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Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World

Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011. Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World. Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: The World? Europe? Individual EU Countries?

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Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World

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  1. Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011 Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: • The World? • Europe? • Individual EU Countries? • What Might a Renewable Future Look Like?

  2. Can Renewables Power the World? Jacobson & Delucci, Stanford University, Scientific American 2009 & Energy Policy 2011 World Power Demand by 2030: 11.5-16.9 TW (c.f. 16 TW now) Supplied by: WIND: 3.8 million wind turbines SOLAR: 1,700 milllion rooftop PV systems; 49,000 Concentrating Solar plants PV 40,000 Large Plants WATER: 490,000 tidal turbines WAVE: 720,000 Wave plants HYDRO 900 Large Plants Geothermal: 5,350 Plants C.f. world production of cars & light trucks: 73 million/yr

  3. Greenpeace Energy [R]Evolution & Reference Scenarios [R]Evolution in 2050: Renewables >80% of (Reduced) Demand

  4. WWF Energy Report 2011 • 95% of World Energy Renewable by 2050 • Detailed Analysis & Scenarios by Ecofys

  5. Energy Establishment Catches Up? IEA Blue Map & High Renewables Scenarios In IEA Blue Map Scenario Renewables supply 48% of World Electricity in 2050 In IEA BLUE hi REN Scenario Variant, Renewables Supply 75% of World Electricity by 2050

  6. Can Renewables Power Europe? European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) 2050 Scenario • Renewables Provide c.95% of EU Final Energy by 2050

  7. European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 Report, 2010 Various Pathways to 40%-100% Energy from Renewables by 2050 Authors: Mc Kinsey Imperial College Oxford Economics KEMA, ECF

  8. What Could it Look Like?Energy REvolution Vision • Supergrid Linking EU & North Africa • Wind & Solar are Complementary • Smart Grids in Cities • Local Mini & Micro Grids

  9. Coping with Variability: Combining Regional Demands Reduces Volatility Big Monthly and Daily Variations for Individual Countries (Grey) Variations Greatly Reduced When Combined (Green)

  10. Renewable & Energy-Efficient Cities & Suburbs • Low Energy Buildings, Old and New • Roofs and Facades Produce Power & Heat • Local Combined Heat & Power Plants

  11. Low/Zero Carbon Scenarios for Individual European Countries • UK: Zero Carbon Britain: 100% by 2030. c.f. UK Climate Committee: 60% by 2030, 80% by 2050 • ?Mark Barrett SeeScen Model? • Germany: Ministry of Environment & Nature Conservation (BMU) Report => • Denmark. Danish Society of Engineers, 2009 • Danish Climate Commission, 2010 • Scenarios for Spain, France, Finland, Turkey etc..

  12. Danish Climate Commission Report 2010 • Fossil fuels phased out: 100% renewable energy by 2050

  13. Conclusion: Renewables Can Supply World’s Energy Needs by 2050 • Total costs similar to to conventional energy incl. fuel • Job creation • No/low carbon & pollutant emissions • Energy Security • Technology exists • But Strong Political Commitment Required! • www.open.ac.uk

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