with flying colors. Reasons Anyone taking an exam should stop studying! Conclusion For an argument to be sound the reasons must outweigh the conclusion.

21. Reasons vs. Conclusions Reasons Some politicians and business people say global warming is a hoax, possibly invented by foreign governments plotting the collapse of our economy, or perhaps by scientists greedily seeking funding for their research. Conclusion We should ignore Canada and similar evil nations in Europe, Asia and elsewhere, and we should silence our selfish scientists.

22. Reasons vs. Conclusions Reasons Some celebrities and politicians tell us that vaccinations can cause autism. Even my pediatrician can’t tell me with 100% certainty that a vaccination won’t harm my child. Conclusion I should refuse to vaccinate my children.

23. Bloom’s Taxonomy Read about vaccinations, their origin, side effects, etc. Rephrase what you’ve learned in your own works, i.e., Vaccines work by … Sometimes they cause … Think about what you’ve learned, i.e., vaccines were develop because … X number of people receive them each year, etc. People are concerned for what reasons 1. Incidents in which autism appears soon after shots. 2. Government conspiracy. 3. … What would happen without vaccines? How many people develop symptoms each year? What motive does government have to cover up evidence? Etc. Your decision based on deconstructing and evaluating the arguments, asking questions, recognizing bias

24. Assumptions & Inferences

25. Assumptions An assumption is a claim or belief that is presumed true without necessarily being warranted or justified. – John Butterworth and Geoff Thwaites The premises of many arguments are assumptions. The conclusion rests on one or more assumptions. If one or more of the assumptions can be shown to be false or unwarranted, then the argument must be judged unsound. Calling a claim or belief an assumption means that it is questionable, open to challenge, or in need of justification. It does not mean that it is necessarily false or unacceptable.

26. Fact or Fiction ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

27. The Billytown 6pm News We have some breaking news this evening about the rash of Food Poisoning in Billytown Just minutes ago, town food safety inspector, Dr. Strombel, announced that four of the people who were found to have food poisoning in the recent spate of incidents to hit Billytown, had eaten fish at Brazzozo Restaurant on Main Street. The inspector was quoted as saying ‘Any establishment that is found to be responsible for food-related sickness will be closed by the authorities and not permitted to reopen until it has been given a certificate of fitness from hygiene inspectors.’ Earlier this evening,Brazzazo Restaurant closed its doors.”

28. Probabilities

29. Betty • Betty is single, outspoken and smart. • As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice.

30. So which is more probable? • Betty is a bank teller. • Or • Betty is a bank teller and is active in the civil rights movement.

31. Bayes Theorem (For Rational Thinking) • You feel under the weather. • You go to an Internet Health site to see what’s wrong • A description of a fatal disease catches your eye. It’s become a very serious global problem, in fact more than 70,000 people are currently suffering from it. • You look closely at the list of 20 symptoms. You have all but one of them. Now you’re scared. This is solid evidence that you have the disease. • 19 of 20 symptoms is 95%. Does this mean there’s a 95% chance you have the disease?

32. Thinking Analytically (not emotionally) • Bayes Theorem says you need two more things • 1. The chance that you of all people should have this serious disease • 2. The likelihood that you would exhibit all the symptoms you’re exhibiting at once • You learn that 1/100,000 people have the disease at any given time (hence 70,000 out of 7 billion) • You learn that 1/100 people exhibit the symptoms of the disease (headache, sore throat, runny nose, aches, etc.) at once, at any given time.

33. Bayes Theorem In simple terms, 1. You take the evidence of having the disease based on your symptoms. It’s very high at 95%. 2. You multiply it by the odds that you of all people might actually have the disease (barring the evidence/symptoms): 1 in 100,000. 3. You divide by the odds that you would exhibit the symptoms at any given time: 1/100. .95 x .00001 / .01 =.00095 The probability that you have the disease? Less than 1 in one thousand

34. Behind The Doors 115

35. Stay or Switch? • There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. • You pick a door. You’re hoping for the car of course. • Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one of them. There is a goat behind it. • He gives you the option, do you want to stick with the door you chose or change your guess to the other unopened door? • What do you do and why?

36. Again, there are 3 doors. Behind one sits the grand prize. You choose a door. Monty says “Ok” and then he opens one of the two remaining doors. Behind it is a goat. That means the grand prize is either behind the door you chose or the other closed door. Monty asks: “Would you like to switch doors?” • What do you do? • Nothing, either way, the odds are 50-50 • Or • I select the other door, the one I didn’t choose

37. 1/3 1/3 1/3 2/3

38. Your original choice The only door Monty doesn’t open

39. Critical thinking can be …. Critical. In life and at work When it’s important, slow down and think “outside of the amygdala.” Question conventional thinking, listen to your intuition and let it warn you when something doesn’t sound right. Ask yourself, do the reasons outweigh the conclusion? Consider the assumptions others want you to buy into Think carefully about probabilities, balance your emotions against the facts.